cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Regarding the more northerly track of the 850mb low, wouldn't the tanking heights help offset the relative unfavorable track of the 850mb low? That's the way I see it just by eyeballing how things evolve with the deformation development tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 the tanking heights should help to give it a more Eastward nudge I don't see this thing coming right over the Quad Cities or Rockford lets say. The heights falling should send this more towards Quincy-Galesburg-Kankakee or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 It seems pretty unanimous there will be a break for much of the overnight period until the deformation zone/band moves in early to mid morning. The WRF NMM doesn't have it moving in until about 9. The good side to this is the band is all snow because by then thicknesses have collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Final calls (some exact, some ranges): La Crosse: 3-4" over Madison: 6-7" under 7 Cedar Rapids: 5-6" 5.5" Quad Cities: 4-5" under 5 Bowme/Airport: 3.8" under Myself: 4.0" under Alek: 1.3" exact ORD: 1.9" exact LAF: 0.5" exact Mt. Geos: 3.1" under looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 looks solid I wanted to go lower for us, and perhaps for the Quad Cities so as not to jinx them, but part of me says they make the most sense. Most of the hi-res models have it ripping for us at some point in time late morning or afternoon for us and NE Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Defo. or not, we are in line for some nice LES. Would be nice to see some synoptic action, though, as the LES 40 miles inland isn't as exciting. But hey, snow is snow is snow is snow. Yes, please! http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=GRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Grid points in SE MN backed off on amounts I see. Interesting weather info Justin! Edit: Looks like the thunderstorms/heavy convection in IN is about an hour ahead of schedule compared to where the RAP sim. radar has it back towards the Wabash River, IN/IL state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I wanted to go lower for us, and perhaps for the Quad Cities so as not to jinx them, but part of me says they make the most sense. Most of the hi-res models have it ripping for us at some point in time late morning or afternoon for us and NE Illinois. I wouldn't have changed anything by more than a half inch or inch.. real solid amounts you have. hopefully no crappy surprises to your amounts and if there is I think its us for some reason *shrugs* w/e happens happens though here and I wont complain as this is all bonus snow to me as I never even had any more than a DAB expectations on my radar.. be real nice to have some real system snow though instead of that instant sublimation fluff over half of ours has been this winter. GL all and hopefully that next clipper hits those to the south with a nice little event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I wouldn't have changed anything by more than a half inch or inch.. real solid amounts you have. hopefully no crappy surprises to your amounts and if there is I think its us for some reason *shrugs* w/e happens happens though here and I wont complain as this is all bonus snow to me as I never even had any more than a DAB expectations on my radar.. be real nice to have some real system snow though instead of that instant sublimation snow over half of ours has been this winter. GL all and hopefully that next clipper hits those to the south with a nice little event.. Good luck to you. You ( and Chicago area posters ) sure have waited long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 00z Euro still looks good for east-central Iowa, with ~0.45" liquid in CR. Latest RAP and HRRR also focus the heaviest snow over east-central Iowa between 6 and 9 am. Time for bed. Hopefully, I'll wake up to good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 00z Euro still looks good for east-central Iowa, with ~0.45" liquid in CR. Latest RAP and HRRR also focus the heaviest snow over east-central Iowa between 6 and 9 am. Time for bed. Hopefully, I'll wake up to good news. Nice. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Good luck to you. You ( and Chicago area posters ) sure have waited long enough. Thanks a lot, Harry and same to you with the LES. wish this was a wider and more substantial sub-forum event because outside of the already rich and detroit a lot of us are still looking for that 6"+ warning event and we're heading in to feb already Not saying winter storm chances are over by any means but.. between ct blizz's energy met pets telling him winter is over after the 15th and Rodger going record heat the 2nd half of Feb scares me some. I haven't been poking around the forum as much but last I read a few days back I don't think HM is on board with winter totally ending after Feb 15th and I think he mentioned a cool spring could be in the offering but that could be focused more in the east.. Last thing we need here and out west is another dry and torched spring in to early summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 00z Euro still looks good for east-central Iowa, with ~0.45" liquid in CR. Latest RAP and HRRR also focus the heaviest snow over east-central Iowa between 6 and 9 am. Time for bed. Hopefully, I'll wake up to good news. yeah you guys in Iowa and into sw wisconsin look to rip tit for a bit. quad cities too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 yeah you guys in Iowa and into sw wisconsin look to rip tit for a bit. quad cities too. Last post tonight so I can get up bright and early, but I think the Euro would support the 3-4" Milwaukee and 1-2" Chicago call. Lock those ranges in. Anyway, good luck and good night everyone, hopefully all can overachieve, especially Chitown (except Alek and Chistorm who want their DAB+ calls to work out). . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like Madison is on the Rain/snow line now. 39° here now. GL to everyone that is forecasted to have snow tonight! Hopefully there are some good surprises tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Last post tonight so I can get up bright and early, but I think the Euro would support the 3-4" Milwaukee and 1-2" Chicago call. Lock those ranges in. Anyway, good luck and good night everyone, hopefully all can overachieve, especially Chitown (except Alek and Chistorm who want their DAB+ calls to work out). . yup now no whammies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like Madison is on the Rain/snow line now. 39° here now. GL to everyone that is forecasted to have snow tonight! Hopefully there are some good surprises tomorrow! Lone rock observed 30 minutes of snow before precip ended. Kinda lame for the changeover to occur just as the dry slot hits. Surface temps are above freezing too so we probably won't see any accumulation on the ground until the real band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ARK cut totals big time though radar looks halfway decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Impressive DGZ here tomorrow evening off the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Anyone with a call for accumulating snow in LOT tomorrow (myself included) is going to bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Radar has a more northerly movement than I expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I can't believe a fell for the NAM again...such a weenie move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I can't believe a fell for the NAM again...such a weenie move At least you made a call...as I like to say, "There's a little weenie in all of us". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I can't believe a fell for the NAM again...such a weenie move I can't believe a fell for the NAM again...such a weenie move I can't believe a fell for the NAM again...such a weenie move It wasn't just the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I can't believe a fell for the NAM again...such a weenie move hellacious winter for you. At least my futility years garnered about 20". I can't even fathom a winter stuck in the single digits. Still time for a turnaround though. Maybe Morch will fail this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ARK fell to the 0z NAM too. Now they may bust low in some pLaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like the GFS beat about 12 other models. Massive dry slot not looking good for northern IL. You can easily pick out the rain/snow line with the RHO product on GR2AE.. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/856/dualpol.png/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Kudos to the GFS. It laughs in the faces of the meso models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Fresh off the printer........ MKE/mby: T-1" ORD: T-1" I kid, I kid, but back to ultimate pessimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 So I got up this morning hoping for a couple inches already and temps into the upper 20s, but see just a dusting and 33 degree temps. Went out and measured it and got 0.4". After looking at the models and radar though, I was surprised to see that it looks we're still on for a pretty good event. I'm not guessing amounts because I don't want to jinx it. An area of moderate snow is just starting to move in and I've got 32 degrees now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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