cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 St. Louis WRF also decent for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Must be my browser. EDIT: Nevermind LMAO!! I can't bold sentences/words when I copy and paste AFDs either. It's not just you. 0z RGEM, weenie blob for our NE IL friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Must be my browser. EDIT: Nevermind LMAO!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Where do you copy & paste the AFDs from? COD's text site seems to be the cleanest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Where do you copy & paste the AFDs from? COD's text site seems to be the cleanest. Usually just off the NWS site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 bold works just fine. Cyclone is right, it doesn't work in that font, I noticed the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Usually just off the NWS site. I tried using COD's, and was able to bold it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE ARRANGEMENT AS IS THIS EVENING. WHILE THERE IS SOME OMINOUS SIGNALS IN MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS EACH RUN OF THE RAP...AS WELL AS THE 00Z NAM...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN HITTING 6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF THE CURRENT WARNING COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE SECONDARY DEFORMATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE...AND THIS IS THE REASON THAT THE HEADLINES COULD BE UPGRADED AND SPREAD FARTHER EAST...HOWEVER...THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THIS DEFORMATION WOULD HAVE TO BE VERY CONFIDENT TO DO THIS. THE 00Z GEM...HAS THIS DEF ZONE ONLY OVER THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE AT ALL. I FEEL THIS IS A SYMPTOM OF THE GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ROBBING THE CIRCULATION OF MOISTURE...WHICH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ACCURATE. ANYWAY...WE HAVE A 3 TO 5 INCH ACCUMULATION IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES...WITH WIND...THUS A HIGH END ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. IF THIS AREA DOES NEED AN UPGRADE...A LATE NIGHT...FULLY INFORMED DECISION IS LIKELY OK GIVEN THAT SNOW IS NOT LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNTIL 10 TO 13Z...WHEN A NEW FORECAST CYCLE WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE. I.E. SOME LEAD TIME CAN EXIST IN THAT WINDOW...AND DECISION SUPPORT CAN BE PERFORMED. ERVIN Try using COD's page. http://kamala.cod.edu/il/latest.fxus63.KDVN.html Edit: Well...it shows up in the preview mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sticking to 2.3" for ORD. T for the surface of the sun in downtown Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Mighty fine dry slot up into SC/SE Kansas between the cold and warm sector precip.... that is gonna have to be watched closely. Also looks to me like everything has just about rounded the base down there in the panhandle area so this isn't going to dig really any further. That surface front is not really as far to the East as I thought it'd be. So many conflicting signals with the models in terms of snowfall accumulations, this is a tough call if you're in the hot seat making decisions in the DVN/ARX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Mighty fine dry slot up into SC/SE Kansas between the cold and warm sector precip.... that is gonna have to be watched closely. Also looks to me like everything has just about rounded the base down there in the panhandle area so this isn't going to dig really any further. That surface front is not really as far to the East as I thought it'd be. So many conflicting signals with the models in terms of snowfall accumulations, this is a tough call if you're in the hot seat making decisions in the DVN/ARX CWA. One of our mets showed the low on his graphics as being on the WI/IL border just SW of Madison/Janesville. That can't be right can it? Is that maybe the 850mb low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 One of our mets showed the low on his graphics as being on the WI/IL border just SW of Madison/Janesville. That can't be right can it? Is that maybe the 850mb low? That would be the 850mb low yes, you want that to stay to your Southeast. If that goes overhead then the accumulating snow is off to your West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I think Alek will hit an inch. Still riding my call for over at ORD. Milwaukee could be double their biggest snowfall this year so far. NMM shows some convection feeding into the deformation band on this map. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 That would be the 850mb low yes, you want that to stay to your Southeast. If that goes overhead then the accumulating snow is off to your West. Well it is off to our WSW right now, but that is probably not an issue, as the low is out ahead of the deformation zone snows, and is probably moving due east or east northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Mighty fine dry slot up into SC/SE Kansas between the cold and warm sector precip.... that is gonna have to be watched closely. Also looks to me like everything has just about rounded the base down there in the panhandle area so this isn't going to dig really any further. That surface front is not really as far to the East as I thought it'd be. So many conflicting signals with the models in terms of snowfall accumulations, this is a tough call if you're in the hot seat making decisions in the DVN/ARX CWA. Given the GFS (see instant weather map for snow fall) and the RGEM coupled with the latest radar info, especially the regional mosaic and ARX, I suspect that ARX wil not be a bust. Going with 5" in gosaint's back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Mighty fine dry slot up into SC/SE Kansas between the cold and warm sector precip.... that is gonna have to be watched closely. Also looks to me like everything has just about rounded the base down there in the panhandle area so this isn't going to dig really any further. That surface front is not really as far to the East as I thought it'd be. So many conflicting signals with the models in terms of snowfall accumulations, this is a tough call if you're in the hot seat making decisions in the DVN/ARX CWA. Yeah sure has been a challenge. I went with 4.2" earlier today for the QC, but if I were actually making a forecast for the public I'd probably just go with a 2-4", similar to the DVN NWS. Potential is there for more, but deep moisture access might be cut off by that NE/SW oriented convection. Worse case scenario should still give the QC a few inches I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Well it is off to our WSW right now, but that is probably not an issue, as the low is out ahead of the deformation zone snows, and is probably moving due east or east northeast. Both the GFS and NAM have it southeast of here, so I don't think anyone in WI has to worry about it crossing the state at any point. Crosses near Gary, by the looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not bad. I'll go with.. Hawkeye/Natester: 4.8" DLL/Saints: 3.2" Dubuque: 6.0" Turtle: 6.6" Bowme: 5.2" QC: 4.2" Here: 4.0" Chicago Storm: 2.5" Geos!: 3.2" Alek: 1.4" LAF crowd: 0.6" Still gonna ride with this. I'm gonna keep riding the high-res models, even if I go down in flames lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Both the GFS and NAM have it southeast of here, so I don't think anyone in WI has to worry about it crossing the state at any point. Crosses near Gary, by the looks of it. It looks like on most models even West Michigan gets in on some of the defo. snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It looks like on most models even West Michigan gets in on some of the defo. snows. No doubt the high resolution models do at some point. Hate to say it, but it's going to be close for you if those models are right. Keep your fingers crossed the Canadian models are right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The mid level low that drives the accumulating snow band works its way into Northern Illinois and probably from there will take on a bit more E or ENE movement as is typically favored climatologically speaking. That will still scoot snowfall across NE IL/metro Chicago. The only concern I'm seeing from looking at the system right now on satellite and radar is the cold sector precip appears to be setting up nicely from SW to NE Iowa as we speak- can see some returns breaking out too up into Western Wisconsin and Southeast Minnesota where the atmosphere is starting to moisten up. As others have pointed out too the cold sector is effectively cut off from that stream of moisture but that mid and upper air low is doing an effective job at yanking the moisture back into that cold air. Dynamics are certainly fun to watch in set ups like this but can be a pain to call because its highly dependent on mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Temp bouncing around 33.5 F. Rain lightening up again but holding on, and better precip approaching from the west. Starting my run now, hoping it changes over by the time I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Gotta love that coupled jet structure. Tremendous powerhouse in the mid-upper levels... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No doubt the high resolution models do at some point. Hate to say it, but it's going to be close for you if those models are right. Keep your fingers crossed the Canadian models are right! Surprise, surprise! The GFS and NAM (to some extent) are showing it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Temp bouncing around 33.5 F. Rain lightening up again but holding on, and better precip approaching from the west. Starting my run now, hoping it changes over by the time I'm done. Looks you will be over to snow by 2am per the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Final calls (some exact, some ranges): La Crosse: 3-4" Madison: 6-7" Cedar Rapids: 5-6" Quad Cities: 4-5" Bowme/Airport: 3.8" Myself: 4.0" Alek: 1.3" ORD: 1.9" LAF: 0.5" Mt. Geos: 3.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It looks like on most models even West Michigan gets in on some of the defo. snows. Defo. or not, we are in line for some nice LES. Would be nice to see some synoptic action, though, as the LES 40 miles inland isn't as exciting. But hey, snow is snow is snow is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Would think that RGEM run is the max for here, if not too much if everything were to go perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Defo. or not, we are in line for some nice LES. Would be nice to see some synoptic action, though, as the LES 40 miles inland isn't as exciting. But hey, snow is snow is snow is snow. Where are you at right now? Indeed, we are in for some good Lake effect snow. I think I am also ready for some snow that doesn't melt and compact the second a warmup occurs...hence, synoptic snow would be good. We might be able to lay down a one to a couple inch base of synoptic/defo. snow first, which would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Would think that RGEM run is the max for here, if not too much if everything were to go perfectly. rgem.gif That looks beautiful for "the zone". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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