Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 High res. NAM showing +SN in Chicago tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Seriously, we're past the point of these longer range models having much use. It's time for the hi-res short term models and nowcasting. Sorry we were looking at the LONG RANGE NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Down to 35.2F - about 4 degrees in past 2.5 hours. Light rain falling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm still gonna ride my calls I made earlier today several pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sorry we were looking at the LONG RANGE NAM! The seriously was more of a nervous reaction to digesting all this model information when I'm right on the SE edge of the heftier totals. Only a suggestion, I was told with the last storm within 36 hours that I should not be fretting over the NAM, GFS, Euro, etc as it was nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The seriously was more of a nervous reaction to digesting all this model information when I'm right on the SE edge of the heftier totals. Only a suggestion, I was told with the last storm within 36 hours that I should not be fretting over the NAM, GFS, Euro, etc as it was nowcast time.I really do agree but I trust the NAM as much as I do the RAP at this time range.. From what I have seen you have as good as chance as anyone of true excitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 I really do agree but I trust the NAM as much as I do the RAP at this time range.. From what I have seen you have as good as chance as anyone of true excitement Yeah, I'm as worried about what my call would be as I am of the actual storm. The last week has already been quite exciting so I can't complain even if I get a slushy 1-2" on the backside, though it would be nice to have enough to alter temps by a good five degrees or so later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 What I like about the RAP is that if you don't like a particular run, just wait an hour and try again. I was getting down on the 0z RAP but now the 1Z put the big weenie bands back in. Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 The 21z SREF shifted ever so slightly south and east, at least with the SE extent of the heavier mean totals. Jackpot verbatim would be from Dubuque to about Fon du Lac or Sheboygan (just north of Saukville as well). Quite beefy with mean three hour snowfall amounts, although that's probably normal for the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 What I like about the RAP is that if you don't like a particular run, just wait an hour and try again. I was getting down on the 0z RAP but now the 1Z put the big weenie bands back in. Woohoo! Ya the jack pot on that thing is highly variable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 33F and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The 21z SREF shifted ever so slightly south and east, at least with the SE extent of the heavier mean totals. Jackpot verbatim would be from Dubuque to about Fon du Lac or Sheboygan (just north of Saukville as well). Quite beefy with mean three hour snowfall amounts, although that's probably normal for the SREF. 3hour max snowfall on the sref is fun to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 New RGEM looked pretty sweet for northern IL and southern Wisconsin. Does really well for Milwaukee, and pretty good for Chicago as well. Especially the northern/western burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GFS won't budge any further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 0z GFS backs off the gas a little. Alek will be pleased. Snow band is farther west, speaking for those on the northwest fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GFS won't budge any further Though it does break chi towns futility streak!!, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Though it does break chi towns futility streak!!, That's been broken already. The 1 inch deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 New RGEM looked pretty sweet for northern IL and southern Wisconsin. Does really well for Milwaukee, and pretty good for Chicago as well. Especially the northern/western burbs. So does the RPM. Has Milwaukee in snow between 3-4am, and here by 7am. I think it's short changing SE WI a bit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Taking that 0.3" to the bank, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Taking that 0.3" to the bank, folks. Any new thoughts or are you going to stick with T? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Precip never stopped completely but now the light rain and reflectivity are increasing. Radar shows 5 mile wide microbands all across Wisconsin, not quite sure I've seen that before. 1.7" rain so far and down to 33.7 F, gonna be crazy once we go below 32 F with all the rainwater running down the streets and the puddles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Saints- Completely bomb of a forecast here? All i needed was a few inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 So does the RPM. Has Milwaukee in snow between 3-4am, and here by 7am. I think it's short changing SE WI a bit though. rpm2.png Seemingly all the short-term high-res models are much better for eastern areas. GFS all on it's own in leaving northern IL relatively snowless. Gotta side with the majority, but of course the GFS makes one a bit nervous lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Interesting stat from Skilling.. "Found 19 of 21 of the 60-deg spells in Januarys here were followed by measurable snow (at least 0.1”)—and that 12 of them saw 1”+ totals; 8 were followed by 4”+ tallies; 4 had 6” or more and just one---1967—was followed by 23”" Bump. Skilling just confirmed that these stats are for the week following a 60+ day...not just the 24hrs following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Any new thoughts or are you going to stick with T? I suppose a couple of tenths isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Saints- Completely bomb of a forecast here? All i needed was a few inches! Mostly likely a bust..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 DVN sort of tossing the GFS in this latest update a bit ago... .UPDATE...I WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT HEADLINE ARRANGEMENT AS IS THIS EVENING.WHILE THERE IS SOME OMINOUS SIGNALS IN MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH ASEACH RUN OF THE RAP...AS WELL AS THE 00Z NAM...THERE IS NOT ENOUGHCONFIDENCE IN HITTING 6 INCH ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF THE CURRENTWARNING COUNTIES TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THESECONDARY DEFORMATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE...AND THIS IS THE REASONTHAT THE HEADLINES COULD BE UPGRADED AND SPREAD FARTHEREAST...HOWEVER...THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THIS DEFORMATION WOULD HAVETO BE VERY CONFIDENT TO DO THIS. THE 00Z GEM...HAS THIS DEF ZONEONLY OVER THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE THIS FEATURE ATALL. I FEEL THIS IS A SYMPTOM OF THE GFS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACKROBBING THE CIRCULATION OF MOISTURE...WHICH DOES NOT LOOK TO BEACCURATE. ANYWAY...WE HAVE A 3 TO 5 INCH ACCUMULATION IN THEADVISORY COUNTIES...WITH WIND...THUS A HIGH END ADVISORY IS INPLACE. IF THIS AREA DOES NEED AN UPGRADE...A LATE NIGHT...FULLYINFORMED DECISION IS LIKELY OK GIVEN THAT SNOW IS NOT LIKELY TO BESIGNIFICANT UNTIL 10 TO 13Z...WHEN A NEW FORECAST CYCLE WILLALREADY BE IN PLACE. I.E. SOME LEAD TIME CAN EXIST IN THATWINDOW...AND DECISION SUPPORT CAN BE PERFORMED.ERVIN EDIT: Apparently the bold doesn't work anymore. Neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 bold works just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 RGEM targets NE IL - as Cyclone said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 bold works just fine. Must be my browser. EDIT: Nevermind LMAO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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