Nelson Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Down from 41.2F to 39.5F in the last 15 minutes so it looks like temps are going to plunge rather quickly... I'm going with 6.8" IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Well now that we are within 24 hours, I would trust local RPMs like Skillings a bit more. Local mets still only going with 1-3" from Milwaukee south and back west to Walworth County, so I would assume similar or slightly greater amounts for Rockford. Perhaps they will end up busting significantly. Will see how the temperature drop goes, but I think they're going to have adjust those numbers before daybreak tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 don't be fooled, his RPM busts regardless of time It tends to, but I feel it used to be semi-useful. At least, I remember it being a tool worth mentioning when I started posting a couple years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Will see how the temperature drop goes, but I think they're going to have adjust those numbers before daybreak tomorrow. I'm 100% no worried about the temperature drop...the issue is weather a legit defo band swings through this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 First and final call for Chicago 2.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm 100% no worried about the temperature drop...the issue is weather a legit defo band swings through this far east. I was focusing on SE WI on that comment, but yeah if the RAP is any indication then there might be an issue with it holding off till later in the day before it swings in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 First and final call for Chicago 2.3" ORD or downtown? Either way, likely to bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 NAM last 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 again, noticeable weakening trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 again, noticeable weakening trend Oh well. I'd rather have a weaker east trend and get an inch or two than completely miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 again, noticeable weakening trend Story of last two winters even when we get a storm it becomes less and less of a storm the closer we get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Every consecutive run of the rap moves snow south. Now southern Iowa ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ARX gonna bust hard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Compare the warm side of the storm to the cold right now and one shakes there head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 +1 RAP was pretty close with the solstice storm, but had too sharp of a cutoff next to the dryslot I remember. Oh well. I'd rather have a weaker east trend and get an inch or two than completely miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ARX gonna bust hard... Yes but I don't know if they are the only ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ORD or downtown? Either way, likely to bust. Lol And that is for ORD, not your place on the surface of the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Lol And that is for ORD, not your place on the surface of the sun. Nah he's down there with Hades! Torch city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Anyone know what's going on with the banding features on the back side of the precip? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Almost looks like lake effect but it's not. Curious to know what causes that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Nam shows a craptastic elongated low at the start. I hope someone makes out well with this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Nam shows a craptastic elongated low at the start. I hope someone makes out well with this thing doesn't look half bad at 6hr. Sfc low in IL a bit southeast already of 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 doesn't look half bad at 6hr. Sfc low in IL a bit southeast already of 18z run. Our idea of half bad had changed in the last 2 years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Pretty good shift west for the DMX and ARX CWAs with the snow band on the NAM, versus its prior runs. ARX had it all along... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 All in all though, the NAM remains a pretty crappy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 LOL... The only consistent spots are where the lake enhances it... I need to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_027.gif Man that's almost identical to 12/20, just a lot lighter in the main band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Down to 34.5 F on top of the meteorology building, nearing wintry precip temps and we're still in the outer reaches of the convective complex! Up to 1.7" at MSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Man that's almost identical to 12/20, just a lot lighter in the main band. I agree our 6 inches is 3 and midtown 15 is 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Seriously, we're past the point of these longer range models having much use. It's time for the hi-res short term models and nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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