Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 0z GFS says move along, nothing to see...except for those in northern WI/the western UP. Euro/GFS in agreement now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Do you think the non-Euro models are on the right track with a decent deformation zone on the back side of the low? It seems a potent low like this should produce backside snow for someone, but the Euro seems steadfast in giving no snow to anyone in the region besides light snow to the Upper Midwest with the first weaker system tomorrow night. There is moisture there, a decently strong low pressure wave, and good jet orientation/energy to provide a good quick hitting back side snow I'm sure. The really cold air dropping in is also going to wring out the moisture too. I certainly wouldn't look for much more than three to five inches though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 00z GEM still showing a decent hit for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 00z GEM still showing a decent hit for Chicago. lol and what Gino had to say when talking GEM with him..."Clinging to that GEM like an alcoholic tries to suck liquor out of a stick of deodorant, eh?!" Gotta say though the GEM has been consistent and the first to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 lol and what Gino had to say when talking GEM with him..."Clinging to that GEM like an alcoholic tries to suck liquor out of a stick of deodorant, eh?!" Gotta say though the GEM has been consistent and the first to show it. P6_GZ_D5_PN_066_0000.gif It seems for all intents and purposes we have two camps, then the Euro; the UKMET and GFS eject a stronger secondary through the Western Lakes (Chicago or Milwaukee cutter) with mostly rain for those two cities), while the NAM and GEM are weaker and further SE with the secondary, but are solid for some backside snow in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It seems for all intents and purposes we have two camps, then the Euro; the UKMET and GFS eject a stronger secondary through the Western Lakes (Chicago or Milwaukee cutter) with mostly rain for those two cities), while the NAM and GEM are weaker and further SE with the secondary, but are solid for some backside snow in Chicago. The GEM at one point had a pretty amped solution with a sub 980mb low in northern lower MI. Hopefully the Euro can latch onto something with the 00z run. BTW GFS ensemble mean has 979mb low just north of Lake Huron at hr60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 If anything the 0z Euro is a weaker version of the NAM, it does have some cold sector QPF from central IL-Gary-central MI. It's not much but a small step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 If anything the 0z Euro is a weaker version of the NAM, it does have some cold sector QPF from central IL-Gary-central MI. It's not much but a small step in the right direction. I think this may be one of those rare situations where the Euro is the last to the party. It is still the weakest and furthest east with the secondary, but is starting to trend slower and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The Canadian, although with little support it seems, is awesome. Roughly 0.44" of snow for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I actually have some confidence in seeing snow from the backside of this storm in Chicago, but then again it's been a while so maybe optimism trumps reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Looks like a UP event.... Could be a big storm for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 FWIW some of the long-range hi-res guidance looks good for a quick hit from RFD up to MKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 nice defo band on the NAM...pretty far west EDIT: good hit QC up towards MKE...Omega bomb over RFD, probably off the charts VVs. Thundersnow potential for sure if anything like this pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Rip city for MKE on the 12z NAM. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Whoa. Wish I shared your optimism. Big bonus if it happens. No big deal if it doesn't as I was prepared for nothing next week anyways. Would kinna suck though though if not much happens like the euro is showing. Probably ends up somewhere in the middle with hopefully a nice strip of advisory snows to the east/se of here. The NAM continues to look great for your area. I'm not sure it ever gets out of the dog house if the Euro wins again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Bow and I are laughing tears at the 12z NAM right now. Good ole NAM. Less than 2% chance it verifies I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Bow and I are laughing tears at the 12z NAM right now. Good ole NAM. Less than 2% chance it verifies I think. I remain bullish on the defo band snows for your area and just west...they will be quick hitting and localized but I think the NAM is on to something. If I was on a QC-RFD-MKE line or just west, I'd be feeling pretty good. Even if it is only 1-3" you don't go from 60s to accumulating snow very often. NAM has 850 wids of 100 kt just SE of detroit and exceptional lift over NW IL into WI with +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 I remain bullish on the defo band snows for your area and just west...they will be quick hitting and localized but I think the NAM is on to something. If I was on a QC-RFD-MKE line or just west, I'd be feeling pretty good. Even if it is only 1-3" you don't go from 60s to accumulating snow very often. I'll take 2" on the backside right now and call it a day; yesterday's 1" was fun to watch since it was ripping for an hour and a half or so. Hopefully it clips Chicago in the process and gives you guys a couple as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Pretty sweet. 1:28 12z NAM 54 hour radar.gif yep, i'm pulling for this big time...legit storm right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Nam coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z NAM would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z NAM would be fun. Positive of this torch it will melt off a lot of Ice from the lakes and keep that LES going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Nam coup? GEM and GFS have been on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 WOW. I will take the NAM a couple hundred miles east please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 GEM and GFS have been on it too. And the UKMET, though further NW like the GFS the last couple runs. Right now the only major model that hasn't really shown a defo zone on the backside is the Euro, and it seems to be making small strides toward it. We have that going for us, but not sure how it will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Nam coup? GEM and GFS have been on it too. I'm bullish on this event for the MKE crew but I'm still waiting for the Euro to come around. WOW. I will take the NAM a couple hundred miles east please! impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 impossible extremely unlikely, but i wouldnt say impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'm bullish on this event for the MKE crew but I'm still waiting for the Euro to come around. Would be helpful, but the Euro got its butt kicked with this current "warm" storm in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Wow! Didnt expect to wake up and see the 12z NAM giving us a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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