cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 6" Anyway, reverse weenie logic, but probably a good thing LOT is bearish on totals for ORD. Not that this is going to be a big deal either way... This could be event that overperforms in some areas due to the banding potential and good DGZ. At least ORD got the 1" out of the way or else the futility mongers would be sweating these late shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z GFS made another push eastward. Looks like the Euro at 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z GFS made another push eastward. Looks like the Euro at 24hr. What did the Euro advertise in the main band? These wundermaps suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 What did the Euro advertise in the main band? These wundermaps suck. 6" from DBQ-MSN-GRB southeast side of the 3" line runs from BRL-cycloneville-DKB-UGN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's the RAP, and it's at the end of it's run, but it does produce a delicious deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Last 4 runs of the GFS snowfall amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z NAM 4km hi-res continues the east trend. nam-hires_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Love that little 0.50-0.75" lolly just northwest of the Metro. Just west of Mt. Saukville probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 A tad early to rely on the RAP. DVN mentioning the colder air is moving in quicker than forecast. Already 41° in Dubuque. 000FXUS63 KDVN 292119AFDDVNAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL319 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013.SYNOPSIS...ANALYSIS AT 2 PM DEPICTS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT BISECTING FORECASTAREA WITH STRONG THERMAL AND MOISTURE GRADIENT. MUCH COLDER AIR ISMOVING IN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. LOTS OR RAIN AND EMBEDDEDTHUNDER IS OCCURRING ALONG FRONT WITH A DEVELOPING WAVE INOKLAHOMA...LOTS OF AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW TOWARD THIS LOW SUPPORTINGDEVELOPMENT OF MORE RAIN AND THUNDER TO FIRE ALONG FRONT THE NEXT6-8 HOURS. UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ANDSUPPORTS LOTS OF FORCING WHEN IT PASSES OVER AREA LATE TONIGHT ANDWEDNESDAY. STRONG 145+ KT JET ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER TROUGH INDICATESVERY COLD CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONTAL SYSTEM NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 serious weenie band on the RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 serious weenie band on the RAP Yep. RAP's always too bullish in the long range it seems, but I couldn't resist posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I know it's IMBY, but does West Michigan look to get in on the fun too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I know it's IMBY, but does West Michigan look to get in on the fun too? I think for you it's going to mainly the LES again. --- Upper 30s in Dubuque, which is about 3 hours ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 The more models I look at, the more I revel in this storm and its shifts. I will still wait for the 0z runs to change my initial call (but I am almost certain it will be changed, question is how much). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Microcast pretty far east with rain/snow line given the hour tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Microcast pretty far east with rain/snow line given the hour tomorrow. he texted me the amounts of it. Said he was going to discount it, did he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 he texted me the amounts of it. Said he was going to discount it, did he? The model had a 3" band going right through the city, and he did discount that. He said the 3" amounts will be for the north and northwest suburbs. It was weird because Mundelien was 1.8", while ORD was over 3"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Last 4 runs of the GFS snowfall amounts.. East trend is clear...also progressively weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 East trend is clear...also progressively weaker. Eh kinda it looks like. 0z run didn't have much in IA but question is does the trend stop or keep going with 0z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 12z GFS was actually pretty wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm going with 4 inches in Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 East trend is clear...also progressively weaker. I would think that is almost inevitable with an east trend. It's a necessary give and take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I think with the winds driving down the lake in several hours, that will help push this convective band off faster. 4km NAM nested run has Milwaukee hitting freezing just after 3am. It's going to fall into the 30s pretty quick later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Gonna go with 1.5 here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 I think with the winds driving down the lake in several hours, that will help push this convective band off faster. 4km NAM nested run has Milwaukee hitting freezing just after 3am. It's going to fall into the 30s pretty quick later this evening. I'm not buying into that, and even though the RAP is amped up, its timing makes more sense. It has us changing over around 7 or 8am. That is more the consensus. Never know though, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 HRRR pretty quick in developing the deformation band later tonight. Also quicker with the changeover. Rain/snow line pretty close to here already at 5am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Skilling's RPM with 1-3" for metro area. 4" for DKB and close to 6" for RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I think with the winds driving down the lake in several hours, that will help push this convective band off faster. 4km NAM nested run has Milwaukee hitting freezing just after 3am. It's going to fall into the 30s pretty quick later this evening. Already down to 38.7 F on top of the met building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Skilling's RPM with 1-3" for metro area. 4" for DKB and close to 6" for RFD. Well now that we are within 24 hours, I would trust local RPMs like Skillings a bit more. Local mets still only going with 1-3" from Milwaukee south and back west to Walworth County, so I would assume similar or slightly greater amounts for Rockford. Perhaps they will end up busting significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Well now that we are within 24 hours, I would trust local RPMs like Skillings a bit more. Local mets still only going with 1-3" from Milwaukee south and back west to Walworth County, so I would assume similar or slightly greater amounts for Rockford. Perhaps they will end up busting significantly. don't be fooled, his RPM busts regardless of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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