January 29-31 Wintry Weather

[BowMeHunter]

  Green Bay AFD

 

SHORT TERM  TNGT AND WED. FROM A TASTE OF SPRING BACK TO REALITY  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY SLIDES THRU THE  REGION. THE MAIN POINT OF EMPHASIS IN THE SHORT-TERM TO BE SNOW  ACCUMULATIONS LATE TNGT THRU MOST OF WED AS AN OPEN GULF SENDS  PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.    THE 20Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRES NOW  OVER S-CNTRL ONTARIO WITH A CDFNT STRETCHED SWWD THRU E-CNTRL WI  INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRES WAS SITUATED OVER  THE SRN PLAINS AND HAS BEGUN MOVING NEWD ALONG THE CDFNT. RADAR  MOSAIC ALREADY PICKING UP ON THE NEXT SLUG OF PCPN PUSHING INTO WI  ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.    THE CDFNT WL COMPLETE ITS PASSAGE THRU ERN WI BY EARLY EVENING  WITH LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREADING THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA.  FARTHER TO THE NORTH...COOLER AIR WL ALLOW FOR THE PCPN TO FALL AS  EITHER A MIX OR LIGHT SNOW. AS THE SECOND SFC LOW LIFTS NEWD TNGT  AND REACHES SRN LK MI BY 12Z WED...LOOK FOR THE PCPN TO GRADUALLY  TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVER ALL OF NE WI WITH ACCUMULATIONS  GENERALLY IN THE ONE-HALF TO TWO INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS  OVER CENTRAL WI. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION SHOULD SEND  MIN TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 20S.    THE STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS LWR  MI INTO SE ONTARIO ON WED. STRONG FORCING (FRONTOGENETICAL AND  Q-G) TO COINCIDE WITH THE PRIMARY DEFORMATION ZONE TO BRING  SIGNIFICANT LIFT TO THE SE HALF OF WI. EXPECT TO SEE A BAND OF  MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FALL GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE  FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO WAUSAUKEE DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE  SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PRES PULLS  AWAY. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR A SWATH OF 5 TO 9 INCHES OF  ACCUMULATION EAST OF THIS LINE...THUS HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM  WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. FARTHER NORTH...LOOK FOR 3 TO 5  INCHES OF SNOW FROM MOSINEE TO FLORENCE WITH A WINTER WEATHER  ADVY. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WL  BRING BLUSTERY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WHICH WL CREATE BLOWING AND  DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW...ESPECIALLY ON EAST-WEST ROADWAYS. AS  CAA CONTS TO OVERSPREAD WI ON WED...LOOK FOR TEMPS TO STEADILY  FALL THRU THE DAY REACHING AROUND 10 ABOVE N-CNTRL TO AROUND 20  DEGS OVER E-CNTRL WI BY EVENING.  

    

[A-L-E-K]

surprisingly robust

[gosaints]

On the positive I will be able to sleep easy tonight..

[Thundersnow12]

followed meaning within 24 hours?

 

didn't say a timeframe after but I'd assume 24-48hrs or so.

 

Last good snow around here I remember after big warmth was 11/30-12/1/2006

[cyclone77]

SREF now gives Cedar Rapids and Dubuque 9".

[Chicago WX]

ARX going with the Euro/GEM/GFS combo for their hood. Punting the NAM apparently.

[A-L-E-K]

Dubuque always finds a way

[gosaints]

ARX going with the Euro/GEM/GFS combo for their hood. Punting the NAM apparently.

They are punting every model trend. RGEM gives them nothing basically now as well. They will be back tracking on this one

[Chicago WX]

They are punting every model trend. RGEM gives them nothing basically now as well. They will be back tracking on this one

 

The area west of LSE under advisories/warnings would be of some concern to me. But they did say they favor the GFS, and it certainly delivers. We'll see.

[Thundersnow12]

18z NAM 4km hi-res continues the east trend.

 

[A-L-E-K]

18z NAM 4km hi-res continues the east trend.

 

nam-hires_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

 

you buying?  calls?

[Brewers]

MKX going with WWA for the SE counties. Calling for 3-6 inches except for Racine,Kenosha and Milwaukee counties where they are going with 2-4

[gosaints]

The area west of LSE under advisories/warnings would be of some concern to me. But they did say they favor the GFS, and it certainly delivers. We'll see.

I agree it's not over for la crosse just thinking they are being overly bullish, but they are the pros.

[Thundersnow12]

Text from Caplan

 

"you can set snow over/under after 0z runs are in"

[A-L-E-K]

Text from Caplan

 

"you can set snow over/under after 0z runs are in"

 

weak move by Caplan waiting until 0z.

[gosaints]

Text from Caplan

"you can set snow over/under after 0z runs are in"

About 8 hours before the event gets going! That's not to gutsy

[Thundersnow12]

you buying?  calls?

 

I'm buying the trend but where does it stop? A little further east and we're looking at 3" or more.

 

If I had to make an IMBY call right now I'd go 2" on the button.

[cyclone77]

18z NAM 4km hi-res continues the east trend.

 

nam-hires_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

Snow totals from that run.  Dark purple is the 6" line.  That's a little over 8" for MSN, about 5" for MKE, and a little over 2" for ORD...

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

5.5 call for MKE looking golden.

[Chicago WX]

I like these.

 

DBQ: 5.9"

LSE: 3.0"

MKE: 3.7"

MLI: 5.0"

MSN: 6.5"

ORD: 1.6"

RFD: 4.0"

LAF: T

 

Will ride these, but am concerned I may bust low in a few places (DBQ, MSN, RFD).

[Chicago Storm]

If I had to make an IMBY call right now I'd go 2" on the button.

Under.

[Chicago WX]

Under.

 

Never change.

[Chicago Storm]

LOT goes with the call of a DAB (<1") around here...

 

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH PRECIP
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AS A SWATH OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 700
MB LOW SURGES NORTH. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT
SLEET ACCUMULATION. EXPECTING AREAS AROUND RFD TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW BEFORE 8AM...CHICAGO AROUND 3PM...AND NW INDIANA 4-6PM.

FOR SNOW TOTALS...EXPECTING THE HIGHEST TOTALS IN FAR NW IL IN
WINNEBAGO AND OGLE COUNTIES. THE NAM IS MUCH MORE EXCITED THAN THE
GFS ABOUT THE SNOW POTENTIAL BUT BOTH MODELS SHOW THE SAME SET UP
THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS. 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES OVER NW IL/E IA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH EPV
VALUES BELOW 0 JUST ABOVE IT...INDICATING LOCALIZED INTENSE FORCING
AND SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY. HOWEVER EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE ABOVE
FREEZING AT THIS POINT. THE FRONTOGENESIS AND INSTABILITY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN AFTER NOON. THE LEFT
JET EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE OVER NORTHERN IL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SO SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN
ISSUE.

WHILE MESOSCALE BANDS OF RAIN OR SNOW ARE VERY LIKELY
TOMORROW...THESE FEATURES ARE HARD TO PINPOINT EVEN THIS FAR OUT.
THEREFORE WENT WITH 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW OVER WINNEBAGO AND OGLE
COUNTIES TOMORROW...BUT THIS NUMBER COULD EASILY BE HIGHER IF A BAND
OF SNOW SETS UP. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE WILL THE BEST FORCING ALIGN
WITH SNOW OR RAIN...HOW LONG WILL THE FORCING LAST...AND WHERE WILL
THE MESOSCALE BAND SET UP.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS AND STABILITY
INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWA. SO INTENSE MESOSCALE BANDS ARE NOT AS LIKELY...BUT FORCING
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE SNOW. AS
SUCH EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS BOONE AND MCHENRY
COUNTIES...AND THEN AN INCH OR LESS EVERYWHERE ELSE. SNOW ENDS FROM
WEST TO EAST...WITH NO SNOW EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY.

[Thundersnow12]

Never change.

 

Nope. We'll see.

[A-L-E-K]

LOT's thoughts synch up nicely with my calls.

[Geos]

That's a sick looking defo band through Milwaukee.

 

[Jonger]

Snow totals from that run.  Dark purple is the 6" line.  That's a little over 8" for MSN, about 5" for MKE, and a little over 2" for ORD...

 

 

Nice, Kalkaska.... 

[cyclone77]

DVN goes with an advisory for the QC and here (2-5"), and upgrades the northwestern 40% to a warning(4-7"). 

[Hoosier]

Pretty soon anything under than 2" will be considered DAB.

[Chicago WX]

Pretty soon anything under than 2" will be considered DAB.

 

6"

 

Anyway, reverse weenie logic, but probably a good thing LOT is bearish on totals for ORD. Not that this is going to be a big deal either way...