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January 29-31 Wintry Weather


wisconsinwx

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Off topic, but are you using storm vista?

 

Si.

 

FWIW riding my 5.5" MKE call

 

Bonus Callz

 

Cyclone-3.1

Cortland, IL-1.9"

Turtletown-6.8"

Central DuPage Co, IL-.6"

ORD-.3"

Mt. Geos!-1"

MBY-.1"

LAF-6 mood flakes

 

Take 'em to the bank folks

 

Meh.

 

I've got 9 mood flakes for LAF.

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I like these.

 

DBQ: 5.9"

LSE: 3.0"

MKE: 3.7"

MLI: 5.0"

MSN: 6.5"

ORD: 1.6"

RFD: 4.0"

LAF: T

 

 

Not bad.

 

I'll go with..

 

Hawkeye/Natester:  4.8"

DLL/Saints:  3.2"

Dubuque:  6.0"

Turtle:  6.6"

Bowme:  5.2"

QC:  4.2"

Here:  4.0"

Chicago Storm:  2.5"

Geos!:  3.2"

Alek:  1.4"

LAF crowd:  0.6"

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FWIW riding my 5.5" MKE call

 

Bonus Callz

 

Cyclone-3.1

Cortland, IL-1.9"

Turtletown-6.8"

Central DuPage Co, IL-.6"

ORD-.3"

Mt. Geos!-1"

MBY-.1"

LAF-6 mood flakes

 

Take 'em to the bank folks

 

 

That's all I get! :P

 

I think the convection placement is important in this situation like you guys are saying.

 

 

Not bad.

 

I'll go with..

 

Hawkeye/Natester:  4.8"

DLL/Saints:  3.2"

Dubuque:  6.0"

Turtle:  6.6"

Bowme:  5.2"

QC:  4.2"

Here:  4.0"

Chicago Storm:  2.5"

Geos!:  3.2"

Alek:  1.4"

LAF crowd:  0.6"

 

 

Thanks! At least Alek and I don't have to worry about the lake messing things up.

 

RPM is further east.

 

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Not bad.

I'll go with..

Hawkeye/Natester: 4.8"

DLL/Saints: 3.2"

Dubuque: 6.0"

Turtle: 6.6"

Bowme: 5.2"

QC: 4.2"

Here: 4.0"

Chicago Storm: 2.5"

Geos!: 3.2"

Alek: 1.4"

LAF crowd: 0.6"

I like something between Tim's and your call for LAF for now...iow, less than a half inch. Wet ground makes the sticking potential uncertain but rapidly falling temps might help.

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That's all I get! :P

 

I think the convection placement is important in this situation like you guys are saying.

 

 

 

 

Thanks! At least Alek and I don't have to worry about the lake messing things up.

 

RPM is further east.

 

attachicon.gifrpm013013.png

 

 

Is this guy seriously predicting 19 inches for Sault Sainte Marie?

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does skilling never get embarrassed by using that RPM?

I do like the totals tho. :P

 

Haha, I just noticed that is through Friday morning, so some of that could be LES.

 

Front is supposed to move through here 6pm per the NAM, so it will be interesting to see if the convection will speed up things or cool if off quicker.

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That is overly bullish I think...

 

Looks like they made no adjustments from last night's thinking, which is ok, this still could trend back NW at the last minute.  We'll see, I definitely think the one day total of 3.1" is still a good o/u for MKE, and 1.1" is good for ORD.  I'm tempted to take the over on both, but I'd like another 6 to 12 hours of model runs and hi-res runs until I feel good.

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Looks like they made no adjustments from last night's thinking, which is ok, this still could trend back NW at the last minute.  We'll see, I definitely think the one day total of 3.1" is still a good o/u for MKE, and 1.1" is good for ORD.  I'm tempted to take the over on both, but I'd like another 6 to 12 hours of model runs and hi-res runs until I feel good.

 

 

same as yesterday, over (mke) under (ord)

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La Crosse goes with warnings even in three MN counties. Very surprising given trends.

 

Interesting.

 

Winona has 3-6" in their forecast. I guess with higher ratios near warning snows could be possible. I think La Crosse might end up being on the back end of the warnings if trends continue.

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Based on current radar trends, I was actually concerned the models would shift back NW.  Much of SC and SW Wisconsin are getting heavy rain, and it looks like it spreading further N and W than the NAM and GFS were depicting.  To me that seemed to signal we might see a N and W adjustment yet.  May not be the case though.

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