SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 12z NMM love for ORD? 1:29 12z NMM 33 hours.gif 1:29 12z NMM 33 hours radar.gif In terms of potential snowfall, what sort of ratios would we be looking at? Heavy, wet 8:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 12z NMM love for ORD? 1:29 12z NMM 33 hours.gif 1:29 12z NMM 33 hours radar.gif Higher-res models continuing to be the most east. The more I think about it the more I favor this scenario. Convection is likely going to have an impact on the baroclinic zone later today, and could very well shove it eastward compared to even what some of the high-res models indicate. Cedar Rapids already down to 39, which is several degrees colder than the 4km NAM advertised off the 12z run. Front does seem to be a little ahead of schedule. 18z and 00z models may make another eastward adjustment, so Chicago really isn't done to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 In terms of potential snowfall, what sort of ratios would we be looking at? Heavy, wet 8:1? Probably will be wet, I'd think. 32 hour maps off the 12z NMM are kinda fun. Weenie band near ORD, torching in LAF, and a mini squall line trying forming to my west. All for tomorrow afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Cyclone if I had to pick a spot for heavy snow it might be yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Higher-res models continuing to be the most east. The more I think about it the more I favor this scenario. Convection is likely going to have an impact on the baroclinic zone later today, and could very well shove it eastward compared to even what some of the high-res models indicate. Cedar Rapids already down to 39, which is several degrees colder than the 4km NAM advertised off the 12z run. Front does seem to be a little ahead of schedule. 18z and 00z models may make another eastward adjustment, so Chicago really isn't done to say the least. I think you're on to something. And yeah, ORD (and MKE) isn't finished at all. Will be fun watching it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Higher-res models continuing to be the most east. The more I think about it the more I favor this scenario. Convection is likely going to have an impact on the baroclinic zone later today, and could very well shove it eastward compared to even what some of the high-res models indicate. Cedar Rapids already down to 39, which is several degrees colder than the 4km NAM advertised off the 12z run. Front does seem to be a little ahead of schedule. 18z and 00z models may make another eastward adjustment, so Chicago really isn't done to say the least. I agree and think it's a legit possibility. Both the 12z ARW and NMM went further east but also took a bit of the punch out of the defo band but not too much. Something to watch as we go into the evening hours with more convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I agree and think it's a legit possibility. Both the 12z ARW and NMM went further east but also took a bit of the punch out of the defo band but not too much. Something to watch as we go into the evening hours with more convection. Yep. The 18z should begin to key in on the further east placement of the frontal boundary late this morning. 00z will probably still be playing catch up and could make a notable difference compared to the 12z and previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I think you're on to something. And yeah, ORD (and MKE) isn't finished at all. Will be fun watching it unfold. I know people near the southern fringe of the snow will feel differently but I kinda hope it stops trending to be honest. A close miss would be worse than a farther one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm micro-analyzing the NMM, but it's a solid 10 hour hit of snow for ORD...verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I know people near the southern fringe of the snow will feel differently but I kinda hope it stops trending to be honest. A close miss would be worse than a farther one. Maybe the NAM from two days ago had the right idea? Eh, I say keep trending. Give the northern/northeastern IL and southeastern WI people some love. Long overdue. Don't care if I see a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 DVN just expanded the winter storm watches eastward into IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yep. The 18z should begin to key in on the further east placement of the frontal boundary late this morning. 00z will probably still be playing catch up and could make a notable difference compared to the 12z and previous runs. It's gotta be the convection/cold air outflow from it that is driving the front eastward quicker or some greater synoptic cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Maybe the NAM from two days ago had the right idea? Eh, I say keep trending. Give the northern/northeastern IL and southeastern WI people some love. Long overdue. Don't care if I see a flake. My thinking as well if nothing of significance is going to happen here. Let's send it south and east to areas that have had a worse winter than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 DVN just expanded the winter storm watches eastward into IL. Excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's gotta be the convection/cold air outflow from it that is driving the front eastward quicker or some greater synoptic cause. Must be. The 18z suite should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Winds have switched to the wnw here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Glad I brought my coat to work today. Temps already down to 39F. PS. I'm posting via my Android. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 NMM way too far east with the dryslot....non-event east of RFD or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 NMM way too far east with the dryslot....non-event east of RFD or so. Well, other models like the UKMET have shifted the storm a bit SE, now bringing the low just south of Gary into EC Lower Michigan (the Thumb region), so it is possible ORD avoids dryslotting. Not sure how massive the dryslot will be, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Well, other models like the UKMET have shifted the storm a bit SE, now bringing the low just south of Gary into EC Lower Michigan (the Thumb region), so it is possible ORD avoids dryslotting. Not sure how massive the dryslot will be, though. Lows near Gary don't deliver for Chicago. We've seen the hi-res models try this before. QC, RFD, MKE all in the game...ORD naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 50% chance ORD sees more than 1.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Lows near Gary don't deliver for Chicago. We've seen the hi-res models try this before. QC, RFD, MKE all in the game...ORD naso much. Another fwiw, but a noticeable tick east with the deformation zone on the GFS Ensembles, and a bit of a slowing trend, likely the result of a slightly more eastward movement of the defo zone than past runs. The UKIE was just one example, I'm sure there are models that bring the low south and east of that, maybe in the LAF, SBN vicinty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 50% chance ORD sees more than 1.1". lol...decent probs. I mean i guess an inch is on the table but nothing about this says to me, snow storm for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 50% chance ORD sees more than 1.1". 1% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 One negative I will mention is the fact that the cold sector precip will be essentially cutoff from deep gulf moisture. Luckily dynamics will be very strong, but the lack of a deep moisture source will probably keep amounts down somewhat. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/338/wrfia.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 lol...decent probs. I mean i guess an inch is on the table but nothing about this says to me, snow storm for Chicago Yeah, I mean ORD isn't ground zero for this thing...but I don't think getting an inch or slightly more is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 By the way, all of you looking at convection/etc for the reason the models changed need to compared 0/12z runs at 500mb for the real answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 By the way, all of you looking at convection/etc for the reason the models changed need to compared 0/12z runs at 500mb for the real answer. So you're saying we were putting the cart before the horse? Or the convection before the mid-levels? Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro is juicier for E IA, NW/NC IL, S WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 By the way, all of you looking at convection/etc for the reason the models changed need to compared 0/12z runs at 500mb for the real answer. Weaker H5 wave like what I mentioned about the 6z NAM? Euro makes a jump east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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