Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 MKE does well on the 12z RGEM. Even consolation flakes for LAF. Woo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 RGEM spreads the wealth a little more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 general broadbrush calls are lame, go big or go home. Final MKE call, 5.5" (higher just west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 general broadbrush calls are lame, go big or go home. Final MKE call, 5.5" (higher just west) I may up my call, but your 5.5" is the upper limit, but I see you understand that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 12z RGEM: 6am Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 MKE does well on the 12z RGEM. Even consolation flakes for LAF. Woo! I'll have to see how it looks for West Michigan. That 12Z NAM map kills me. JUST to the northwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not bad Alek. I think I agree with that call for MKE right now, though maybe a bit bullish. I'd range it to 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 12z RGEM: 6am Wednesday Pretty impressive. Would be rip city for much of Iowa. Kind of reminds me a bit of 12/20 for the QC, but with much less wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Got to think the GFS is gonna take a little ride east with the rest of guidance this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Got to think the GFS is gonna take a little ride east with the rest of guidance this morning. maybe a small step but i don't expect a big jump EDIT: looks more or less identical to 6z except a good deal wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 maybe a small step but i don't expect a big jump EDIT: looks more or less identical to 6z except a good deal wetter Man thats a lot of moisture for January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Rockford would do real well if the NAM verified. 5" according to Bufkit for RFD. 2.1" for ORD, 2.4" for DPA and 1.1" for MDW. Should be wary of it because it showed something very similar for the 12/20 storm 1 day out and we all know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Iowa gets pounded... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Snow side looks beefier on the 12z GFS, through 24 hours...comparing it to the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 the curveballs keep coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Snow side looks beefier on the 12z GFS, through 24 hours...comparing it to the 0z run. Looks alot like the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Iowa, well done on the 12z GFS. GRB/MSN going to do very well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Looks alot like the RGEM Yeah sure does. Love the wider band of snows it advertises as well, much like the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Rockford would do real well if the NAM verified. 5" according to Bufkit for RFD. 2.1" for ORD, 2.4" for DPA and 1.1" for MDW. Should be wary of it because it showed something very similar for the 12/20 storm 1 day out and we all know how that turned out. Thats why I am basically ignoring the models and waiting for nowcast time. I may end up with nothing, I may get six inches. ( ). The models have been simply awful, especially with a rain to snow transition. 12/20 was quite bad, with my 6-9" Blizzard warning ending up as .6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 You gotta wonder if today's convection will have any impact on accelerating the front further to the east than modeled. If that happens it could result in a further east placement on the snow band. The high-res models may have a better handle on something like that, if it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The nowcast should be fun with this thing. Cant believe I am sitting here analyzing the the RAP at hour 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 You gotta wonder if today's convection will have any impact on accelerating the front further to the east than modeled. If that happens it could result in a further east placement on the snow band. The high-res models may have a better handle on something like that, if it occurs. I was thinking that too, but don't really know if that's "realistic". Though, seems the models are kinda doing that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Thats why I am basically ignoring the models and waiting for nowcast time. I may end up with nothing, I may get six inches. ( ). The models have been simply awful, especially with a rain to snow transition. 12/20 was quite bad, with my 6-9" Blizzard warning ending up as .6". Although it could change obviously the NAM actually looks favorable for a period of heavy snow for your area from 15z-18z tomorrow. Good large scale ascent, frontogenesis, and lift and saturation through the snow growth zone. Also even some instability possible. GFS doesn't look quite as good, but one positive aspect to this vs.12/20 is the cold air looks to arrive quicker so you might not need really heavy snowfall rates to get a decent accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I see La Crosse has this out... probably a good call... Hope we can pull in 3 to 5 here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I see La Crosse has this out... probably a good call... Hope we can pull in 3 to 5 here... Pretty much all models have heaviest south and east of us now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Don't think we can still pick up 3":??? What does the 12z GFS say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Gfs still says 3 to 5 possible as does RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Are we using this a general non-severe storm thread or should heavy rain / general storm talk go in the monthly? Here's a thread for the heavy rain/flooding aspect http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39082-january-29-heavy-rainflooding/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 12z NMM love for ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 This storm looks like it could potentially set several daily records at Madison. The max daily precip record for 1/29 has already been broken as of 10:00am: 1.20", old record 0.98" set in 1869. Quite a few others could be within reach: 1/29 record high: 53 set in 1914 1/29 record high min: 33 set in 2006 and 1931 1/30 record precip: 0.52" set in 1947 1/30 record snowfall: 4.2" set in 1947 Max calendar day rainfall for month of January: 1.80" on 1/1/1892. (found on MKX climate page - not sure what max 24-hr rainfall is for Jan). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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