Stebo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Doubt we see 2"+ of rain....Chicago maybe, but not here. But regardless it is messy. Snowmelt has nowhere to go because the grounds frozen, so rain will only sloppify things further. I think we very well could get 2" of a rain, the amount of moisture being pumped up into the region is about at the 99th percentile for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm seeing that the GFS is now showing some snow in SE MN.....good job by that FIM model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 0z GGEM looks good for central/eastern IA and then up through most of WI. Nothing heavy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 the amount of moisture being pumped up into the region is about at the 99th percentile for this time of year. Higher... 5.5 Sigma on the pwat forecast map I posted earlier, which would be the 99. 99999 percentile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Higher... 5.5 Sigma on the pwat forecast map I posted earlier, which would be the 99. 99999 percentile Yeah, I'd say the prospects of heavy rain are pretty close to a slam dunk as you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 WRF-NMM shifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Ice Jams definitely possible, that recent cold snap we had completely froze everything solid. I dropped a large rock from about 20 feet onto the Portage River in Woodville and it didn't break through so it was pretty iced over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 ....and just for laughs the 0Z CRAS bombs out a 960 low over Chicago at 48 hrs wrapping heavy snows back into central IL. Then at 54 hrs it's 952 over MKE. Nice...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 ....and just for laughs the 0Z CRAS bombs out a 960 low over Chicago at 48 hrs wrapping heavy snows back into central IL. Then at 54 hrs it's 952 over MKE. Nice...... The CRAS could make a legitimate case for being the worst model ever. Good thing it's not operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The CRAS could make a legitimate case for being the worst model ever. Good thing it's not operational. CRAS is full on looney toons, its as if you took the most weenie solution ever for every day and then have a model pump it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 CRAS is full on looney toons, its as if you took the most weenie solution ever for every day and then have a model pump it out. That would an epic solution! EURO looks like the GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 CRAS is full on looney toons, its as if you took the most weenie solution ever for every day and then have a model pump it out. I'd like to see how it would handle something like the blizzard of 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 That would an epic solution! EURO looks like the GFS tonight. It's one thing when a model overamps a system by a bit, but when it is off by 12 hours on an event that is nearly within 36 hours, you can confidently toss it out. This is a Wednesday night event according to the CRAS, to that I say no way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Wow...so many dynamics at play! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The CRAS could make a legitimate case for being the worst model ever. Good thing it's not operational. never even heard of it till now I don't think. Link just so I can see that? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's one thing when a model overamps a system by a bit, but when it is off by 12 hours on an event that is nearly within 36 hours, you can confidently toss it out. This is a Wednesday night event according to the CRAS, to that I say no way! nice thunder the last 20 mins by you also? yard ponding up nice with this round.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 nice thunder the last 20 mins by you also? yard ponding up nice with this round.. Yep, but that's for the January or severe thread. Would be a nice time to have a rain guage. We're probably going to have several times the amount of rain in December and January combined than we had in much of May and June here (when you would expect heavy rain). What an unexpected situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 never even heard of it till now I don't think. Link just so I can see that? lol http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/p03_m.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yep, but that's for the January or severe thread. Would be a nice time to have a rain guage. We're probably going to have several times the amount of rain in December and January combined than we had in much of May and June here (when you would expect heavy rain). What an unexpected situation. yeah just noticed your post about thunder in the jan thread.. Winter is now the rainy season here.. Mountain move out west or to Mt Geos might be needed soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'd like to see how it would handle something like the blizzard of 78. Probably show a low of 900mb or something dumb like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 never even heard of it till now I don't think. Link just so I can see that? lol http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/model_l.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 thanks guy. Good lord that's a solution for the ages on that CRAS lol for anyone who wants to see it... amazing trof, pure porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 thanks guy. Good lord that's a solution for the ages on that CRAS lol for anyone who wants to see it... amazing trof, pure porn. Odds of it verifying, 10 Billion to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Odds of it verifying, 10 Billion to 1 You're being optimistic. The thing is, it has a reasonable solution through about 24 hours, and then it goes insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's not much but it's pretty easy to tell when comparing the 6z and 0z NAM at 18z Weds looking at H5 vort. The wave is a bit weaker over IL/WI which allows the snow band to come a bit further southeast and gives RFD/MKE more snow this run. Also looked more oriented WSW/ENE where 0z was more NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Are we using this a general non-severe storm thread or should heavy rain / general storm talk go in the monthly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 WSW in Madison for 3-6 inches of snow. Kind of weird to get that in the middle of rain and fog, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Still some pretty good model spread out there for this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 That strip of QPF is all snow.... Madison again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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