Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The thing of it is, the NAM almost always puts too much moisture on the backsides of systems. They are also likely to be just a bit too amped up as well. I remember the last runs of the NAM before the solstice storm, and it was a bit generous for that secondary deformation band. Eh I don't remember them being too generous unless they were showing 2ft of snow. Were several 16-20" reports in WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 New RGEM significant jump northwest compared to previous runs. Runs a 984mb low right over my head early Wed. Would be some sloppy seconds for northern IL during the day Wed. Still a bit early for an amount call, but at this point I think a dusting to an inch of wet leftovers looks good for the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 it's nice to see a discussion based what the models show instead of some peeps using any thread other the complaint thread to bi*** about their back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 New RGEM significant jump northwest compared to previous runs. Runs a 984mb low right over my head early Wed. Would be some sloppy seconds for northern IL during the day Wed. Still a bit early for an amount call, but at this point I think a dusting to an inch of wet leftovers looks good for the QC. can't wait to see it....one of the Fim models off the 12z runs showed back side snow as far NW as Rochester MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Since 2007-08 can Madison do any wrong? Models go out of their way to bury that town. I just moved here so I'm sure we can change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Cyclone.......does it look something like this???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Eh I don't remember them being too generous unless they were showing 2ft of snow. Were several 16-20" reports in WI. I'm talking about that last minute defo band that showed up in NE IL the day before the storm hit. A large part of that area got dry slotted during the time the NAM showed the most precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 New RGEM significant jump northwest compared to previous runs. Runs a 984mb low right over my head early Wed. Would be some sloppy seconds for northern IL during the day Wed. Still a bit early for an amount call, but at this point I think a dusting to an inch of wet leftovers looks good for the QC. Going off the p-types map, its got all kinds of surface lows. Kind of ragged looking snows at times...but just east of DSM, then up to around LSE and then NE cash decently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Cyclone.......does it look something like this???? Pretty close. The key is it took a big step NW compared to it's 12z/18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 GFS is drier on the backside this run for sure. That RGEM run looks odd. There wasn't 2 lows on the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 GFS is drier on the backside this run for sure. That RGEM run looks odd. There wasn't 2 lows on the last run. GFS is drier on the backside this run for sure. That RGEM run looks odd. There wasn't 2 lows on the last run. Still showing low end warning criteria snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 yes it looks like snow now in far se MN, I love those 15km Fim models at this latitude, this year....they have been doing fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I better start building an ark. If there is water standing on the sidewalks now after the snow melting, 2+ inches of rain from this is going to get messy. Doubt we see 2"+ of rain....Chicago maybe, but not here. But regardless it is messy. Snowmelt has nowhere to go because the grounds frozen, so rain will only sloppify things further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 what struck me as strange (although I didn't express it) is how far east the second low was proged to be vs the 1st one. Normally when you have one low, followed close behind by the 2nd, the second one is closer to the track of the 1st one than the models have been depicting, I think the model suite consensus will be a slight move to the NW with the 29/0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Still showing low end warning criteria snows It's in a more concentrated area. I find it odd that the defo band shifts or actually it jumps over to the western shore of L MI north of Milwaukee after it visits your area. --- Lol, the RPM jumped about 200 miles to the east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I better start building an ark. If there is water standing on the sidewalks now after the snow melting, 2+ inches of rain from this is going to get messy. Doubt we see 2"+ of rain....Chicago maybe, but not here. But regardless it is messy. Snowmelt has nowhere to go because the grounds frozen, so rain will only sloppify things further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Fum times by all as we watch this system mature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 21z SREF snow probabilities had pretty much >50% chance of 1"+ for ORD. That's a big event this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Thoughts on flood threat? Seems like MI and IL are in for some serious rain, with MI having the greater meltable snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 21z SREF snow probabilities had pretty much >50% chance of 1"+ for ORD. That's a big event this winter. 1:28 21z SREF 54 hours.gif I believe the next SREF run will be 03Z??? will be interesting to see that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I believe the next SREF run will be 03Z??? will be interesting to see that one. Correct. Should get better as we get closer to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 SREF shifted east for sure. Too bad that moisture isn't going to infiltrate into the ground water table. Rivers and streams will respond though, maybe even level off Lake Michigan-Huron's water level drop. The rivers, especially in MI are going to act flashy. Meaning flash flood like, similar to how the streams in hilly/mountainous areas act. Frozen ground, with snow melt and heavy rain will no doubt cause some problems. Plus ice jams could be an issue also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Thoughts on flood threat? Seems like MI and IL are in for some serious rain, with MI having the greater meltable snowpack. yes flooding is possible, but I don't know what the ground temps are in that area, my first thought is that the frost line may be somewhat shallow, but most of the surface rain should move into the rivers and streams...are they frozen? if not this could actually (at the expense of local land owners) be a good thing as the hydrological drought further south at the confluence of the Ohio River and Mississippi could help with the river flows downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 WOW....so many impacts in such a short time, especially for Jan. Blizzard possible in WI, T-Storms near Chicago, flooding rains, and a severe regional outbreak down south...What month is this???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 WOW....so many impacts in such a short time, especially for Jan. Blizzard possible in WI, T-Storms near Chicago, flooding rains, and a severe regional outbreak down south...What month is this???? January 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 WOW....so many impacts in such a short time, especially for Jan. Blizzard possible in WI, T-Storms near Chicago, flooding rains, and a severe regional outbreak down south...What month is this???? Yeah, regardless of precip types and amounts, the 50 degree high difference potential in two days is exceedingly rare, even for Milwaukee. Looks like a chance to hit 60 tomorrow, and then into the low teens on Thursday. Will talk more about this in the January thread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 January 2008. A bit off topic but next Tuesday will be the 5 year anniversary of the February 5, 2008 tornado outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Chicago WX: One thing that you will never see from me, unless it's now (lol). I never complain about weather in my back yard, it is what it is, the biggest challenge is forecasting it, if I don't like it, so be it, I will hardly complain about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Chicago WX: One thing that you will never see from me, unless it's now (lol). I never complain about weather in my back yard, it is what it is, the biggest challenge is forecasting it, if I don't like it, so be it, I will hardly complain about it. Not sure why you're explaining yourself. You're good. But hey, sometimes people need to vent their frustrations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not sure why you're explaining yourself. You're good. But hey, sometimes people need to vent their frustrations. All I'm saying is that if I want to complain I will take it to the complaint thread, and not editorialize about MBY in a thread that is not meant for it, quite frankly, I have no use for those post's that put up by others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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