Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 For the most, pretty good agreement amongst the 18z GEFS and op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 The SREF is fickle. Should have seen the RPM, it was congrats for Des Moines to about Ashland, WI! When any model is that far NW with less than 48 hours to go, and you are located in the exact opposite portion of the state, you know your chances are on life support. Final call: a few thunderstorms, just miss the heavier rain/t'storms, dryslot, T-1" of snow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Looks like NAM might blip back to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Low is more towards STL at 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I better start building an ark. If there is water standing on the sidewalks now after the snow melting, 2+ inches of rain from this is going to get messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Heck of a rain storm I will give it that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Looks like NAM might blip back to the east East as in west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 NAM is not as organized and a bit faster this run. GRR vs. Saginaw now at 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z Gem Reg looks interesting for Chicago IMO, and possible Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 0z NAM looks wonky. But the snow band takes another move northwest on it, versus prior runs. Regardless, it snuggles closer to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 What a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 its not even laughable no more. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 What a joke. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 NAM pummels Madison, what's interesting about a lot of these solutions is how far back behind the system the deformation zone is. The positive is that almost everyone within the defo zone would be snow, but it makes me wonder if it's realistic to expect that much moisture in such a displaced defo zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 0z NAM looks wonky. But the snow band takes another move northwest on it, versus prior runs. Regardless, it snuggles closer to the GFS. Was looking on NCEP on my phone and once I saw snow aiming at Omaha I stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 NAM pummels Madison, what's interesting about a lot of these solutions is how far back behind the system the deformation zone is. The positive is that almost everyone within the defo zone would be snow, but it makes me wonder if it's realistic to expect that much moisture in such a displaced defo zone. Doesn't even look realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 0z NAM looks wonky. But the snow band takes another move northwest on it, versus prior runs. Regardless, it snuggles closer to the GFS. It doesn't look any different than 18z really in terms of low placement and snow band. Obviously about 60-90 miles west/northwest of 12z, but not surprising since it was the farthest east of the 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Was looking on NCEP on my phone and once I saw snow aiming at Omaha I stopped. It doesn't look any different than 18z really in terms of low placement and snow band. Obviously about 60-90 miles west/northwest of 12z, but not surprising since it was the farthest east of the 12z guidance. Eh, it has a weird low(s) positioning. Doesn't matter, it's the NAM. But in the end, it made a move to the GFS. White flag time for MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 NAM looks the same as far as the defo band is concerned to me. Throws Chicago a little snow at 42 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 NAM gives Dubuque about 8", Cedar Rapids a good 6". A foot just west of Madison. 1" for the QC lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Eh, it has a weird low(s) positioning. Doesn't matter, it's the NAM. But in the end, it made a move to the GFS. White flag time for MKE. It was white flag time this morning. I already made my T-1" call, and MKX is only expecting 1-2" in the metro, so the overreaction is what I don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 NAM looks the same as far as the defo band is concerned to me. Throws Chicago a little snow at 42 hrs. That's rain at 42 hours. But some consolation flakes thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It was white flag time this morning. I already made my T-1" call, and MKX is only expecting 1-2" in the metro, so the overreaction is what I don't understand. Overreaction? Please, do tell. But yes I know, you made your call. Looks solid to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 NAM pummels Madison, what's interesting about a lot of these solutions is how far back behind the system the deformation zone is. The positive is that almost everyone within the defo zone would be snow, but it makes me wonder if it's realistic to expect that much moisture in such a displaced defo zone. 0Z NAM is showing a pretty narrow heavy snow band. Looks to be from around Dubuque to Wisconsin Dells to just west of Green Bay. If it verified Madison would get less than DLL. I'm fully expecting the models to keep moving around though. Seems like model performance has been even worse than normal this winter. NAM has done well with the systems getting beaten back by dry air lately, but this is a different beast so not sure which model to trust more (or less)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Overreaction? Please, do tell. But yes I know, you made your call. Looks solid to me. I'm sorry, wasn't referring to you specifically, there were the same groans and uhhs by some who I thought had waved the towel already. Perhaps they were hanging onto hope, the low itself actually looked like it stayed in place, but it may just be a function of the funky NAM, and probably is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Looks like 6" or so for MSN, verbatim off the 0z NAM soundings. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 NAM pummels Madison, what's interesting about a lot of these solutions is how far back behind the system the deformation zone is. The positive is that almost everyone within the defo zone would be snow, but it makes me wonder if it's realistic to expect that much moisture in such a displaced defo zone. With the high dews in the warm sector I believe the deformation zone could be placed as the models depict. Wrap around moisture could definitely be a problem, let alone how much moisture could this system pick up from the open waters of the great lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 With the high dews in the warm sector I believe the deformation zone could be placed as the models depict. Wrap around moisture could definitely be a problem, let alone how much moisture could this system pick up from the open waters of the great lakes. The thing of it is, the NAM almost always puts too much moisture on the backsides of systems. They are also likely to be just a bit too amped up as well. I remember the last runs of the NAM before the solstice storm, and it was a bit generous for that secondary deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I think the hardest forecast may be for EAU, I would set the mean forecast at 2". So over or under? I'll take the first guess......over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The thing of it is, the NAM almost always puts too much moisture on the backsides of systems. They are also likely to be just a bit too amped up as well. I remember the last runs of the NAM before the solstice storm, and it was a bit generous for that secondary deformation band. Generally speaking I hate the NAM for winter forecast, but I believe it has a good deal of support at least in the general idea, as all models now have a deformation zone, if I remember right the Nam and the Euro were the last to show the deformation band, so actually the idea of the Nam would support the GFS as it showed the deform area before the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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