Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 So yeah, probably time to punt this one for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 4:38 PM, Hoosier said: So yeah, probably time to punt this one for LAF. It's ovah. Lowered my expectations to possibly seeing a few flakes, but I have serious doubts about that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 4:40 PM, Chicago WX said: It's ovah. Lowered my expectations to possibly seeing a few flakes, but I have serious doubts about that happening. My post yesterday when the NAM looked good On 1/27/2013 at 10:33 PM, Hoosier said: It will fail when we need it the most. Oh well, I'll take the complaining elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 3:56 PM, Thundersnow12 said: I'll take my 5" and run. Nice LOT CWA gradient. 12.png Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'll take anything at this point. The last 1" of snow or more fell Dec 20th. Last 5"+ snow fell on the GHD storm 2 years ago. Largest snowfall last season was a little over 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 GEM continues to look good for SE WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 4:45 PM, Hoosier said: My post yesterday when the NAM looked good Oh well, I'll take the complaining elsewhere. POS model. I've already dipped my toes in that thread. More to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 4:50 PM, Brewers said: GEM continues to look good for SE WI. I think I'll go with a compromise of the GFS on one end and the NAM/GEM/RGEM on the other and go with another Madison to Sheboygan hit. Worked out last time I called for it wiith the solstice storm, not that I necessarily want that likely snow gradient outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 12z UnKle likes central/eastern IA and then up towards GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Have to think the UKIE is as far west as this thing can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 4:55 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z UnKle likes central/eastern IA and then up towards GRB. 1:28 12z UK 48 hours.gif 1:28 12z UK 60 hours.gif Poor man's solstice storm repeat with another storm cutting through Chicago, this time though it continues tracking NE instead of making a funky easterly turn over Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 How about another over/under- over/under 3" at ORD with this potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 4:59 PM, gosaints said: Have to think the UKIE is as far west as this thing can go. Except the GFS is further west. I think the GFS is likely as far west as it can go, considering the weaker low passing through the Upper Mississippi Valley tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 4:59 PM, RCNYILWX said: How about another over/under- over/under 3" at ORD with this potential event. Easy under. West is best, or trending that way. Thinking 1" may be a good starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 5:06 PM, Chicago WX said: Easy under. West is best, or trending that way. Thinking 1" may be a good starting point. Things will have really turned if ORD can pull off another 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 4:59 PM, RCNYILWX said: How about another over/under- over/under 3" at ORD with this potential event. under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 4:53 PM, wisconsinwx said: I think I'll go with a compromise of the GFS on one end and the NAM/GEM/RGEM on the other and go with another Madison to Sheboygan hit. Worked out last time I called for it wiith the solstice storm, not that I necessarily want that likely snow gradient outcome. That sounds about right but I am still optimistic that MKE will get some decent snow. I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS shifts back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 5:15 PM, Brewers said: That sounds about right but I am still optimistic that MKE will get some decent snow. I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS shifts back SE. At least we don't have to worry about the lake, unless one day in the upper 50s torches it (thankfully it shouldn't). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 NAM vs. GFS NAM http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/831/namuw.jpg/'> GFS http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/96/gfss.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 5:24 PM, cyclone77 said: NAM vs. GFS NAM GFS And in your avatar you're George getting talked up by the NAM to expect your 6" of snow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 5:25 PM, wisconsinwx said: And in your avatar you're George getting talked up by the NAM to expect your 6" of snow, right? Haha yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 The vast majority of the GFS Ensembles back up the NW solution of the OP GFS. This may be all she wrote for Chitown and even Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Fairly good agreement amongst the 12z op GFS and its ensembles. NAM is whack...west is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 yep, surprisingly good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 5:33 PM, Chicago WX said: Fairly good agreement amongst the 12z op GFS and its ensembles. NAM is whack...west is best. 1:28 12z GEFS 48 hours.gif 1:28 12z GEFS 54 hours.gif GFS op and ensembles would spell out a Hawkeye/DLL special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 I guess it's already time for the reappearance of the DAB+ call. I'll wait a bit to make that call for Milwaukee, but I'm sure some Chicago posters here are locked and loaded for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 3:58 PM, Chicago WX said: At this point, I think I'd frame my best zones for highest accumulating snows with these imaginary lines... Southeastern edge: QC to MKE to TVC Northwestern edge: DSM to LSE to GRB Post 12z models, really like the northwestern edge. 80/20 if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Hard to believe the Euro won't make a northwest move. There would be some chaos if not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 On 1/28/2013 at 5:32 PM, wisconsinwx said: The vast majority of the GFS Ensembles back up the NW solution of the OP GFS. This may be all she wrote for Chitown and even Milwaukee. Will wait a bit before I stick a fork in it, but this is approaching being fully cooked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 U of IL WRF ensembles very amped with this thing, much like the NAM. Drops the surface low down below 980mb by the time it reaches northern-lower MI. Looks like some decent thundersnow potential over northern IL if this pans out... http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/541/41914977.jpg/'> http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/547/59659296.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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