wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Ok, I think it's time as all models except the almightly Euro are showing some backside snow in the region with the trough moving in midweek. I'm taking a chance starting another thread, but most weren't expecting much with this until recently, so nothing to lose I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 18z GFS looks good for E IA, N IL and WI A solid 6+ inches from E IA through much of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 GFS looking interesting for the western part of the subforum past 69 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Go NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I'm a bit optimistic about this one with models trying to converge on a swath of good snow and because we've seen many good snow events after near/record warmth. Think this setup is conducive for some snow as the wave developes along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Definitely has my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Go NAM. A great position to be in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 A great position to be in! It's playing with a hot hand right now. Well, it's been dynamite with the dry air issues anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 It's playing with a hot hand right now. Well, it's been dynamite with the dry air issues anyway. It will fail when we need it the most. At least there is a little GGEM support. Really too early to commit to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 18z GFS continues the trend of a stronger southern wave moving into the plains causing pressures to fall and now getting a 999mb low coming out of northern OK opposed to an elongated 1004mb low on the 12z run. Also a bit more ridging out east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 It will fail when we need it the most. At least there is a little GGEM support. Really too early to commit to anything. I know. Hopefully we see some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 18z GFS continues the trend of a stronger southern wave moving into the plains causing pressures to fall and now getting a 999mb low coming out of northern OK opposed to an elongated 1004mb low on the 12z run. Also a bit more ridging out east as well. The ensembles will be a big sign. Even the 12z ensembles were mostly weaker and less interesting from a wintry standpoint than the OP, so for the OP 18z GFS to come in even stronger was a bit of a surprise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Seems like most of the 18z GFS ensembles are farther south with the snow than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 That's right Hoosier but more of them jumped on board with an amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Seems like most of the 18z GFS ensembles are farther south with the snow than the op run. 18z continuing the jump north that 12z started is the key for me...will be surprised if 0z doesn't hold or go further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I would be satisfied if this actually happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I would be satisfied if this actually happened. 970mb over Huron with a near 1040mb high heading towards Montana. Yeah that would be pretty interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 I would be satisfied if this actually happened. If something like that would happen, would probably be the most exciting weather we have had since Groundhog Day almost 2 years to that date, I'm not going to lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 At this point I'd be happy with any snow I can get but the potential is definitely there for a snowstorm somewhere in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 18z continuing the jump north that 12z started is the key for me...will be surprised if 0z doesn't hold or go further north Whoa. Wish I shared your optimism. Big bonus if it happens. No big deal if it doesn't as I was prepared for nothing next week anyways. Would kinna suck though though if not much happens like the euro is showing. Probably ends up somewhere in the middle with hopefully a nice strip of advisory snows to the east/se of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 21z SREF precip types at 21z Wed: Looks like at least 9/20 give a stripe of snow to Chicago. Let's see what the NAM spits out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 It seems the NAM is making slow strides toward a GFS like solution. It definitely slowed down a bit from 12z, hanging the precipitation in Chicago and Milwaukee through about 12z Wednesday,and the low looks a bit west compared to 12z. It's not quite in its good range anyway, so take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Go NAM. X2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 12 out of those actually looked good for Southern Michigan, too. Curious to see what the 0z models bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 NAM would be pretty painful for eastern Iowa and western IL. Still some model spread so none of us out west here should be too worried at this point. At least the NAM solution delivers for Chicago, which would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It seems the NAM is making slow strides toward a GFS like solution. It definitely slowed down a bit from 12z, hanging the precipitation in Chicago and Milwaukee through about 12z Wednesday,and the low looks a bit west compared to 12z. It's not quite in its good range anyway, so take it with a grain of salt. Yeah each of the past 4 runs of the NAM have had a further NW and slower trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 NAM BUFKIT spits out as snow GYY: 0.25 ORD: 0.22 MDW: 0.22 LAF: 0.22 not too much variation by region there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 NAM would be pretty painful for eastern Iowa and western IL. Still some model spread so none of us out west here should be too worried at this point. At least the NAM solution delivers for Chicago, which would be nice. We'll be happy with our dusting here cyclone. In all honesty this system should be quite a potent dynamic little system to watch. I think we'll be in good position when its all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 We'll be happy with our dusting here cyclone. In all honesty this system should be quite a potent dynamic little system to watch. I think we'll be in good position when its all said and done. Do you think the non-Euro models are on the right track with a decent deformation zone on the back side of the low? It seems a potent low like this should produce backside snow for someone, but the Euro seems steadfast in giving no snow to anyone in the region besides light snow to the Upper Midwest with the first weaker system tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 We'll be happy with our dusting here cyclone. In all honesty this system should be quite a potent dynamic little system to watch. I think we'll be in good position when its all said and done. Yeah it's gonna be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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