Weathergun Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 ...A POWERFUL COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA... NJZ013-014-020-022>027-301100- /O.NEW.KPHI.HW.A.0001.130130T2100Z-130131T0800Z/ WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...JACKSON... HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY... LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST 254 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...SOME TREES AND POWER LINES WOULD COME DOWN. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES. SOME DAMAGE TO SMALL OR COMPROMISED STRUCTURES WOULD OCCUR. MODERATE BEACH EROSION WOULD OCCUR. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ MPD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Per gfs and nam it should be after 7pm Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Glad to see a lot of posters are waking up and realizing that cold doesn't gurantee snow. The earlier theory that bringing in the cold would eventually deliver the goods has been proven wrong. It couldn't have been much colder for as long of a stretch as it had been this past week or so and yet there have been BL issues with every threat and this couple of days in the 50s and 60s will thaw out much of the area. The sun feels warm and is a nice reminder that Spring is just around the corner. Mets and posters here have been saying for weeks that the regime right now is too progressive for a major event and we're essentially stuck in a Nina pattern. Minor events are still possible like what we had last week, but I'm not even slightly excited for a more major event until we develop more blocking to our north and the flow can slow down and allow storms to amplify. Until then, I fear the best we can do is lucking out with initial snow from a cutter/inland runner or getting some brief enhancement from an exiting clipper. This isn't a favorable pattern for us in terms of snow threats greater than 4", at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 ...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT... CTZ005>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-301000- /O.NEW.KOKX.HW.A.0001.130130T2300Z-130131T1100Z/ NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN- EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 343 PM EST TUE JAN 29 2013 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF WESTCHESTER COUNTY AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARDS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. * WINDS...SOUTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. * IMPACTS...THESE STRONG WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH HEAVY RAIN...COULD BRING DOWN WHOLE TREES...LARGE TREE LIMBS...POWER LINES AND UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS. THIS COULD POSE A HAZARD TO ANYONE OUT DRIVING OR WALKING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND TO HOUSES AND OTHER STRUCTURES NEAR LARGER TREES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ GOODMAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Who says it didn't deliver the goods. I for one received 3.8" snow during that week. It was the second best winter weather week since 2011 IMBY. thats sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 thats sad In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Who says it didn't deliver the goods. I for one received 3.8" snow during that week. It was the second best winter weather week since 2011 IMBY. Who says it didn't deliver the goods. I for one received 3.8" snow during that week. It was the second best winter weather week since 2011 IMBY. If a few inches of slop gets your jollies off then more power to you. People clearly want a KU and won't be satisfied until they get it. My message to them is "Don't hold your breath waiting for it". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 If a few inches of slop gets your jollies off then more power to you. People clearly want a KU and won't be satisfied until they get it. My message to them is "Don't hold your breath waiting for it". I'd be fine with a 5 to 8" storm, don't need a KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Upton: SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WED INTO WED EVENING... THEN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EVOLVE MAINLY LATE WED NIGHT AS A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF /90-100 KT AT 900 MB/ DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN AND NEARBY WATERS AND SWINGS NE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NYC METRO ON EAST. WHILE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP SFC-BASED INVERSION WHICH WOULD NORMALLY INHIBIT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER...MODEL DATA STILL SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ON SEVERAL POINTS...INCLUDING A STRONG ENOUGH LLJ PER LOCAL RULE OF THUMB...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER VIA PRECIP DRAG IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AHEAD OF/ALONG THE FRONT...AND POTENTIAL FOR DUCTED GRAVITY WAVE DEVELOPMENT AS A MID LEVEL JET STREAK RIDING UP THE MID ATLC COAST PASSES THE INFLECTION POINT OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH/DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...AND AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STABLE LOW LEVELS TOPPED BY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. NAM DEPICTION OF SFC COLD FRONT SHOWS A VERY SHARP PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET SUGGESTIVE OF A GRAVITY WAVE AS WELL. HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM NYC METRO INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT. WINDS MEETING ADVY CRITERIA QUITE LIKELY FARTHER NORTH/WEST INTO INTERIOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL. SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE VIA COMBO OF MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FORCED ASCENT. VERY HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING COLD FROPA COULD COME IN TWO BANDS AS ENHANCED LIFT VIA MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAKS AND FRONTAL/GRAVITY WAVE FORCING ACTS ON HIGHLY ANOMALOUS PW CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS AND CORRESPONDING RAINFALL RATES CLOSE TO 1 INCH PER HOUR...COULD CAUSE FLASHY URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN SOME AREAS FROM NYC NORTH/WEST...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Beautiful out! So glad winter is over. Not that it ever began. Time for spring (and the 00z EURO corroborates going into the LR... awful awful pattern). 0z Euro actually had several snow threats and -16C 850s at Day 9. You probably didn't bother to look at actual modeling but just threw that in. I've had almost 20" of snow this year and had three nights in the single digits in the last week. Winter definitely started and will be back. Thanks for trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 0z Euro actually had several snow threats and -16C 850s at Day 9. You probably didn't bother to look at actual modeling but just threw that in. I've had almost 20" of snow this year and had three nights in the single digits in the last week. Winter definitely started and will be back. Thanks for trying. You live in the middle of nowhere. This isn't the NW Burbs thread. Besides the inch we got on Friday, the only time a noticeable accumulation occurred in NYC was on 11/4 and it was only 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 You live in the middle of nowhere. This isn't the NW Burbs thread. Besides the inch we got on Friday, the only time a noticeable accumulation occurred in NYC was on 11/4 and it was only 3". He has exactly .1" snow more than my area and I'm well south of Mt. Zucker. Unfortunately the heat island kills you guys with many of these marginal events. That being said most areas outside of the city have over 10" and many can easily surpass 15" or 20" in the next 7 to 10 days if these clippers produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 the most impressive winds will be post frontal IMO much better mixing with a strong LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 the 00z nam is way off with sfc temps near the warm front 3z temps (time sensitive) 3z nam forecast the nam forecast upper 30s in areas that are currently near 50 (delaware) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 He has exactly .1" snow more than my area and I'm well south of Mt. Zucker. Unfortunately the heat island kills you guys with many of these marginal events. That being said most areas outside of the city have over 10" and many can easily surpass 15" or 20" in the next 7 to 10 days if these clippers produce. only because u got into a heavy band in the november storm, u had 12-14 zucker probably 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 nam bufkit for thursday morning at ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Does anyone know if these maps use algorithms that take into account the strong inversion? If this gust map output does, then LI is downright screwed. 60-80mph gusts on LI with gusts near 90mph over the ocean I doubt that because I don't think these algorithms take into account the inversion. Would be one hell of a night if there was no inversion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If a few inches of slop gets your jollies off then more power to you. People clearly want a KU and won't be satisfied until they get it. My message to them is "Don't hold your breath waiting for it". In this disappointing winter, I'll take what I can get. After all, it's just snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The 0z NAM has some steep mid-level lapse rates between tomorrow night, that could at least support t-storms, ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Where is everyone in regards to tomorrows threat? While 60mph onshore wind gusts seem minor after 3/10, Irene and Sandy this should still be a high impact event. I think the super heavy precip in front of the cold front (the gravity wave Upton was talking about) should be enough to mix down serious wind. Unlike past events that under preformed i think this one may over preform. How often do we see 90-100 knots at 900? Like I said heavy enough precip to break the inversion and someone gusts over 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 At 4AM, its 59 at Dulles, 42 at BWI. Can you say "warm front"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 09Z Temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Where is everyone in regards to tomorrows threat? While 60mph onshore wind gusts seem minor after 3/10, Irene and Sandy this should still be a high impact event. I think the super heavy precip in front of the cold front (the gravity wave Upton was talking about) should be enough to mix down serious wind. Unlike past events that under preformed i think this one may over preform. How often do we see 90-100 knots at 900? Like I said heavy enough precip to break the inversion and someone gusts over 70. All the kids want this time of year is snow. They would pass up a hurricane for a 6" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 All the kids want this time of year is snow. They would pass up a hurricane for a 6" storm. I'm pretty sure a guy from long beach would prefer the 6" storm too. Damn kids! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm pretty sure a guy from long beach would prefer the 6" storm too. Damn kids! Despite the fact that my summer home was completely destroyed down in Atlantic County I would still rather have the hurricane from a weather enthusiast standpoint. I'm sitting right around 18" of total snowfall this year. I'm done with these little events. Go big or bring on Spring already. Let's keep this thread on topic. The 6z NAM wants to weaken the squall line right as it gets here. It's why some areas in PA get 2.5"+ and most of us see less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 0z euro cut the precip amounts for NYC to only .55" of rain. And .48" of it falls in a 6 hour period from 1am to 7am with very little before and after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 0z euro cut the precip amounts for NYC to only .55" of rain. And .48" of it falls in a 6 hour period from 1am to 7am with very little before and after. New sref mean is in 100% agreement with the 0z euro also. .50" of precip for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 And you can add the new 12z NAM as well to the drying trend for NYC/LI. .49" of total precip to match the euro and srefs almost to the exact amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Quite a warm surge today on the 4 km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Quite a warm surge today on the 4 km NAM. temp8.gif oh my. is that a small spot of 70 I see west of NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.