Levels of Snow Futility

[GEOS5ftw]

I've been lurking for a while, but this is my first post...the mounting frustration from this and last year's winter is clearly evident so I thought I'd have a little fun with it. 

 

If you are a fan of sports you may notice that they are like weather in many ways, but specifically that something out of your control can cause such great joy or consternation. I'm sure this is a psychological condition but that's not my area of expertise. Anyway, some of you may be familiar with Bill Simmons' Levels of Losing. Basically, it is a list of ways, in order of increasing disappointment, that a team can let its fans down.

 

So, inspired by this and the many ways we have been missed by snowstorms in recent years, here is my attempt at Levels of Snow Futility for the DC area in particular, although some are applicable in other areas. These are all scenarios where some (even a consensus) of models will show a warning situation 3-5 or even fewer days in advance, only to have it fall apart sometimes even as it happens. These are rated from most to least traumatic, at least in my opinion - the lower numbers have some redeeming characteristics. Feel free to suggest other examples, or another level (or change order) - this is just a starting point.

 

(edited to incorporate suggestions...keep them coming)

0. The Ping of Death

Everything about the storm is on track, you’ve already accumulated a decent coating of snow (maybe even enough to cover the grass or shovel), but then you hear that ping and know your total will be on if not below the low end of predictions. Why is that warm layer always above 850mb where you can’t see it on the maps? 

example: Feb 11, 1994

counterexample: Feb 10, 2010 (always in zugszwang), 2/25/07 (zwyts)

 

1. The Dryslot

You got your front end thump, but the back edge showed up on radar way too soon. That backbuilding/pivot never works out here, does it?

example: 1/22/05 (zwyts, Amped), 2/5/78 (Amped)

counterexample: 12/5/07 (zwyts), 2/5/2010 (Amped)

 

2. The changeover

You got your front end thump, and if you're lucky some even stuck around after the rain and managed to freeze again when the front came through.

example: December 26, 2012

counterexample: March 8, 1995 - unexpected reverse changeover, 1/30/2000 (HighStakes)

 

3. The downslope desert

You were only expecting a few inches, but the mountains robbed you of even that...at least this is usually well shown by the models, but there is always a run or two that will keep hopes alive right up until the event.

example: Jan 25, 2012

counterexample: Jan 20, 2000

 

4. The Refrigerator

The 3 inches of QPF verified...too bad it was all liquid. 1 or 2 degrees would have made all the difference. The mountains usually do ok in this scenario, so at least you can drive to snow?

best example: Jan 28 and Feb 3, 1998...back to back refrigerator storms in a week!

recent example: Oct 29, 2011

counterexample: Knickerbocker?

 

5. The late developer

Those Miller Bs usually don't work out, but this time the models have it developing just in time...until it doesn't. Well, at least they got the wind part of the forecast right.

example: Dec 30, 2000

counterexample: Feb 10, 2010

 

6. Suppressed south

Always count on the north trend...except when its in your favor. Well, the Carolinas deserve it, right?

example: Jan 3, 2002

counterexample: January 25, 2000 (usedtobe)

 

7. The Wide Right

A close cousin of Supressed South...what looks like a classic Miller A setup somehow gets away...usually by some shortwave timing being just a little off. This results in the famous snow hole in the next day's satellite images. Well, the Carolinas, Delmarva, and northeast all deserve it more anyway.

Best example: Dec 26, 2010

Counterexample: 2/16/96

...

 

10. That storm

March 2001...nothing else needs to be said. Something I hope to never experience again in my lifetime. Yes, I am still bitter about this storm.

[eurojosh]

1. Bethesdawx, is that you?

2. This board is awesome.

3. Would the counterexample for #1 be Jan 2011?

[GEOS5ftw]

1. Nope

2. Yep

3. Did any of the models have us getting the dryslot in that storm? I guess I could check the old thread...from the radar archive I'm looking at I guess it could have a been a possibility if the vort track about 100mi further north.

[Deck Pic]

Clever thread. For dry slot the obvious example is 1/22/05 and counter would be 12/5/07 when we got pivoted and super banded. And then ping of death counter would be 2/25/07.

[87storms]

i'm great at remember storms...awful at remembering dates, but #10 was more hilarious than anything.  i was playing basketball outside in shorts and a t-shirt the day before the big storm was supposed to hit.  i remember going to the store that day and the shelves were empty.  this is definitely a funny area to live in during the winter.

[WinterWxLuvr]

What's the history of March 01? Seems to be legendary around here.

[snowloverchris]

What's the history of March 01? Seems to be legendary around here.

Havent posted in years. Sorry I have to do this. No he didnT!!!  ask that question about our most no 1 rated failure storm, the nightmare of all of our failure storms, painful just to remeber what should could have been.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Havent posted in years. Sorry I have to do this. No he didnT!!! ask that question about our most no 1 rated failure storm, the nightmare of all of our failure storms, painful just to remeber what should could have been.

You didn't tell me what happened. ????

[TL97]

What's the history of March 01? Seems to be legendary around here.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/9024-march-4-6-2001/

[WinterWxLuvr]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/9024-march-4-6-2001/

Thanks. I'd like to see some info on the DEC 89 bust. I lived in swva at the time and was forecast to get 16-20 inches and didn't see a flake.

[North Balti Zen]

That's an epic first post, welcome to the forum. Glad to have you here.

[MN Transplant]

Good post. Simmons later did a post where he took his levels of losing and translated them to franchises (I remember, because my Vikings were #2 behind the Cubs). You could probably do the same to cities, and DC would be way, way up there.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Neat idea!

 

Some possible counter-examples off the top of my head:

 

(0)Ping of death:  Feb. 9-10, 2010...got a couple inches of snow, then the precip got lighter with a change-over to sleet and freezing drizzle through much of the night.  Then, as we all know, blizzard and whiteout conditions starting early the morning of the 10th with heavy snow bands into the afternoon.  I know you already mentioned this for (5)The Late Developer, but I think it could also warrant a mention as a counter-example for Ping of Death too.

 

(2)The Changeover:  Jan. 26, 2011 ("Commutageddon").  This may not be totally applicable to the situations you're posing here, but it did occur to me.  We got some snow in the morning of the 26th, some areas received a few to several inches, followed by some drizzle or slight drying out.  Then some moderate rain began in the mid-afternoon, turned to sleet (more like chunks of ice!), and then of course heavy, wet snow.

 

(6)Suppressed South:  We cannot forget Jan. 30, 2010!!  Looked like nothing but dry and quite cold, then the models inched that storm far enough north to give us warning-criteria snows.

[usedtobe]

Neat idea!

 

Some possible counter-examples off the top of my head:

 

(0)Ping of death:  Feb. 9-10, 2010...got a couple inches of snow, then the precip got lighter with a change-over to sleet and freezing drizzle through much of the night.  Then, as we all know, blizzard and whiteout conditions starting early the morning of the 10th with heavy snow bands into the afternoon.  I know you already mentioned this for (5)The Late Developer, but I think it could also warrant a mention as a counter-example for Ping of Death too.

 

(2)The Changeover:  Jan. 26, 2011 ("Commutageddon").  This may not be totally applicable to the situations you're posing here, but it did occur to me.  We got some snow in the morning of the 26th, some areas received a few to several inches, followed by some drizzle or slight drying out.  Then some moderate rain began in the mid-afternoon, turned to sleet (more like chunks of ice!), and then of course heavy, wet snow.

 

(6)Suppressed South:  We cannot forget Jan. 30, 2010!!  Looked like nothing but dry and quite cold, then the models inched that storm far enough north to give us warning-criteria snows.

 

I think the Feb 9-10 event also was an example of the pivot bringing the deformation zone back south. I looked like i would get in the dry slot based on radar,  same think with the feb 5-6 storm.  Both times the deformation zone pivoted back and got me. 

[usedtobe]

The best example of a suppressed south storm that didn't stay supressed was the Jan 26, 2000 storm.  Models had it going way out to sea and not even hitting RDU and it ended up lifting way north and hitting us. especially the southeastern suburbs. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

I think the Feb 9-10 event also was an example of the pivot bringing the deformation zone back south. I looked like i would get in the dry slot based on radar,  same think with the feb 5-6 storm.  Both times the deformation zone pivoted back and got me. 

 

Good points on both those storms.  Indeed, Feb. 9-10, 2010 involved a pivot and deformation band moving into the area after the radar sort of "broke up" for several hours (the time in which we got sleet and freezing drizzle).  Same for Feb. 5-6, 2010...I recall all the weenie near-suicides late night on the 5th, as it looked like the back edge would ruin everything.  But it did pivot of course.  Where I'm at in Silver Spring, the snow did let up some (though never really stopped) in the pre-dawn hours before picking up again during the day of the 6th.

[HighStakes]

How about Superbowl Sunday 2000. Sorta number 2 reverse changeover. Calls for 1-3 then sleet and zr to plain rain. Changeover never really happened, briefly mixed with some sleet and then ended with snow. 7 inches in Reisterstown, up to 9-10 in Carroll County. Great storm on top of a foot of snow from the Tuesday storm. Outsatanding 2 week period of winter, right up there Jan. 87.

[Amped]

Dryslot example. 2/5/78 1/22/2005

 

Counterexample: 2/5/2010

[GEOS5ftw]

Some nice examples and counters. Something that struck out to me was that period 1/20-1/30 2000 - really one of the best winter periods here in my memory, possibly because the storms broke all the stereotypes. It started with a clipper that gave an areawide 3-6 inches, followed by some severe cold and gusty winds that created some decent drifts given the amount of snow. Then of course the 1/25 storm, which would be remarkable on its own merits but of course is known for the forecast bust in the positive direction. The 1/30 storm was a rare "snow-on-snow-on-snow" and my memory agrees with HighStakes mentioned as this was supposed to change over more than it actually did. 

 

The other storm that gets a lot of mentions is 2/10/2010 for singlehandedly breaking a lot of these stereotypes.I actually wasn't living here at the time but I have heard enough, seen the radar loops, to know it was pretty epic. 

 

Trying to think of more categories - maybe something for a storm where the forecast does pretty well, you get low level warning criteria, but it's overshadowed by 2ft+ amounts elsewhere (esp further up 95). This would be low on the list in my opinion - any name suggestions/examples?

[das]

Trying to think of more categories - maybe something for a storm where the forecast does pretty well, you get low level warning criteria, but it's overshadowed by 2ft+ amounts elsewhere (esp further up 95). This would be low on the list in my opinion - any name suggestions/examples?

Great thread. How about "The Late Starter", different than the late developer. A storm where onset shifts later and later until it finally delivers, often too late as weenies have all ready committed weenie suicide. This Friday's clipper that started right on time despite the weenie weeping and gnashing of teeth notwithstanding, I'll have to think of an example or two.

[HighStakes]

Some nice examples and counters. Something that struck out to me was that period 1/20-1/30 2000 - really one of the best winter periods here in my memory, possibly because the storms broke all the stereotypes. It started with a clipper that gave an areawide 3-6 inches, followed by some severe cold and gusty winds that created some decent drifts given the amount of snow. Then of course the 1/25 storm, which would be remarkable on its own merits but of course is known for the forecast bust in the positive direction. The 1/30 storm was a rare "snow-on-snow-on-snow" and my memory agrees with HighStakes mentioned as this was supposed to change over more than it actually did. 

 

The other storm that gets a lot of mentions is 2/10/2010 for singlehandedly breaking a lot of these stereotypes.I actually wasn't living here at the time but I have heard enough, seen the radar loops, to know it was pretty epic. 

 

Trying to think of more categories - maybe something for a storm where the forecast does pretty well, you get low level warning criteria, but it's overshadowed by 2ft+ amounts elsewhere (esp further up 95). This would be low on the list in my opinion - any name suggestions/examples?

There was almost a 4th storm during that period. After the first clipper that kicked everything off that you mentioned, there was a bitter cold day that followed, then we were progged to get a system over that weekend that ended up getting sheared apart and left us with a cloudy Sunday with a few flurries. Ofcourse we made up for it in a big way a couple days later.

 

2/10/2010 had a deformation band that was simply unbelievable. It absolutely pounded the northern tier of MD for an incredibly long duration. This area was the sweetspot.