SnowGoose69 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 SPC WRF holding the idea of something from 13-18z but also agrees on the precip shield sort of falling apart over the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I noticed the SREF guidance indicated the best fronto forcing should go NW of the Delaware Valley. My concern is that we end up getting weak forcing, spotty wintry mix/freezing drizzle instead of a band of light snow during the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I tend to think the NAM does well in CAD situations (like this) at the surface...a GFS/EC aloft, NAM surface blend probably works well. Precip will be the wildcard. You would think it should, but to be diplomatic its solutions have more standard deviations then you would like to see so close in to the start of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I noticed the SREF guidance indicated the best fronto forcing should go NW of the Delaware Valley. My concern is that we end up getting weak forcing, spotty wintry mix/freezing drizzle instead of a band of light snow during the morning. The 00z nam run fcst fgen did not support its own fast break out of pcpn, don't know if the 12z run did the same. To be fair the fcst isentropic lift on the gfs suggested the nam faster timing may have been right. The snow scoffed at the wind on Friday, we got ratios as high as 30:1 in Montgomery County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 The 00z nam run fcst fgen did not support its own fast break out of pcpn, don't know if the 12z run did the same. To be fair the fcst isentropic lift on the gfs suggested the nam faster timing may have been right. The snow scoffed at the wind on Friday, we got ratios as high as 30:1 in Montgomery County. Thanks for the info. Faster timing with isentropic lift makes sense and so does the unsupportive fgen on the NAM. By the way, I live in Mount Laurel now (I know you asked a while back) and those ratios make sense. We almost made 2" haha... still only the second biggest snowfall of the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I noticed the SREF guidance indicated the best fronto forcing should go NW of the Delaware Valley. My concern is that we end up getting weak forcing, spotty wintry mix/freezing drizzle instead of a band of light snow during the morning. Yeah I agree, my concern has been lack of precip, not temps, with this event. A little concerned the NAM's on it's own with the wettest solution, but we'll see. Surface CAD is pretty impressive, most to the NW of PHL are rotting at 32F until late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Latest Wxsim has .... What is Wxsim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 pardon my interruption into your forum, but the12z RGEM 24 hr panel doesn't look bad for our areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 here's the total qpf from the RGEM for the 12 hrs ending 36 hrs (whifch would include that blob of precip about to hit our ears depicted on the 24 hr map I posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 That's pretty solid. Nice to see a move toward the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Euro is a compro between the GFS and NAM. A touch slower on the thump but not as slow as the GFS...probably a bit more robust on precip than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 http://www.wxsim.com/ see above for what it is - great personal backyard forecasting program that allows for plenty of what ifs and input from your home weather station and built in advection routines from upwind sites etc.. What is Wxsim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 Latest Wxsim has trended a little more frozen since 6z for the NW Philly burbs SN/IP mix arriving by 530am temp 29.8 around 0.11" of mix to ZR with temps rising above 0c by 1030am then off an on rain/drizzle right thru Tues AM with 0.30" of precip I am a little wary of it getting above freezing that quickly - either way looks tough for the early AM commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Should keep in mind that the last snow event even when modeled to move in faster still moved in faster then expected by an hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 slightly less qpf at 18z on the nam...a bit milder aloft as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Mount Holly thinks that Advisories are likely for this system: .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A VERY ACTIVE LONG TERM IS IN STORE FOR OUR CWA WITH A LIKELY ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACT EVENT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY A MULTI FACETED WIND AND HEAVY RAIN EVENT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK. Pretty much guaranteed with any mixed precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 18z nam always warms it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Well, whatever snow falls, I think it'll amount to less an inch at TTN... warm air aloft comes in too fast, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 WWAs are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delgto04 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 WWAs are up.Surprised not much discussion on this considering there were 20 pages on a WWA for previous event. It's gonna be pretty messy for am rush if timing is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Surprised not much discussion on this considering there were 20 pages on a WWA for previous event. It's gonna be pretty messy for am rush if timing is correct. Not many people enjoy ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Surprised not much discussion on this considering there were 20 pages on a WWA for previous event. It's gonna be pretty messy for am rush if timing is correct. Also the other thread had a couple of bonus days of leadup. This really didn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 yeah pretty shocked how a much more impacting dangerous event is getting so little play on the boards compared to an innocuous coating to 2 event where people seemed to be going ga ga over The kids want a big snowstorm. They don't care for this piddly crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The kids want a big snowstorm. They don't care for this piddly crap.Also, it's the weekend. Other stuff going on for some of us. I am concerned about the morning, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I think it also has to do with the fact that this won't affect everybody in the region, so some people don't really care about this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 hopefully just a 2hr delay for schools at worst so my son wont have to burn a vacation school day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Also the other thread had a couple of bonus days of leadup. This really didn't... This. The past event started with some juiced up runs which helped engage interest and gave the thread an early start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Cooling down nicely....24 in my part of Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 High today here in NW Chesco 31.8 - 7th straight day below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 yeah pretty shocked how a much more impacting dangerous event is getting so little play on the boards compared to an innocuous coating to 2 event where people seemed to be going ga ga over You will not get anymore snow then you did on Friday. These events usually go quickly to rain, it's not going to be a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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