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grading the winter of 2012-13 HALF WAY


thunderbolt

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As for this year, I'd give it a D+.

 

I'll keep my grade as a D+, largely because every WWA/WSW we had this year busted on the low side (that is, below even the minimum forecast amount).  The latest, today, originally called for 5-11" of snow and we ended up with 2 inches.  The best event we had was not even forecast.  The only thing that saves an F grade was the 5/6 day stretch in February where we had minor bits of snow each day.  I can't necessarily justify a worse grade just because we had many very minor events, but only a couple 3" events even worth a ruler grade.

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Compared to last year -- B

Compared to "normal" -- C-

Compared to unrealistic expectations -- D-

Compared to Joe Bastardi's predictions -- F

 

Updated:

 

Compared to last year -- C+

Compared to normal -- D

Compared to unrealistic expectations -- F

Compared to JB -- F

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NOTICE:

 

Let it be known that on this 7th day of March, 2013, upon review and consensus and, as set forth by this Review Board, "Very Old Man Winter" (student) has been expelled due to failing grades for his performance during the winters of 2011-12 & 2012-13!

 

Upon his successful completion of (sweltering) Summer School courses in "Philly Area Winter Meteorology" and a written commitment to over-perform during the Winter of 2013-14 ad infinitum, his records will be examined by Head Master (aka "HM") to determine his eligibility for re-admittance! 

 

"Mother Nature" is hereby required to acknowledged and sign receipt of this Notice!!

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NOTICE:

Let it be known that on this 7th day of March, 2013, upon review and consensus and, as set forth by this Review Board, "Very Old Man Winter" (student) has been expelled due to failing grades for his performance during the winters of 2011-12 & 2012-13!

Upon his successful completion of (sweltering) Summer School courses in "Philly Area Winter Meteorology" and a written commitment to over-perform during the Winter of 2013-14 ad infinitum, his records will be examined by Head Master (aka "HM") to determine his eligibility for re-admittance!

"Mother Nature" is hereby required to acknowledged and sign receipt of this Notice!!

Awesome.
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NOTICE:

 

Let it be known that on this 7th day of March, 2013, upon review and consensus and, as set forth by this Review Board, "Very Old Man Winter" (student) has been expelled due to failing grades for his performance during the winters of 2011-12 & 2012-13!

 

Upon his successful completion of (sweltering) Summer School courses in "Philly Area Winter Meteorology" and a written commitment to over-perform during the Winter of 2013-14 ad infinitum, his records will be examined by Head Master (aka "HM") to determine his eligibility for re-admittance! 

 

"Mother Nature" is hereby required to acknowledged and sign receipt of this Notice!!

Now wait just a minute! :P

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Compared to last year -- B+   (at least we had shots this year and had some snow around Christmas)

Compared to my expectations -- B+  (I figured slightly cooler than last year with minimal snow.  I was wrong.  Its  better than I figured).

Compared to the 25" (for PHL) projections by many -- D-  (it would be F if I could predict the future, since I think we will fall well short of those forecasts and certainly short of normal)

Compared to normal - I'll say "D" but its hard to judge the criteria.  Is "normal" an "A" ?   Or, is it a "C"?   I would think its a "C" (because then what would you do if we were well above normal?).   At the hypothetical halfway point, we should have about 12"......we have 8".

 

Given that meteorological winter is over and I'm not anticipating any snowfalls over 2" for the rest of "snow season":

 

Last year 10",  this year 13",  normal, roughly 23-24" (no official stats).

 

Compared to last year - B (lowered a bit from the halfway point grade, due to later winter frustration)

Compared to my expectations - B

Compared to the 25" + projections for PHL by many media mets - F

Compared to normal - D (last year would have been D-, I guess, "F" would have been 72-73, 91-92).

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Unfortunately, this was another N of 40, E of 75 winter for many in the Mt. Holly WFO. It's a pretty stark difference just 25mi W and S of my area receiving less than half the totals. It reminds me of 2008 - 2009 where 25mi north of my area nearly doubled my totals that year. Anyway, due to receiving more than + 5" over average IMBY, I give this season a B grade. That's largely due to snowfall. If this winter was a bit colder with longer stretches of snow cover, the grade could have risen to a B+ even with a bit less snow. There are only 6 years with A grades in the last twenty years: 1994, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2011. Conversely, there was an equal number of failures: 1995, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2008 and 2012. May next year be one to tip the A scale for all and good luck.

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Unfortunately, this was another N of 40, E of 75 winter for many in the Mt. Holly WFO. It's a pretty stark difference just 25mi W and S of my area receiving less than half the totals. It reminds me of 2008 - 2009 where 25mi north of my area nearly doubled my totals that year. Anyway, due to receiving more than + 5" over average IMBY, I give this season a B grade. That's largely due to snowfall. If this winter was a bit colder with longer stretches of snow cover, the grade could have risen to a B+ even with a bit less snow. There are only 6 years with A grades in the last twenty years: 1994, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2011. Conversely, there was an equal number of failures: 1995, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2008 and 2012. May next year be one to tip the A scale for all and good luck.

Yeah, it shocks me that TTN has only had around 17"...I've recorded 46" to the north of NYC in Westchester County, which is almost 10" above my average, or 125% of normal. BDR in SW Connecticut has had 61" this winter, which is almost 200% of normal. Just a ridiculous gradient and very similar to 08-09...that's exactly what I thought of too.

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Unfortunately, this was another N of 40, E of 75 winter for many in the Mt. Holly WFO. It's a pretty stark difference just 25mi W and S of my area receiving less than half the totals. It reminds me of 2008 - 2009 where 25mi north of my area nearly doubled my totals that year. Anyway, due to receiving more than + 5" over average IMBY, I give this season a B grade. That's largely due to snowfall. If this winter was a bit colder with longer stretches of snow cover, the grade could have risen to a B+ even with a bit less snow. There are only 6 years with A grades in the last twenty years: 1994, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2011. Conversely, there was an equal number of failures: 1995, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2008 and 2012. May next year be one to tip the A scale for all and good luck.

 

 

Everyone basically northeast of Hightstown NJ has done very well since 2000. Of the past 13 winters, I've only seen 4 that were sub normal (01/02, 06/07, 07/08, and 11/12). Pretty impressive. In strong contrast, folks from the PHL/SW NJ area through DCA/BWI have seen by and large sub normal snowfall years since 2000. It's definitely been a 40N/75 E type of season and decade/period since 2000 really.

 

I'm at 33.6" on the season with one MECS, a February SECS, and March near SECS (5.5") with a few light hitters around Christmas. I'm up around a C+ in my mind, but if the next couple weeks can produce another 3"+ event at least, which I think it will, then I'll give this winter a B-. If we get a 1958 type redux, well then all bets are off. An A is within reach.

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Yeah, it shocks me that TTN has only had around 17"...I've recorded 46" to the north of NYC in Westchester County, which is almost 10" above my average, or 125% of normal. BDR in SW Connecticut has had 61" this winter, which is almost 200% of normal. Just a ridiculous gradient and very similar to 08-09...that's exactly what I thought of too.

The gradient this year is quite ridiculous. I think Philly is at like, 3" for the season. That is really pathetic for a year with 2 confirmed KU events.

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Everyone basically northeast of Hightstown NJ has done very well since 2000. Of the past 13 winters, I've only seen 4 that were sub normal (01/02, 06/07, 07/08, and 11/12). Pretty impressive. In strong contrast, folks from the PHL/SW NJ area through DCA/BWI have seen by and large sub normal snowfall years since 2000. It's definitely been a 40N/75 E type of season and decade/period since 2000 really.

I'm at 33.6" on the season with one MECS, a February SECS, and March near SECS (5.5") with a few light hitters around Christmas. I'm up around a C+ in my mind, but if the next couple weeks can produce another 3"+ event at least, which I think it will, then I'll give this winter a B-. If we get a 1958 type redux, well then all bets are off. An A is within reach.

I didn't realize the N40 W75 thing was ongoing since 2000. That's really remarkable. I guess all of those three 20+ HECS's Philly had in 2009-10 was their year to balance it out a bit. And as far as 1958, if that were to happen. Then yeah, slam dunk A.
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Unfortunately, this was another N of 40, E of 75 winter for many in the Mt. Holly WFO. It's a pretty stark difference just 25mi W and S of my area receiving less than half the totals. It reminds me of 2008 - 2009 where 25mi north of my area nearly doubled my totals that year. Anyway, due to receiving more than + 5" over average IMBY, I give this season a B grade. That's largely due to snowfall. If this winter was a bit colder with longer stretches of snow cover, the grade could have risen to a B+ even with a bit less snow. There are only 6 years with A grades in the last twenty years: 1994, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2011. Conversely, there was an equal number of failures: 1995, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2008 and 2012. May next year be one to tip the A scale for all and good luck.

 

1994, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2011 all get A grades in my book though i would add 2001

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1994, 1996, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2011 all get A grades in my book though i would add 2001

2001 and 2004 are definitely borderline B+ A years. I left those out since they both failed to exceed average snowfall by 10". It's one my silly criteria for an A season although 2004 was extremely close and the Dec 5-6th long duration 16" event is also one of my top 5 storms due to its duration with 40 - 45dbz echoes which dumped 11" in like three hours.

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