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grading the winter of 2012-13 HALF WAY


thunderbolt

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Just looking at the overall 

If I can count Sandy and the following nor'easter plus the Christmas Eve snow plus golf played in December and January minus the lack of a significant snowfall during the cold snap and the great learning experience in the medium -long range thread - a B+ grade.for the last three months. Of course I look at it a little differently having a course membership ;) .

Sandy happened in October !

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Ok it hasnt been pretty so far, but the 4" total was for all of last winter at PHL.  Last year to date we were at 2.8".  We dont have a climate site in the PHL PA suburbs, but I would imagine they are close to normal for snowfall to date. 

 

A little beyond the Philly suburbs, but without any record keeping in my location, and knowing we average about 40 inches per winter, I'd say we're close to normal to date for the lower coal region.

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B-  here in NW Chester County for the following reasons:

 

- Current Snowfall for the season is 13.7" 103% of normal to date - on our way to an above average season in the 35" range

- A cold November (-3.3 degrees vs average) along with a 4.5" snowstorm (any snow in November is a surprise -normal here in Chesco is 1.2") 

- Very warm December but saved again by above average snowfall (7.0" vs normal of 5.4") - thanks to 3 events Christmas week including another 4" event on the 29th and of course a snowfall on Christmas Eve itself (first since 1966 - extra points for this!)

- January only running +1.3 above normal temps despite the early warmth - in fact the cold of the last week has been much more impressive than both the earlier January warmth and December- as in both December and January only 3 days were 10+ on temps vs. normal while today mark's our 5th straight day with double digit BELOW normal temps

I like your reasoning, and will go with a B- for my area as well.  The Christmas Eve snow definitely bumps up the grade in my book.

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Compared to last year -- B

Compared to "normal" -- C-

Compared to unrealistic expectations -- D-

Compared to Joe Bastardi's predictions -- F

I think this is the correct perspective (and the last item is true for most winters!).

 

Compared to last year -- B+   (at least we had shots this year and had some snow around Christmas)

Compared to my expectations -- B+  (I figured slightly cooler than last year with minimal snow.  I was wrong.  Its  better than I figured).

Compared to the 25" (for PHL) projections by many -- D-  (it would be F if I could predict the future, since I think we will fall well short of those forecasts and certainly short of normal)

Compared to normal - I'll say "D" but its hard to judge the criteria.  Is "normal" an "A" ?   Or, is it a "C"?   I would think its a "C" (because then what would you do if we were well above normal?).   At the hypothetical halfway point, we should have about 12"......we have 8".

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Compared to normal - I'll say "D" but its hard to judge the criteria.  Is "normal" an "A" ?   Or, is it a "C"?   I would think its a "C" (because then what would you do if we were well above normal?).   At the hypothetical halfway point, we should have about 12"......we have 8".

 

I judged it as normal being "C".  With above normal temps and below normal snow, I put down a D.  If it had been much warmer and less snowy (i.e., no November snowstorm), I'd probably have given it an F.

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If normal is the average amount of snowfall and temps for one's given area for the meteorological winter, DJF or calendar winter, than this one blows chunks - D+. The D+ grade is merely reflective of the last week, good cold and light snows. Without it, this would be an F. However, if we can factor in November 7-8 and its 13" pasting here locally (An awesome event any month) then the grade rises significantly to a B.

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If normal is the average amount of snowfall and temps for one's given area for the meteorological winter, DJF or calendar winter, than this one blows chunks - D+. The D+ grade is merely reflective of the last week, good cold and light snows. Without it, this would be an F. However, if we can factor in November 7-8 and its 13" pasting here locally (An awesome event any month) then the grade rises significantly to a B.

 

 

 

November was the best winter month this year so far. It had way more snow and actually a slightly colder mean temperature than December IMBY!

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November was the best winter month this year so far. It had way more snow and actually a slightly colder mean temperature than December IMBY!

It's funny how things workout like that sometimes. That one snowfall completely skews my mean. What's even crazier is MBY is only a flizzard and a SECS away from average, something quite doable.

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It's funny how things workout like that sometimes. That one snowfall completely skews my mean. What's even crazier is MBY is only a flizzard and a SECS away from average, something quite doable.

 

Heh yeah, without November my grade for back home would be a big fat F.

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I'd give it a C, so far.  About average snowfall so far (12.5"), but only one really good storm - the early November one, so that's a C for me.  Warmer than normal conditions, which suck, but I did love the past week's great cold snap, so they cancel each other, for me and it stays a C, since snowfall is, by far, my most important consideration. 

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Honestly, it's all about perception. If February gives 3 snow events i would say it was an OK winter. I don't need a huge snowstorm. I'd rather have 10 2 inch events than one 20 inch event for the season. As long as its snowing, I'm fine. 

I prefer the 1 twenty incher...  more excitement and fun at the time, nice and relaxing the rest of the winter ;)

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Considering the fact that Middletown, DE has received probably 2" of snow, the persistent bad storm track that has resulted in cold/dry and warm/wet, but counting the flurries on Christmas eve and two other minor snow "events", I'd give this winter a D. I'm hopeful but not optimistic that we'll get enough snow to cover the grass. To give you an idea of my general pessimism, I'm already thinking about my beloved Tigers in spring training in Lakeland, FL.

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Blah, i garuntee people would forget about that storm 3 weeks later. I would never take a 20 inch storm in december then the rest of the winter is shut out, no thanks. It's just like the december 09 storm. Philly got avg snow from that one storm. By mid january the suicides were all over.

On the boards, maybe.  I wouldn't.  I remember when I was a kid, up to February 2nd the winter of 94-95 was awful.  Just an inch of snow up to that point, back home.  Then... whoosh!  14" of snow, 3"/hour rate for a time.  That made the winter for me.  (It also helped that it was poorly forecast, I think the forecast was 4-6, then 4-8, then 8-12, then finally 15 after we already had 12... busts on the high side are nice ;) )

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On the boards, maybe.  I wouldn't.  I remember when I was a kid, up to February 2nd the winter of 94-95 was awful.  Just an inch of snow up to that point, back home.  Then... whoosh!  14" of snow, 3"/hour rate for a time.  That made the winter for me.  (It also helped that it was poorly forecast, I think the forecast was 4-6, then 4-8, then 8-12, then finally 15 after we already had 12... busts on the high side are nice ;) )

Lol well we are talking about on the boards. I'm not saying just one inch of snow. All I'm saying is I'd rather had 10 2 inch storms or 4/5 3-6 inch storms spread out all winter than just one monster and nothing else.

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Lol well we are talking about on the boards. I'm not saying just one inch of snow. All I'm saying is I'd rather had 10 2 inch storms or 4/5 3-6 inch storms spread out all winter than just one monster and nothing else.

 

Screw the boards, I care about what I like ;)  4/5 3-6 inch storms would be better than 10 2 inch storms for the same reasons that 1 20 inch storm would be better than 4/5 3-6 inch storms.

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Screw the boards, I care about what I like ;)  4/5 3-6 inch storms would be better than 10 2 inch storms for the same reasons that 1 20 inch storm would be better than 4/5 3-6 inch storms.

Well next winter i hope elko gets one 20 inch storm in the beginning of december then shut out the rest of the winter. I bet you would pout like your cats do when you push them off your keyboard.

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