buckeyefan1 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yep... gotta follow that blog around here and if he comes on TV in suspenders then it is about to get bad.... but thats known right? Oh yeah, if he comes on air with his suspenders showing, then it's on! Love James Spann! And hello to you 'Dega from Cullman, AL! And Hello Dega & Cullman, from Florence, AL! The workplace I'm at has sent out alerts to employees directly and to supervisors to hold meetings to discuss it with employees. I'm a temporary contractor here, and several people have as come over to make sure I know what might happen and where the building shelters are. They have this down pat by now. Here I thought I'd miss all the SVR/TOR fun because this temporary relocation gig was supposed to be over with before the real spring fun hit. Thank you for the video and information, gang. Welcome Michelle, Sharon and Dylan Got the day off tomorrow so I can goof off with the ladies before the front rolls in CAE.............................. .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...DEEP TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARDACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH ACOLD FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CROSSTHE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...THE UPPER RIDGEAXIS WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS WITHDEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.SIGNIFICANT 500MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL PRECEDE THE UPPER TROUGH ASTHE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCIATED 150KT UPPER JET SHIFTSOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.FORECAST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ALSO SHOWING A VERYSTRONG...NEARLY 75KT 850MB JET SHIFTING OVER THE CAROLINAS DURINGTHE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTEDTO SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO THELOWER TO MID 60S. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 1.60-1.70INCHES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99THPERCENTILE. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BUT WIND SHEAR WILLBE EXTREME AND THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC HIGH SHEAR LOW CAPE(HSLC) ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIAL FORSTRONG WINDS TO REACH THE SURFACE...AFTER COORDINATION WITHSURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FROM 11AMWEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING.ALL OF THESE FACTORS LEAD TO REASONABLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEREWILL BE A LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THATWILL BE CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE.SPC CONTINUES TO OUTLOOK THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVEREWEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TIME FRAME FORTHE CONVECTION TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BEBETWEEN 22Z-06Z. CONTINUING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FROM WEST TOEAST LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATIONAMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY SPEED OF THE SYSTEM BUT COULD SEE AQUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I've been busy these past few days and haven't really followed this event that closely. Looks like it could be a pretty serious wind event. It's certainly strange to finally be getting a severe event that's forecasted to come through GA during peak heating time. No wedge keeping us in the 50's either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 HurricaneTracker any updates on the 00Z NAM if it changed instability or increased/decreased wind fields for tomorrows event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No wedge keeping us in the 50's either. No kidding, seems rare to be in the warm sector, especially this time of year. Anyway, things are really popping over in eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana at this hour with discrete cells forming, many rotating. May need to get the GR lvl 3 cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No kidding, seems rare to be in the warm sector, especially this time of year. Anyway, things are really popping over in eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana at this hour with discrete cells forming, many rotating. May need to get the GR lvl 3 cranking. 7 tornado warnings currently, I'd say go ahead and get it going! Not convinced about any real severe wx potential in the majority of NC tomorrow outside of straight line winds. Wishing there was something on the models but given there's hardly anything plus it's January I have little hope it will be anything outside some pesky power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 7 tornado warnings currently, I'd say go ahead and get it going! Not convinced about any real severe wx potential in the majority of NC tomorrow outside of straight line winds. Wishing there was something on the models but given there's hardly anything plus it's January I have little hope it will be anything outside some pesky power outages. You hoping for severe damaging weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Thanks, buckeyefan1! Another discussion on this same system is going on over at http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38901-january-28-30-severe-threat-s-plains-to-tn-valley-to-se/ . That line's not expected to hit here until well after midnight. It's going to be a looooong night. On the plus side, there should be plenty of chances to learn how to use the GR2A i just installed Enjoy the ride, Georgians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Well, apparently all the storminess is being caused by Winter Storm "Magnus". I know the naming of these storms by TWC has been covered extensively in the main board, but really, I had no idea they were going to name each and every system that comes on shore on the west coast. They're gonna run out of names really quick when we have a really active winter. Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 You hoping for severe damaging weather? I hate when people ask stuff like this. I'm sure neither Jon nor anyone else on here wants damaging or deadly weather. This question comes up every single time we have a severe weather event and someone makes a post like Jon's. People just want a little activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I hate when people ask stuff like this. I'm sure neither Jon nor anyone else on here wants damaging or deadly weather. This question comes up every single time we have a severe weather event and someone makes a post like Jon's. People just want a little activity. Unfortunately for this hobby, unless it's a tornado over a wide open field, its almost impossible to have a major exciting weather event that doesn't cost live and/or dollars. Just the way it is. Heck, a snowstorm that we would all give our left arm for, the blizzard of '93, killed over 300 people. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I have limited knowledge at reading the models and was wondering if any of them were projecting this much freezing precp on the backside of this system ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 7 tornado warnings currently, I'd say go ahead and get it going! Not convinced about any real severe wx potential in the majority of NC tomorrow outside of straight line winds. Wishing there was something on the models but given there's hardly anything plus it's January I have little hope it will be anything outside some pesky power outages. Setup might produce a similar event to this at least with all the talk of widespread high wind gust http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20040307/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 You hoping for severe damaging weather? I'd honestly rather have an isolated tornado in a non-populated area with 0 casualties costing $0.00 in damage. That's what I'd prefer. We're going to get severe damaging weather no matter how you look at it in the case of straight line winds. I'd rather not have winds at all. Of course I'd rather take a light rain over any storm costing lives. Tell me how many deadly tornado outbreaks have occurred in January in NC and I'll cave. I hate when people ask stuff like this. I'm sure neither Jon nor anyone else on here wants damaging or deadly weather. This question comes up every single time we have a severe weather event and someone makes a post like Jon's. People just want a little activity. +1. We're on a weatherboard folks, it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 the RAP cranks the SRH across AL, GA and Carolinas (showing 600+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Birmingham reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with a dewpoint of 63. Winds out of the south at 18 gusting to 21......all at 10 PM on January 29. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I have limited knowledge at reading the models and was wondering if any of them were projecting this much freezing precp on the backside of this system ??? None. With maybe an exception to the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Live coverage from Nashville, a couple of tornado warnings to the west: http://www.wkrn.com/category/240149/livestream http://www.newschannel5.com/category/242418/live-video temps have risen from 66 at sunset to 71, 60 dewpoint. Winds have been moderate to strong since about 5pm, really howling at times the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 James Spann just went live on 33/40 http://www.ustream.tv/channel/ABC-33-40-Main He is wearing his suspenders...so it's gonna be bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 James Spann just went live on 33/40 http://www.ustream.tv/channel/ABC-33-40-Main He is wearing his suspenders...so it's gonna be bad... He always wears suspenders, it's when he takes them off, you're in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharonA Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Grump, can't get the streaming to work. Lots of wind here in Florence all night, and the first rain hit about 10 minutes ago. That section of the line that went just N of Nashville looked very unpleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It appears Gallatin, TN just got hit by a tornado, and 105 mph winds reported at the NWS office in Old Hickory, TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 He always wears suspenders, it's when he takes them off, you're in trouble. D'Oh! Thanks for the correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GSP on top of everything in the overnight! .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 335 AM WED...THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGHTHE PERIOD...FEATURING A 590DM RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND APROGRESSIVE L/W TROF ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT7Z...A STRONG SFC COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY JUST EAST OF THEMISSISSIPPI RIVER. ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT...AN ACTIVE SQUALLLINE IS PUSHING EAST...HIGHLIGHTED BY NUMEROUS TORNADO WATCHES. THEENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FEATURES DEEP RETURN FLOW FROM THEGULF...TRANSPORTING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AS FAR NORTH AS THESOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ARE EQUALLYIMPRESSIVE...WITH L70S INTO MIDDLE TN. HARD TO BELIEVE IN LATEJANUARY. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTOVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTYWINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OVERLAP PORTIONSOF THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THEFRONT...EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPERATURESWELL BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE MTNS LATE TONIGHT...YIELDING UPSLOPESNOW SHOWERS AND BLACK ICE.WIND...THE LATEST KGSP VWP INDICATE 50 KTS AS LOW AS 5KFT...APPROXIMATELY H85. THE RADAR OBSERVATION AGREES WITH THENAM12...WHICH PROGS THE AREA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD FIELD OFH85 WINDS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER. THE H85 WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THEFRONT APPROACHES...REACHING AROUND 70 KTS DURING PEAK HEATING THISAFTERNOON. BELOW H85...THE LEVEL OF 50 KTS IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 3KFT OR H9 BY 21Z. THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THE WARM SIDE OF THEFRONT...HOWEVER...MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITHIN CONVECTION AND DIURNALMIXING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITION AT THE SFC. GIVEN THE 50 KTLEVEL LOWERING TO 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...MTN LOCATIONS REMAIN THEMOST VULNERABLE TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. COUPLE THE HIGH WIND WITHHEAVY RAIN AND SATURATE SOIL...TREE DAMAGE SHOULD BECOME COMMONACROSS NC MTNS AND RABUN COUNTY LATER TODAY. AREAS EAST OF THE MTNSWILL SEE REGULAR GUSTS INTO THE U30KTS RANGE...ALSO WITH WET SOIL.THE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY AREAS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS WILL VEER WEST AND SPEEDS WILLSTEADILY DECREASE.HEAVY RAIN...RECENT RADAR RAIN FALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT LITTLEMORE THAN A .25 OF AN INCH TO .5 INCH HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE UPSLOPE MTNAREAS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS LLVL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOWSTRENGTHENS...SHRA SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MTN AREAS. THE UPSLOPESHRA WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS THE H5 TROF AXIS APPROACHES THROUGHTHE DAY. QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MB/HR BY 0Z.THE COMBINATION OF LIFT ALONG COLD POOL...LLVL INSTABILITY...QG /JET DIVERGENCE FORCING WILL SUPPORT A BROAD BAND OF SHRA/TSRA THISAFTERNOON. THIS BAND SHOULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF HEAVYDOWNPOURS ACROSS THE REGION OF A.M. RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLMAY CONSERVATIVELY RANGE FROM 2 TO 2.5 INCHES WITHIN THE WATCHAREA...EXCEEDING 1 HR FFG. WE WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH UNCHANGED.SVR WEATHER...A SQUALL LINE WITH A LONG HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDSAND TORNADOES WILL CROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THISEVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL FEATURE HIGHSHEAR AND LOW CAPE...SUPPORTIVE OF QLCS STORM STRUCTURE. I WILLANTICIPATE THAT A FIELD OF CAPES WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE THISAFTERNOON...WITH VALUES REACHING 500 J/KG. LLVL WIND SPEEDS ANDVEERING LLVL FLOW WILL LIKELY REACH 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES OF 300M2/S2...SHEAR 25 M/2....SWEAT ABOVE 400. MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATETHAT THE SQUALL LINE WILL FEATURE LEWP ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ANDPIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...STRONGMOTIONS UNDER THE CONVECTION MAY HAVE NO TROUBLE MIXING WINDS INEXCESS OF 50 KFTS FROM 3 KFT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THEPOTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES IN THE HWO.SNOW...FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...H85 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO-10C ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES. MOIST WEST H925 TO H850 WINDSSHOULD SUPPORT -SHSN ACROSS THE TN BORDER COUNTIES. THIS PACKAGEWILL FEATURE A LITTLE LATE ONSET OF SHSN GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OFFROPA TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG CAA AND DECENT MOISTURE SHOULDSUPPORT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WINDS REMAINS AROUND 30TO 40 DEGREES BACKED FROM PREFERRED DIRECTIONS. USING SLR AROUND 16TO 1...SNOW ACCUMS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE AROUND 1 INCH. THE LIGHTSNOW ACCUMS FOLLOWING HEAVY RAIN SHOULD KEEP THE PAVED SFCS WET.TEMPS FALLING TO THE MID 20S WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD BLACK ICE ANDFROZE SLUSH THURSDAY MORNING...I WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 That line of storms looks like it means bussiness coming across TN. Looks like 10 counties under a tornado warning and several severe thunderstorm warnings also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Nice Don! Severe weather to snow in all under 24 hours. Got to love living in the mountains. Thanks for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Nice Don! Severe weather to snow in all under 24 hours. Got to love living in the mountains. Thanks for posting that. 85, This will be a dozy of a storm for you with your elevation. Winds could be crippling up there....be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 85, This will be a dozy of a storm for you with your elevation. Winds could be crippling up there....be safe! Thanks Don you to. The winds have been howling most of the night. Very strange feeling out this morning. You can cut the air with a knife out there. Looks like the mountains are going to get blasted with these storms. Take cover if need be. It has been a couple years since Asheville has seen any tornadic cells near the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 GSP has issued a special weather statement... ***SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT*** NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 609 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013 ...HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONGER WINDS TO PICK UP ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH 8 AM EST... AT 610 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL RATES AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR WITH THESE SHOWERS. THE RAINFALL MAY BECOME PERSISTENT ENOUGH IN THE SOUTHERLY UPSLOPE AREAS TO CREATE RAPID STREAM RISES IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS THROUGH 8 AM. IN ADDITION...THE SHOWERS MAY MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH DEVELOPING AT TIMES. IF THE SHOWERS CONTINUE AT THESE RATE...AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE MAY BEGIN TO FLOOD BY MID MORNING. KEEP AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS. THE GUSTY WINDS MAY START TO BRING DOWN SOME TREE BRANCHES...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAKLY ROOTED TREES EARLY THIS MORNING. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR FALLING OR FALLEN TREES IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Storms firing ahead of the main line need to be watched. TOR for Chilton Co., AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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