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Severe (tornado + wind) event looming: 01/30-01/31 Wed.-Thursday

Ground Scouring

By Ground Scouring,
in Southeastern States

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

Not necessarily.  Low CAPE but high shear events are often underestimated, yet they have potential for big impacts.

 

Very true and they certainly can but overall in the recent past they have busted more often than not. Of course that doesn't guarantee tomorrow will.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Impressive 850mb winds over western NC, the winds progged for GA and more southern areas for this event don't reach the 80 mark. 90 is even progged for eastern VA at 36 hours.

 

W NC looks to be the best chance for severe tomorrow (as far as NC goes). However, might be too slow considering this is probably a night event for the majority of NC...Straight line wind majority threat for NC....

 

18z NAM:

 

pkrLzYv.png

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

Posted
Posted

I'm definitely going to be paying more attention to this than the usual high shear/low CAPE events that take place around here during the winter.  The Birmingham AFD paints a little more ominous picture than earlier in the forecast period.

 

CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING FOR A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE HIGH WIND EVENT...AND INCREASING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. THE TORNADO CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN RAISED TO MODERATE ON THE SEVERE THREAT LEVEL MAP ON OUR WEB SITE. THE MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES INTO EAST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

 

Remarkable that we don't have the seemingly ever present wedge to save our butts this time either.

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NavarreDon

NavarreDon

Posted
Posted

GSP's afternoon.......another good write up highlighting the potential for this system.

 

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...A CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
A SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING
THE WRN PART OF NC AROUND 18Z AND WILL STEADILY MARCH EASTWARD AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THERE IS
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DEEPEN JUST ENOUGH TO TAP
SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS THAT ARE NOT TOO FAR ALOFT...ESPECIALLY
IF ANY BREAKS DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD COVER. FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE
40-45 MPH RANGE ARE EXPECTED...SO THE ENTIRE AREA OUTSIDE THE MTNS

WAS BUMPED UP TO A WIND ADVISORY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN STORY.

PRECIP AMTS LOOK DECENT BUT THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH

FAST ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR
SURE...BUT THE FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE EXPANDED AT THIS TIME. SHEAR
AND HELICITY WILL BE PHENOMENAL. YOU WILL PROBABLY NOT FIND ANOTHER
FCST HODOGRAPH AROUND HERE WITH MORE LENGTH AND CURVATURE AS THE NAM
INDICATES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BUOYANCY IS THE LIMITING
FACTOR...BUT EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS HAS RAISED CAPE VALUES
INTO THE 100-300 J/KG RANGE WHILE THE NAM TOPS OUT ABOUT DOUBLE
THAT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT BOWING STRUCTURES AND LINE
SEGMENTS THAT COULD PRODUCE SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE AND SMALL BRIEF
TORNADOES. AS USUAL...THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85 WILL
HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT...ALTHO THE ENTIRE REGION IS UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK AS SEEN ON THE DAY2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MTNS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FOOTHILLS
AND UPSTATE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE PIEDMONT IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THE TREND OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO
SLOW IT DOWN...SO THIS COULD SLIP A BIT. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE IN THE EARLY EVENING WITH A SHARP BACK EDGE. STRONG
WIND GUSTS COULD PERSIST WITH BETTER MIXING AS COLD ADVECTION
IMPROVES BEHIND THE FRONT...SO THE WIND ADVISORY WAS KEPT FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVER THE MTNS...PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO
SNOW FROM HIGH TO LOW ELEVATIONS STARTING IN THE LATE EVENING...
ENDING AS ALL SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK. THE POTENTIAL IS SOMETHING
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO ON THE TN BORDER.

 

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Birmingham NWS"

 

 

THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE SLOWING DOWN THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE MAIN 
SQUALL LINE INTO ALABAMA. CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING FOR A FAST 
MOVING SQUALL LINE/HIGH WIND EVENT...AND INCREASING FOR THE 
POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE.

THE TORNADO CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN RAISED TO MODERATE ON THE SEVERE THREAT LEVEL MAP ON OUR WEB SITE.

THE MODELS ARE ALSO TRENDING TOWARDS A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SQUALL LINE AS IT MOVES INTO EAST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

Posted
Posted

Birmingham NWS:

 

DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

 

This is one of the main things that have my attention......it seems like it has been FOREVER since we've had a system enter our area from the west during peak heating.  Dewpoints are already approaching 60.  If there is ANY sun tomorrow, north Georgia better really be prepared.  It hit 72 earlier this afternoon IMBY.

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MichelleH

MichelleH

Posted
Posted

New MSD out:

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0076   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0437 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MS VALLEY      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY       VALID 292237Z - 300100Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT      SUMMARY...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SABINE RIVER TO CNTRL LA   SHOULD EVOLVE INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE   LOWER MS VALLEY. TORNADOES /POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS   WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.      DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF WARM SECTOR SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED   TSTMS ALONG THE SABINE RIVER INTO CNTRL LA SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN   THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FED BY UPSTREAM PW VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES.   AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LOW TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALL FAVORABLY   INCREASE...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP. SOME   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS   OCCURRING...ALTHOUGH APPEARING LIKELY TOO SLOW /BETWEEN 03-06Z/. IT   APPEARS MORE PROBABLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS THAT SUPERCELLS WILL   OCCUR BY THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING   TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.      ..GRAMS/HART.. 01/29/2013         ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
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SharonA

SharonA

Posted
Posted

Oh yeah, if he comes on air with his suspenders showing, then it's on! Love James Spann! And hello to you 'Dega from Cullman, AL! :)

 

And Hello Dega & Cullman, from Florence, AL! 

 

The workplace I'm at has sent out alerts to employees directly and to supervisors to hold meetings to discuss it with employees.  I'm a temporary contractor here, and several people have as come over to make sure I know what might happen and where the building shelters are.  They have this down pat by now.

 

Here I thought I'd miss all the SVR/TOR fun because this temporary relocation gig was supposed to be over with before the real spring fun hit.

 

Thank you for the video and information, gang.

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MichelleH

MichelleH

Posted
Posted

New tornado watch:

 

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 10   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   540 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013      THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF              MUCH OF ARKANSAS          NORTHERN LOUISIANA          MISSOURI BOOTHEEL          EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA          NORTHEAST TEXAS      EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 540   PM UNTIL 100 AM CST.      TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND   GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE   AREAS.      THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF NATCHITOCHES   LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS.  FOR A   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).      REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.      OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 7...WW 9...      DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND   INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM   APPROACHES THE REGION.  VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  BOW ECHOS AND SUPERCELLS SEEM TO BE THE   GREATEST RISK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT   TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.      AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.         ...HART
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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

This is one of the main things that have my attention......it seems like it has been FOREVER since we've had a system enter our area from the west during peak heating.  Dewpoints are already approaching 60.  If there is ANY sun tomorrow, north Georgia better really be prepared.  It hit 72 earlier this afternoon IMBY.

 

Yes, and Greg Fishel on WRAL in Raleigh said tomorrow will be even warmer here than today and that would mean trouble for when the system arrives here.

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