pazzo83 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Its not a big snow, its not a big ice, a pain but the kids aren't excited about this. They want their big snow for their cold and didn't get it. Haha people have been spoiled as of late. I have a feeling the ricocheting from absurdly crazy winters to basically duds (or even practically non-existant like last year) will be commonplace going forward. Abnormal is the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 amazing that there is so little discussion after the insane scrutiny over the last system and even people going crazy receiving just an inch...this is a much more dangerous and potential impacting storm in terms of road conditions. The little event the other day settled everybody down a bit I think, if that one had not happened it would be more crazy in here right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 HRRR forecast at 12Z....so far its handling this event well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Getting a little bit worried about icing for driving to and from work tomorrow. Down to 26.6/14.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I have never, ever seen the NWS in Mt. Holly put up winter weather advisories in Mercer, Philadelphia, Delaware and Newcastle (DE) counties and not have one up in Middlesex County (outside of systems, where the precip just wasn't going to reach that far north). The point-and-click, text and graphical forecasts don't look appreciably different, so I just don't get it. The AFD doesn't address this very unusual situation, either. Would be interested to hear the rationale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 No advisories in parts of NJ or NYC. I think a surprise ZR scenario might be in the making. Wetbulbs < 24 areawide with a 1034mb sfc high in upstate NY. 00Z NAM skew-t's are pretty icy right down to NYC through tomorrow mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 NYC likely starts as snow around 15z, then over to sleet by 18z. This is clearly IP with warming 850's and pretty cold low levels. Then ZR possibly Monday 1pm-3pm. By mid/late afternoon, surface temp is about 32-33 in NYC per the NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 No advisories in parts of NJ or NYC. I think a surprise ZR scenario might be in the making. Wetbulbs < 24 areawide with a 1034mb sfc high in upstate NY. 00Z NAM skew-t's are pretty icy right down to NYC through tomorrow mid afternoon.true - and this radar shows the precip might make it here by morning rush or during it - will make a huge difference in travel conditions if it doeshttp://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html also check out the barometer readings with some still rising ! http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.asus41.OKX.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Rgem shows snow to ice to rain for NYChttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 amazing that there is so little discussion after the insane scrutiny over the last system and even people going crazy receiving just an inch...this is a much more dangerous and potential impacting storm in terms of road conditions. I highly doubt it. Going to be no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I highly doubt it. Going to be no big deal. Icing is not a big deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Icing is not a big deal? Maybe not down by him but it will be for us NW folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 GFS seems to be the warmest model right now. Showed all plain rain at KMMU on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 GFS seems to be the warmest model right now. Showed all plain rain at KMMU on the 18z run. It's an outlier at the moment. All the other models are colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Its not a big snow, its not a big ice, a pain but the kids aren't excited about this. They want their big snow for their cold and didn't get it. but this is more fascinating to follow and watch for the weather enthusiastics...perhaps we need just a snow discussion board because they like to talk about it even in the summer and want it to snow then as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 31 degrees with a dew point of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 22F in east brunswick, nj. There's not a lot of precipitation with it but if the surface cold holds, then even a little bit of icing will cause problems especially considering the cold surfaces, roadways and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Maybe not down by him but it will be for us NW folks. It's still only 19F here...I think we will see some icing problems in the morning especially with how cold the ground has been. 00z NAM soundings looked pretty wintry around here, keeping the surface below freezing through 18z (early afternoon). Mt. Holly doesn't even have us under a WWA and yet they have Mercer and Philadelphia counties under one which I have never seen before; I would also be curious to hear their rationale behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It's still only 19F here...I think we will see some icing problems in the morning especially with how cold the ground has been. 00z NAM soundings looked pretty wintry around here, keeping the surface below freezing through 18z (early afternoon). Mt. Holly doesn't even have us under a WWA and yet they have Mercer and Philadelphia counties under one which I have never seen before; I would also be curious to hear their rationale behind that. I believe this excerpt from Upton's AFD explains what is going on with winter weather advisories (or lack thereof) in metro NYC (including the portion covered by Mt. Holly, since they coordinate): INITIAL THOUGHT WAS LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION BEGINS MOVINGINTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA BY AROUND 15Z WITH INCREASINGISENTROPIC LIFT...SPREADING TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND LITHEN BY 18Z. WITH A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...PRODUCING TEMPERATURESGENERALLY BELOW FREEZING...THE INITIAL P-TYPE SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOWEVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP INCREASINGTHE LOWER LEVEL TEMPS...COULD SEE SLEET MIXING IN FOR A FEWHOURS MIDDAY ALONG THE COAST...THEN BECOMING ALL RAIN BY LATEAFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INCREASE TEMPS A BIT TOO FAST...SO HELD OFFFROM TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN UNTIL AFTER 21Z FOR THE COASTALZONES. BECAUSE OF THIS TRANSITION...AND WITH MINIMAL SNOWACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED...DID NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER WX ADVISORIESFOR THIS AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Maybe not down by him but it will be for us NW folks. You north and west folks are getting hammered this year. What are you up to 70"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 You north and west folks are getting hammered this year. What are you up to 70"? The three reliable CoCoRaHS observers in Sussex County NJ have reported 17-22" of snow this season, thus far. Certainly more than NYC (a bit more than double), but nothing remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 While NYC sits at 31 degrees , the north shores of Nassau and Suffolk counties are between 23- 24 degrees . at the onset as light snow begins to fall , you will not warm the surface right away , with .3 qpf expected . my guess is 2/3 of this is goin to be frozen and there is no Winter Weather Adivosry posted . These places are not North and West of NYC , however they are colder this morning . The cold air at the surface mayb a little hard to scour than the models prog and I thnk the potential for some real travel problems could arise . I think there should be WWA in these areas . IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Temp in western long island has been rising for the past couple of hours at 2:30am it was 20 and now at 6:05am it's up too 25..... If this continues we prob won't have to worry about to much frozen precip!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 You north and west folks are getting hammered this year. What are you up to 70"?who said anything about 70"? I've had at least some snow cover for weeks now, I'm guessing you have none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Temp in western long island has been rising for the past couple of hours at 2:30am it was 20 and now at 6:05am it's up too 25..... If this continues we prob won't have to worry about to much frozen precip!!!!! you work for upton bud? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I find it interesting that JFK is at 29 while bothe lga and cpk are at 32. They were as low as 25 there earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I find it interesting that JFK is at 29 while bothe lga and cpk are at 32. They were as low as 25 there earlier this morning. JFK is more isolated and less urban than those other two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Temp in western long island has been rising for the past couple of hours at 2:30am it was 20 and now at 6:05am it's up too 25..... If this continues we prob won't have to worry about to much frozen precip!!!!
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