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Storm Threat Discussion Monday 1/28/13

Edge Weather

By Edge Weather,
in New York City Metro

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Well it gives TTN an inch and a half or so of snow...

 

I think if this happens it will be a massive sleet fest or even worse maybe a tenth-two tenths FZRA for some people, the soundings are showing maybe -1 to -2C when precip starts and show snow but given the WSW flow I doubt temps won't verify 2-3C warmer in the end.  Last event RDU/GSO in North Carolina most models showed a 3-4 hour period of snow at 48 hours but sure enough the mid-levels continued warming.  I generally never feel comfortable going with any snow at this range on these events unless I see -4C or lower shown from 700-850.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

I think if this happens it will be a massive sleet fest or even worse maybe a tenth-two tenths FZRA for some people, the soundings are showing maybe -1 to -2C when precip starts and show snow but given the WSW flow I doubt temps won't verify 2-3C warmer in the end.  Last event RDU/GSO in North Carolina most models showed a 3-4 hour period of snow at 48 hours but sure enough the mid-levels continued warming.  I generally never feel comfortable going with any snow at this range on these events unless I see -4C or lower shown from 700-850.

 

That's reasonable, and I agree with your thoughts.  Was just mentioning what the raw NAM showed. 

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Snow_Miser

Snow_Miser

Posted
Posted

its too bad he is usually wrong 90 % of the time - example a couple weeks ago predicting 1 -3 inches and we got nothing from the southern system - I'll stick with Upton's forecast right now ..............

 

I disagree. Steve D can have his off forecasts like everyone else who forecasts, but is not a bad meteorologist.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Upton is going with snow changing to rain, snow and sleet.

 

Monday Snow likely before 2pm, then rain, snow, and sleet. High near 37. Light southwest wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

 

Monday Night Rain, snow, and sleet, becoming all rain after 7pm. Low around 36. West wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted

its too bad he is usually wrong 90 % of the time - example a couple weeks ago predicting 1 -3 inches and we got nothing from the southern system - I'll stick with Upton's forecast right now ..............

I was just looking for that forecast and the post that brought it to us late in the game for that system. Was it the clipper? In any event, it was extremely bullish and completely "out there" in the grand scheme of things for that system. I remember thinking how it had to have been made to attract viewership being that there was really no scientific basis for that call at that point.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

NYC is below freezing at hour 27 with some precip around on the Nam. Looks like a nasty day for many people tomorrow.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_027_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer&param=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_027_sim_radar.gif

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

RGEM shows a little snow to Ice to rain for NYC while it stays snow longer up north.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

Also wanted to show that funny shearing/drying effect.  I'm not sure if the models are mistakenly seeing the high as having a shearing influence on the precip shield or not.  The concern you'd have to have with this event is that the high acts more as an overrunning mechanism and we see more or earlier QPF.  Right now I'd think 15-19Z some sort of frozen precip but not a whole lot.

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GD0815

GD0815

Posted
Posted

NAM still not spitting out a whole lot of QPF, but it does have a stronger signal now from 12-15Z over ERN PA of a band of precip...this comes down to if more QPF develops ahead of the disturbance than models show which as we know in overrunning events is always a possibility.

i think this is the only way we see any snow in the city....

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

Upton forecast discussion:

 

 

AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILLAPPROACH FROM THE SW WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWLEVEL WAA. ONE MORE FRIGID NIGHT ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITHTHE HIGH TRAVERSING OVERHEAD...THEREFORE WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AFACTOR. MOS GUIDANCE CLOSE WITH LOWS IN LOWER TO MID 20S IN THENYC METRO AREA...TEENS ELSEWHERE.LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM W TO E MONDAYMORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUINGTHROUGH THE EVE. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATEAREA. SINCE GFS TYPICALLY ERODES THE COLD AIR IN THE BOUNDARYLAYER TOO SOON...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE EC AND NAM THERMALPROFILES. THIS RESULTS IN SNOW AT ALL LOCATIONS AT THE ONSET...BUTINCREASING WAA WILL CHANGE THE PRECIP OVER FROM SW TO NE DURINGTHE AFTERNOON AND EVE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATEACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT BEFORE A MIX OFSNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OCCURS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ATHIRD PERIOD ADVISORY WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST...WHICH WASCOLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. HOWEVER...DO ANTICIPATE ONEBEING ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.ALTHOUGH P-TYPE IS ONE CHALLENGING PART OF THE FORECAST...THEQUESTION OF WHETHER THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO LIFT THROUGH THEAREA REMAINS. THE PARENT LOW PRES SYSTEM ORIGINATES IN THE UPPERMISSISSIPPI VALLEY...W OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH TYPICALLY ISNOT ABLE TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH WITHOUT A STRONG SLY FLOW TOPUSH IT. HOWEVER...IT MAY LIFT THROUGH AS THE WAVE TRACKS THROUGHTHE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IT COULD ALSO STALL RIGHT OVER THE AREA. BOTTOMLINE...THERE`S SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR N THE FRONT IS ABLETO GET WHICH WILL AFFECT HIGHS ON TUE.WE LOSE ICE IN THE CLOUD MON NIGHT...AND SUBSEQUENTLY WILL LOSEANY CHANCE FOR SNOW. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE DEEP ENOUGH FORRAIN/FZRA/SLEET. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OCCURS BYTUE MORNING..WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHTAS THE WAVE OF LOW PRES DEPARTS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTUREREMAINS.HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AND EXPECT LOWS MON NIGHTTO OCCUR EARLY WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. HIGHBUST POTENTIAL TUE WITH UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL LOCATION.
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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

this forecast reminds me of Christmas day 1962...it started to snow late morning very lightly and continued for about five hours before changing to very light sleet and glaze for an hour before it became all drizzle with temps rising...we ended up with nearly a half inch of snow with some glaze...The next morning it was in the 40's and all the snow was gone...that winter snowfalls were hard to come by despite it being one of the coldest on record...When a storm tracks to the west, hope for the best...

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KEITH L.I

KEITH L.I

Posted
Posted

this forecast reminds me of Christmas day 1962...it started to snow late morning very lightly and continued for about five hours before changing to very light sleet and glaze for an hour before it became all drizzle with temps rising...we ended up with nearly a half inch of snow with some glaze...The next morning it was in the 40's and all the snow was gone...that winter snowfalls were hard to come by despite it being one of the coldest on record...When a storm tracks to the west, hope for the best...

One of my earliest weather memories.I was 4 and remember walking down 13th ave in Brooklyn with my cousin with the snow falling on Christmas day

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

amazing that there is so little discussion after the insane scrutiny over the last system and even people going crazy receiving just an inch...this is a much more dangerous and potential impacting storm in terms of road conditions.

Its not a big snow, its not a big ice, a pain but the kids aren't excited about this.  They want their big snow for their cold and didn't get it.

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