Storm Threat Discussion Monday 1/28/13

[Edge Weather]

It looks as if a weak storm system may bring us some light snow on Monday morning which could accumulate to a dusting to an inch, followed by light sleet and freezing rain or freezing drizzle in the afternoon and into the night. Could cause a few travel difficulties, especially on Monday afternoon and night for the evening rush as it only takes a little freezing rain to cause travel difficulties. The evening rush on Monday could be a bit icy, especially in northern and western locations.

[Edge Weather]

89
FXUS61 KPHI 261416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 AM EST SAT JAN 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY BEFORE
RECEDING OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST SHOULD PASS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN START BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR TODAY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DID REMOVE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND KEPT THE
FLURRIES IN ACROSS THE NORTH. SCALED BACK THE CLOUD COVER A BIT
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AS THE DOWNSLOPING HELPS TO DRY THE MID-
LEVEL OUT A BIT. INVERSION STILL HOLDS STEADY AT AROUND 8-9KFT
THIS MORNING AND REALLY DOES NOT SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING UP ANY
TIME SOON. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO COMPLETELY RID
OUR WESTERN ZONES OF ALL THE CLOUDS TODAY.

NEAR/SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK SHORT WAVE...NOW BACK OVER
MICHIGAN...WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE WEAK...AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WHILE
THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOST PLACES
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HIGHS FOR TODAY WERE BASED MAINLY ON THE MOST
BLEND...WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS THE GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO GUST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 30 KNOTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION. IN AREAS WITH SUNSHINE...THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER
SHOULD INCREASE TO CAPTURE SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM. THE RESULT WILL BE
WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH OVER A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS SHOULD TEND
TO BACK OFF TOWARD EVENING...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY REMAINING DIURNAL CLOUDINESS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
BACKS AND WEAKENS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT IN THE
EVENING TO STAVE OFF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER...
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE GRADIENT DROPS OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW PROTECTED
AREAS TO BECOME CALM.

THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...SLACKENING WINDS AND WHATS LEFT OF
THE SNOW COVER COULD SET THE STAGE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN PLACES LIKE THE PINE BARRENS. THIS COULD
MAKE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TONIGHT AN ADVENTURE. FOR URBAN
AREAS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR LOWS...AS
MOS USUALLY DOES WELL IN THESE SITUATIONS.

FOR PROTECTED LOCATIONS...LOWS WERE BASED MORE ON THE DEW POINTS...
AND THIS MAY ULTIMATELY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. WHILE THESE LOCATIONS
COULD SEE LOCALLY POOLING OF MOISTURE BECAUSE OF RADIATIONAL...FOG
WAS NOT ADDED TO THE FORECAST. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE AIRMASS
IS INDEED TOO DRY TO SUPPORT EVENT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB ON THE WEST
COAST FROM WHICH THE NEXT STRONG SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING. WE WERE
ALSO HAPPY TO SEE THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ESCAPED THE PARALLEL
UNIVERSE THEY WERE IN LAST NIGHT AND HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR MORE
TYPICAL TIMING BIAS CAMPS. CONFIDENCE FOR AN ANNOYING AND
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT IS INCREASING FOR
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS ALSO INCREASING AS THE
SHORT THAW OF THE COLD PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RUN ITS COURSE.

AS FOR THE PARTICULARS, SUNDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE THE MORE PLEASANT OF
THE WEEKEND DAY WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AND LESS
WIND THAN TODAY. SUNDAY MAY BE THE FIRST DAY SINCE THE 21ST THAT
PHILADELPHIA (BARELY) EXCEEDS THE FREEZING MARK. THE MODEL THERMAL
TREND HAS BEEN EDGING UPWARD, SO WE DID NOT LOWER STAT GUIDANCE.
SOME CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD BE ARRIVING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WHICH BRINGS US TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND STILL RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE
OF MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AS CLOUDINESS SHOULD ARRIVE. WE DID TRY TO
SHOW AN EARLIER MINIMUM IN THE GRIDS, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
TOWARD MORNING.

AS FAR AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FIRST FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING, IT LOOKS LOW TO MODERATE. THE EXITING ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE H2.5 JET WILL NOT BE AS MUCH HELP AS THE DAY CONTINUES. THE
RIDGE AXIS IS RATHER MODEST AND THERE ARE SHORT WAVES FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH EVEN IF RIDGING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE. THE LOW LEVEL
THETA E CONVERGENCE IS MENZA MENZ AND THE ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD
BE BEST DESCRIBED AS GENTLE. THE BEST QVEC CONVERGENCE IS NORTH
WHILE THE MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING IS ACTUALLY NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE
MID LEVEL MOIST TRANSPORT GETS TO AROUND 100 KTSG/KG WHICH AGAIN
IS ALRIGHT. SO BASICALLY THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
PAINTING A RELATIVELY LIGHT (A QUARTER INCH OR LESS WATER
EQUIVALENT) PRECIPITATION EVENT.

THAT APPEARS TO BE THE EASY PART. THE TOUGHER PART IS THE TIMING AND
THE THERMAL FIELDS AND PTYPES. THE MODELS FOR NOW ARE PRETTY
CLOSE WITH A MORNING START AND BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY FLAT
RIDGE AXIS, WE WILL NOT BEG TO DIFFER. ALSO THERE IS NOT MUCH
FORCING BEING DISPLAYED BEYOND MONDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST
PHASE. AS FOR THE THERMAL FIELDS, THE GFS AND THE WRF-NMMB ARE NOT
THAT DIFFERENT AND THE GFS HAS EDGED SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM LAST
NIGHT. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE COLDEST. THE TOP DOWN PROCEDURE GAVE
US A BOATLOAD OF SLEET AGAIN WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING AS BOTH THE
GFS AND WRF-NMMB ARE WARMING OUR AIR MASS AROUND 800MB AND HANGING
TOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR AT 925MB. THE FLAVOR OF THIS WINTER HAS
BEEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE SLEET, SO WHILE WE
DID NOT REMOVE IT, WE DID ADD MORE SNOW AND RAIN PTYPES IN WITH IT
VS IT BEING A STAND ALONE PTYPE. REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL OF
CHOICE, THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO RAISE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE PROBLEM REMAINS AT THE SNOW COVERED SURFACE. SO AN
EVOLUTION FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN SEEMS A LIKELY
OUTCOME FROM AROUND THE FALL LINE NORTHWESTWARD. THIS IS PARTLY
BECAUSE OF THE THE THERMAL FIELDS BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
GREATER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE. FOR NOW SNOW ACCUMS WERE
STARTED AT LESS THAN AN INCH WITH ICE ACCUMS UP TO AROUND A TENTH
OF AN INCH INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALL THE RECENT COLD WEATHER IS GOING
TO MAKE IT EASY TO "ICE". WE WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE HWO.

ON MONDAY NIGHT THE SNOW AND SLEET CHANCE BECOME PROBLEMATICAL EVEN
IF THE EC SOLUTION IS CORRECT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING
ANY ICE IN THE CLOUD LAYER. AT THIS POINT IT WOULD BE EITHER PLAIN
RAIN OR DRIZZLE OR THEIR FREEZING COUNTERPARTS. THE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ALL ARE THERMALLY
WARMING THE SURFACE. WE TOOK THE MOST CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE APPROACH
AT RAISING TEMPS AND EVEN THESE MAY VERIFY TOO AGGRESSIVE.

WE ARE EXPECTING TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS TWO FOLD SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES AND ALSO
RELATIVELY LOWER THE POPS. STILL NOT SURE ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THE
FRONT WILL CLEAR, SO MAX TEMPS WERE NOT AS HIGH AS MOST THRUT OUR
CWA.

THE POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY BASED ON BETTER MODEL
TIMING. THIS PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY AS PCPN WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION THE WIND
FIELD ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG (LLJ TO ABOUT 65 KNOTS) AND
THE GFS IS STILL HINTING AT THUNDER POSSIBILITIES. A SLOWER
FRONTAL TIMING BASED ON FCST 850MB TEMPS WOULD NOT MAKE REACHING
THE 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN IMPOSSIBLE.

FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WE DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST TOO MUCH. WE
NUDGED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BASED ON A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER CFP. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
MIGHT GIVE US SHOWER CHANCES AND AS WE GET COLDER AGAIN, A HIGHER
CHANCE THAT THEY WOULD BE SNOW VS RAIN AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. VFR CEILINGS WITH BASES NEAR
5000 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 1600 UTC...BUT THE CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FROM KPHL SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 21 KNOTS BETWEEN 1600 AND 2100
UTC. THE GUSTS SHOULD ABATE WITH SUNSET.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 8 KNOTS
IN THE EVENING...AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL GO CALM. FOR KPHL...WINDS
SHOULD VEER TO THE NORTH BY LATE EVENING...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS
THAN 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BE
THE START OF AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR POSSIBLY IFR. SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
NORTH.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY MVFR, LOCALLY IFR IN SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS. CHANCE OF LLWS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SHOWERS, STRONG SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES TODAY.

THUS FAR...THE GRADIENT FLOW HAS YET TO RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW EAST OF KORF. THE GRADIENT FLOW IS PICKING UP OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND SURFACE LOW GETS FURTHER EAST...THE
GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.

THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ON THE WATERS
AFTER 1800 UTC...SO THE STARTING TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE
APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE BEST MIXING
POTENTIAL OCCURS CLOSE TO 0000 UTC. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WINDS AT
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION GET CLOSE TO 35 KNOTS AT ANY POINT...AND
THE GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK AS THOUGH IT SUPPORT GALE GUSTS. THE GUST
POTENTIAL WAS THEREFORE CAPPED AT 30 KNOTS FOR MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

DURING THE BEST GRADIENT...THE COMBINATION OF WIND SPEEDS AND COLD
AIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE OCEAN SUPPORT AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR
FREEZING SPRAY. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AT THE OUTER EDGE OF THE
OCEAN ZONES...WHERE THE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE GREATEST. THE
THERE CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING...BUT AS WIND SPEEDS DROP LATER
TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING SPRAY DIMINISHES ACCORDINGLY.

THE GRADIENT LOOKS TO SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT
0600 UTC SUNDAY OR SO. THE BEST GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN THE
EVENING...AS INDICATED BY THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE
OCEAN. AS THE GRADIENT BACKS OFF...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS COULD
DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BEFORE 600 AM SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AS THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GRADIENT REACHES THE WATERS AFTER 0600 UTC...
TIMING IS NOT THAT CERTAIN...SO THE END TIME OF THE HEADLINE WILL
NOT BE CHANGED EARLY THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL START WITH SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. WE ARE MODERATELY CONFIDENT THAT THE CURRENT
ADVISORY WILL NOT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED INTO THIS DAY. THEN WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THE SOUTHWEST GRADIENT PRECEDING
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE TIGHTENING AND THERE WILL ALSO BE A
SOUTHERLY SWELL DEVELOPING. NORMALLY GUIDANCE IS TOO BULLISH ON
MIXING THE STRONG WINDS DOWNWARD IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE SWELLS
COLLATERALLY ARE TOO HIGH IN SCENARIOS LIKE THIS. SO WHILE WE
BRING SMALL CRAFT GUSTS TO THE OCEAN WATERS ON TUESDAY DAY,
CONFIDENCE ABOUT IT OCCURRING IS NOT STRONG. WE HAVE GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY ON THE
OCEAN MORE SO WITH THE SWELLS THAN THE WINDS. ON DELAWARE BAY WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT FOR NOW MOST OF THE GUSTS ARE OUTLOOKED TO FALL
SHORT OF CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...HAYES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/HAYES

[Snow_Miser]

I was wondering when a thread on this was going to be started.

 

It definitely looks like there could be some icing potential with this.

[ag3]

srefs like snow over ice for NYC and north. They like ice to the west in PA.

[Snow_Miser]

srefs like snow over ice for NYC and north. They like ice to the west in PA.

 

Yep, that's definitely interesting.

 

[SnowGoose69]

This is pretty similar to 12/27/84 but this time the track is more north, I would expect maybe a bit of precip for NYC and LI but it seems the best WAA is going to be north...I could see some places in NE NY/NE getting 4-8 inches of snow out of this.

[Guest Pamela]

This is pretty similar to 12/27/84 but this time the track is more north, I would expect maybe a bit of precip for NYC and LI but it seems the best WAA is going to be north...I could see some places in NE NY/NE getting 4-8 inches of snow out of this.

 

Westbury, Long Island had  6.8" from that storm; east of the Sagitikos State Parkway, snowfall dropped off rapidly; less than 48 hours later it was near 70 F.

[NEG NAO]

Timing is going to be the big issue in this event - if precip - snow ? sneaks in before or during the morning rush hour its going to be a big mess because its going to result in the same sort of travel difficulties as last night - inland areas will probably have some form of frozen precip most of monday and monday evening - the coast SHOULD transition to liquid by the afternoon hours - but that could also change if the low level cold air which as mentioned by Upton in their AFD will be slow to leave because of the cold water temps this time of year...

[SnowGoose69]

Wesstbury, Long Island had  6.8" from that storm; less than 48 hours later it was near 70 F.

CIPS has had it popping up on and off in the analog lists the last few days, it reminded me of the event almost instantly when I saw it shown 5-7 days back but that ridge is ever so slightly further north this time and the arctic high also more south and weaker so I think we can shift the event about 100 miles north or more.

[SnowGoose69]

The NMM which has been on/off this winter has insisted on this event having more precip for the NYC metro consistently...this is probably a raging sleet storm here or FZRA....remember, these events have a WSW surface flow so sometimes the coast is slower to warm up than we do on a SE wind..

 

[Snow_Miser]

The 12z RGEM would have a wintry mess around these parts:

 

[NEG NAO]

what is interesting is that Chicago after having gone through a snow drought the last year or so has issued winter storm watches for ice accumulation on Sunday - will be interesting to see what happens around these parts for monday ...........

http://kamala.cod.edu/il/latest.wwus43.KLOT.html

[PB GFI]

Talk about a roller coaster. , after ths system the GFS wants to take us into the mid 50s mid week and then mayb lay some snow cover back down in time for the Super Bowl.

[NEG NAO]

Talk about a roller coaster. , after ths system the GFS wants to take us into the mid 50s mid week and then mayb lay some snow cover back down in time for the Super Bowl.

First half of February is loaded with potential the most since January 2011 - we are overdue...............BUT will the persistence in the pattern cold/dry then warm/wet continue thats the question to be answered....

[TWCCraig]

Talk about a roller coaster. , after ths system the GFS wants to take us into the mid 50s mid week and then mayb lay some snow cover back down in time for the Super Bowl.

 

Yeah, after the 1/31 storm, small clipper system comes down and gives us a little snow, also brings us back into the freezer.

[PB GFI]

First half of February is loaded with potential the most since January 2011 - we are overdue...............

I've been lovin the MJO move and I thnk it gets to 1 mayb 2. And those r cold and wet my only caution After is there's been a reversal at 10 mb , so I thnk once to feb 15 , what you got is what u get .

But yeh IF the NAO can go neg , I will b sold fully

[PB GFI]

Yeah, after the 1/31 storm, small clipper system comes down and gives us a little snow, also brings us back into the freezer.

Yeh not as cold. This was 7 days , that looks like 5 max ? Prob too early to tell. , great PAC signals but without a neg NAO , the trough kicks east. Let's see what's up w mon , think the lower hudson valley could b a skating rink mon. Mon nite

[SnowGoose69]

First half of February is loaded with potential the most since January 2011 - we are overdue...............BUT will the persistence in the pattern cold/dry then warm/wet continue thats the question to be answered....

 

The 12Z GFS is again screaming Miller B clipper redevelopment a couple of times in the Day 7-12 range...the orientation of the trough being broader and extending more back west into the Plains this time definitely gives more potential to this idea actually occurring.

[NEG NAO]

I've been lovin the MJO move and I thnk it gets to 1 mayb 2. And those r cold and wet my only caution After is there's been a reversal at 10 mb , so I thnk once to feb 15 , what you got is what u get .

But yeh IF the NAO can go neg , I will b sold fully

timing - its all in the timing - just like with just about everything in life - thats been the problem this season - indicies not working together and some of the players in the wrong places at the right time..............

[rcad1]

Thinking mon is going to be mainly rain on long island will prob start as snow/sleet and then change to rain high temps are in the upper 30's.. This will prob be a n&w event..

[MJO812]

18z RGEM has some snow for our area.

[MJO812]

Upton for my area

 

Monday : A chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet between noon and 3pm, then rain and snow likely after 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Light south wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[Metsfan]

The 12Z GFS is again screaming Miller B clipper redevelopment a couple of times in the Day 7-12 range...the orientation of the trough being broader and extending more back west into the Plains this time definitely gives more potential to this idea actually occurring.

18Z GFS develops a weak low in response to the negative tilted trough hitting the coast at hour 150.

[SnowGoose69]

18z RGEM has some snow for our area.

 

We'll be cold enough for a decent period of frozen precip due to pretty massive wet bulb room Monday AM, even 11am most guidance shows us 35/15 32/15 or so, its just right now again the global models seem dry and even the higher RES ones want to show the precip crapping out as it crosses PA into NJ with most of it over upstate NY.

[Allsnow]

Nam is pretty wet for Monday morning. A lot of it frozen. To bad it's the nam

[Allsnow]

Nam has a thump of snow it seems

[Guest Pamela]

Nam is pretty wet for Monday morning. A lot of it frozen. To bad it's the nam

 

Yep...but the NAM inside 48 is a lot better than the NAM outside it...

[Allsnow]

Yep...but the NAM inside 48 is a lot better than the NAM outside it...

Agree.

[Snow_Miser]

The 00z NAM has snow to ice from KTTN on northward, according to the E Wall preciptiation type graphics:

 

 

Hour 39 above.

 

 

Hour 42 above.

[SnowGoose69]

Nam is pretty wet for Monday morning. A lot of it frozen. To bad it's the nam

 

Ha...well, last event the NAM blew the GFS away on QPF inside 60 hours or so overall on the southern overrunning wave.  The only question would be is the NAM maybe too far south, the NAM does have a bias on SW flow systems of sometimes being too far south but thats usually beyond 48 hours.  When it comes to systems where most of the precip is generated via overrunning the NAM QPF can be more accurate than the GFS because there are no real explosive dynamics to cause the NAM to have its usual wet bias it gets with big systems.