Disco/Nowcast/Observations for SWFE on Monday/Tuesday Snow to ice

[Damage In Tolland]

Tomorrow could be a decent little event. Models are all juicing up as we get closer. I think here in CT it could be an icy mess during the afternoon... cold surfaces should promote extra accretion I think.

What time you think we start snowing? Before or after lunchtime?

[CT Rain]

How far south in CT do you see the freezing rain sticking around for more than a little while? Do you think Fairfield County/I 95 is going to have issues tomorrow afternoon or should we warm up enough to be plain rain?

 

Thanks

 

-skisheep

 

I could see freezing rain and sleet through 00z in HVN. 

[CT Rain]

What time you think we start snowing? Before or after lunchtime?

 

Just started working on the forecast.

[SR Airglow]

I could see freezing rain and sleet through 00z in HVN. 

Yikes, sounds like an ugly commute tomorrow night

 

Thanks again!

 

-skisheep

[Tropopause_Fold]

One way you know it'll be tough to dislodge this air - still strong low level W/NW flow right now.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hmmm...GYX thinking 1-2" for CNE...not bullish at all and they don't even have a snow map out.

That seems about right to me

[CT Rain]

Yikes, sounds like an ugly commute tomorrow night

 

Thanks again!

 

-skisheep

 

I actually take that back... I think HVN may tickle above 32 pretty quickly once the evaporative cooling ends.

 

GFS/NAM keep winds out of the south all day Monday throughout the state. An odd freezing rain direction lol. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

One way you know it'll be tough to dislodge this air - still strong low level W/NW flow right now.

. Blizz? Blizz is that you?

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah you aren't gonna warm an arctic air mass like this. Tomorrow is one of those days where it stays in upper 20's all the way to coast. Nasty looking

[Baroclinic Zone]

Thanks for the thoughts Phil/Ryan. Really have not paid much attention to this event.

[dendrite]

Hmmm...GYX thinking 1-2" for CNE...not bullish at all and they don't even have a snow map out.

I'd probably lean 2-3" right now despite the paltry GFS...nothing wrong with a 1-2" call at this point though.

[powderfreak]

BTV going with 2-4" total and that sounds about right...

 

Monday: Partly sunny in the morning...then cloudy with snow likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the lower 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Monday Night: Snow until midnight...then snow likely with a chance of freezing drizzle after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 20. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

[CT Rain]

Yeah you aren't gonna warm an arctic air mass like this. Tomorrow is one of those days where it stays in upper 20's all the way to coast. Nasty looking

 

I don't know... tough to keep U20s to the coast with a southerly wind.

[Brian5671]

I actually take that back... I think HVN may tickle above 32 pretty quickly once the evaporative cooling ends.

 

GFS/NAM keep winds out of the south all day Monday throughout the state. An odd freezing rain direction lol. 

upton didnt even bother with an advisory for the immediate coast, so I think you are right...we'll get to 33 in no time

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't know... tough to keep U20s to the coast with a southerly wind.

But will it actually be south? I could see a tickle out of the NE

[dendrite]

But will it actually be south? I could see a tickle out of the NE

Tomorrow?

[powderfreak]

Hmmm...GYX thinking 1-2" for CNE...not bullish at all and they don't even have a snow map out.

 

Why do you want a snow map for this?  lol.  This is CNE/NNE you are talking about with 1-4" snow amounts.  Not really worthy of a snow map, IMO.  You get caught under a couple good snow showers and you can pick that up.  Though maybe this winter its noteworthy...

 

Anyway, I've noticed that BTV and GYX won't publicly put out a snow map unless there's a headline associated with it... and this is definitely not a 4"< advisory event.

[CT Rain]

But will it actually be south? I could see a tickle out of the NE

 

 

Tomorrow?

 

LOL highs to our south make a tickle out of the NE tough to do!

[Damage In Tolland]

Tomorrow?

The cold tuckle?

[ineedsnow]

models underestimating totals big time out towards chicago could that translate here? 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lot&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

[dendrite]

The cold tuckle?

That's Tuesday...not tomorrow.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The cold tuckle?

That's Tuesday...not tomorrow.

Yeah winds don't come around until like midnight or so.

It's an interesting battle along the south coast. Climo says go warmer with S flow...but that S flow is also still coming from a departing arctic high and the antecedent air mass is very cold.

[Damage In Tolland]

I think I'd extend the 1-2 sw of HFD on this

 

[CT Rain]

That's Tuesday...not tomorrow.

 

Some people should just look at a model sometimes. It's amazing what they may see!

[CT Rain]

I think I'd extend the 1-2 sw of HFD on this

 

 

I'm thinking about only going C-1" then sleet/ZR

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm thinking about only going C-1" then sleet/ZR

Even in N Ct? 1-2 should suffice if I were you

[CT Rain]

Even in N Ct? 1-2 should suffice if I were you

 

Maybe on the fence. Snow really isn't an issue with this thing it's the ice I'm concerned about. May not even put out an accumulation map. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Maybe on the fence. Snow really isn't an issue with this thing it's the ice I'm concerned about. May not even put out an accumulation map. 

Put down 1-2 with ice on top and temps locked in mid-upper 20's from WBY north..it's a disaster tmrw nite for commute. I can see major, major problems on the rds 

[Cold Miser]

Put down 1-2 with ice on top and temps locked in mid-upper 20's from WBY north..it's a disaster tmrw nite for commute. I can see major, major problems on the rds 

Holy needling, batman.

[dendrite]

GFS is finally jumping on board for CNE.