Disco/Nowcast/Observations for SWFE on Monday/Tuesday Snow to ice

[dryslot]

It'll be nice to pad the numbers, enjoy it.   Resorts are going to take some abuse this week.

 

 

Those areas are where its going to really hurt

[TalcottWx]

Awful winter

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It's as quiet as you'll ever see this place.  Not 1 person.

 

People are going to puke when you say it but if we can make it through the next 10 or so days...maybe we get lucky during the 10 days and pick some additional snows up...but outside of 10-12 hopefully it really dos start to get better as the pattern shifts.

[weatherMA]

Well I liked my chances at 2-4" (at Plymouth) until I saw the gfs with <1". EC was on board with NAM/SREFs though. So I still like my chances. Will be nice to have during the first day of classes.

[N. OF PIKE]

mon nite deal is looking less and less snowier on guidance except for perhaps the nam still showing a cple inches. 

 

euro brings 0c and above 850 temps into sne quicker than last nite's guidance, that's for sure.

[N. OF PIKE]

It's as quiet as you'll ever see this place.  Not 1 person.

 

People are going to puke when you say it but if we can make it through the next 10 or so days...maybe we get lucky during the 10 days and pick some additional snows up...but outside of 10-12 hopefully it really dos start to get better as the pattern shifts.

 while it is true , (the puking, and the idea of "maybe" getting lucky after day 10),  the maybe's have not been going our way for a while

[Damage In Tolland]

Monday is a solid 1-2 inch deal Pike south and 2-4 north..then ice. then eyes shutting till Wed nite when front tears thru

[Damage In Tolland]

We don't toss

[powderfreak]

TK text me his NECN snowfall map this morning... I outta tell him its a wishcast since he's going to be up here skiing on Tuesday

 

Anyway, looks good for at least 2-4" to pad the seasonal totals.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1" here

[mattb65]

SREFs tightly clustered at 2-3" for BOS - I think that'll depend on how quickly the sleet taint builds in. I didn't look at the Euro but saw the GFS was paltry on QPF.  Hopefully the NAM/SREFs aren't up to their normal suck-fest when they actually forecast snow

[tamarack]

The map PF posted has 2" for MBY.  We've had 6-7 "events" this month with forecasts ranging from 1-2" to 2-4".  Results have varied from zilch to 0.5" and the whole bunch totals 1.5".  (The Jan 16 forecast for 3-5" did hit the X-ring, however, with 4.0".)  Color me unenthused.

 

06z gfs has reduced qpf in the torch, at least, to under 1" for most places up here.

[Tropopause_Fold]

this event looks decent. and wave on the boundary holds in the low level cold most of monday night and tuesday as flow actually goes back to the NNE. one day torch wed. 

[dendrite]

this event looks decent. and wave on the boundary holds in the low level cold most of monday night and tuesday as flow actually goes back to the NNE. one day torch wed. 

It will probably get registered as 2 though since we will probably have a scorching early high at midnight for Thursday.

[CT Rain]

this event looks decent. and wave on the boundary holds in the low level cold most of monday night and tuesday as flow actually goes back to the NNE. one day torch wed. 

Tuesday is an easy under-cut guidance day. MEX MOS had like 49 at BDL on Tuesday yesterday. 

[CT Rain]

The 12z NAM is pretty warm at 850mb. Looks like it may be mainly sleet/freezing rain here in CT if the NAM is right.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just remember this is a bona fide arctic air mass we have to move out. These things are notorious for hanging on with tenacity and never give up as easily as modeling might lead you to believe. This isn't that Sally azz polar air we had earlier this season. I could see snow over performing by an inch or so and the ice as well. Just call in sick Wednesday and when you walk out the door Thursday its like nothing ever happened

[dryslot]

Just remember this is a bona fide arctic air mass we have to move out. These things are notorious for hanging on with tenacity and never give up as easily as modeling might lead you to believe. This isn't that Sally azz polar air we had earlier this season. I could see snow over performing by an inch or so and the ice as well. Just call in sick Wednesday and when you walk out the door Thursday its like nothing ever happened

 

Until you open your eyes and see yourself surrounded by brown grass

[Damage In Tolland]

Until you open your eyes and see yourself surrounded by brown grass

Man you're lost for the season. No coming back for you

[powderfreak]

 

BTV WRF QPF for the event...

 

[dryslot]

Man you're lost for the season. No coming back for you

 

It is what it is kev, There is no way to spin this into anything good, Feb is the last hope for this winter and it looks to me like we continue with what we have been seeing

[dendrite]

Feeling good about 2-4" here. Then we hope for low clouds all day Wed to limit the melting.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Local snowcover is going bye,bye with temp's of 46F on tuesday and 54F on wednesday, especially when coupled with potentially heavy rains. At least lake ice will survive, especially since it's already 8-12" thick around here.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The 12z NAM is pretty warm at 850mb. Looks like it may be mainly sleet/freezing rain here in CT if the NAM is right.

Yeah it's a tricky set up with the warming coming in from the w and SW.

[Damage In Tolland]

Local snowcover is going bye,bye with temp's of 46F on tuesday and 54F on wednesday, especially when coupled with potentially heavy rains. At least lake ice will survive, especially since it's already 8-12" thick around here.

Its not going to be in the 40's on Tuesday. Undercut all numbers and forecasts for Tuesday. Front doesn't make it thru till Late tues nite or early am Wed. Wed will roast

[ORH_wxman]

Its not going to be in the 40's on Tuesday. Undercut all numbers and forecasts for Tuesday. Front doesn't make it thru till Late tues nite or early am Wed. Wed will roast

 

 

It'll be close...there's a front that tries to come NE but its battling light N flow while there is more SW flow the further SW you get. Could be the type of day where NYC and LL get to 48F while parts of NE MA or even as far SW as your area is stuck in the upper 30s. But could be a temp bust day in either direction.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Local snowcover is going bye,bye with temp's of 46F on tuesday and 54F on wednesday, especially when coupled with potentially heavy rains. At least lake ice will survive, especially since it's already 8-12" thick around here.

The lake ice will be perfect after a little rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

It'll be close...there's a front that tries to come NE but its battling light N flow while there is more SW flow the further SW you get. Could be the type of day where NYC and LL get to 48F while parts of NE MA or even as far SW as your area is stuck in the upper 30s. But could be a temp bust day in either direction.

Yeah i think maybe WBY northeast it stays in the 30's Tuesday..after that first pulse works thru we get some sneaky NNE drain that will keep us chilly till the chinook on Wednesday

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah the one good part about the brevity of the torch is the lake ice will be spared from much damage. Then it will become even thicker with the cold coming up for early February. So at least the ice fishers, snow mobilers and pond skaters will not hurt too much.

 

Pretty amazing how thick the ice got this past week.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Over 8" on most ponds in W MA. I saw fishing shacks on Barton Cove (Turners Falls) on the CT River yesterday.