Disco/Nowcast/Observations for SWFE on Monday/Tuesday Snow to ice

[Damage In Tolland]

I think this years march surprises in a wintry way.

Based upon?

[Damage In Tolland]

It goes in cycles Kevin. It doesn't mean it is gone forever. It just doesn't flip a switch and work like that.

We are in uncharted waters regarding the climate. Agreed?

[ORH_wxman]

It goes in cycles Kevin. It doesn't mean it is gone forever. It just doesn't flip a switch and work like that.

 

 

Lol...trying to reason with him is a lost cause.

[CoastalWx]

We are in uncharted waters regarding the climate. Agreed?

 

So that somehow means December is snowier and March is Spring? it simpyl doesn't work like that. The are better reasons like decadal cycles that explain snowy Decembers and Morches. We've had Morches more common prior to the mid 50s.

[weathafella]

Based upon?

Law of averages which is a poor indicator but probably no worse than real long range tools that far out. Also, MJO will by early march be cycling back in our favor IMHO.

The climate hasn't changed so abruptly that march has suddenly become April.

[SnowMan]

DanstormTip, Gibbs, Ryan to a lesser degree, and the non mets can chime in if they choose

Just so I understand...those you listed don't consider March to be a winter month...please confirm...

[Damage In Tolland]

Law of averages which is a poor indicator but probably no worse than real long range tools that far out. Also, MJO will by early march be cycling back in our favor IMHO.

The climate hasn't changed so abruptly that march has suddenly become April.

Imo it has and I am against the idea that the climate will warm so that we totally lose winter in the future. I just think the back end of our winters will not be like they used to, hope I'm wrong.

Anyway lets enjoy today, get thru Wed and hope the last 3 weeks produce

[weatherwiz]

How quickly will it take the air to saturate, bufkit soundings do show the atmosphere should be moist enough for precipitation by about 18-19z or so but the atmosphere is incredibly dry.

[Rocket]

How and when does this event end in MetroWest? The morning mets seem to disagree. Does this end Mon pm or Tues am, with ice or snow? Radar is showing quite a bit of color in the Berkshires. Is any of it making it to the ground?

[CoastalWx]

It's possible the main "thrust" of this for SNE is only 4-5 hrs long as the dryslot will move in quick. After that it's lingering light snow and/or FZDZ.

 

Also, that area of heavier echoes in SW NY state may clip CT in the form of a mix late this aftn too.

 

The weenie bands of lighter snows looks to hang out by CNE near Dendrite and points north overnight.

 

Also, as the temps cool slightly aloft, areas that mix near BOS may go back to light snow.

[Professional Lurker]

How and when does this event end in MetroWest? The morning mets seem to disagree. Does this end Mon pm or Tues am, with ice or snow? Radar is showing quite a bit of color in the Berkshires. Is any of it making it to the ground?

Nothing here yet... Not quite berks, but definitely west of you...

[CoastalWx]

Basically I don't think BOS seems more than 2" because this may be fractured as it moves in. However, if the heavier stuff near NY state survives..then it's possible. I would think 1-2 for BOS right now tops.

[weatherMA]

weatherMA is sleeping easier now.

Indeed lol. I woke up and first thing I did was see if GYX has a map out.

2-4 AWT

[Baroclinic Zone]

Basically I don't think BOS seems more than 2" because this may be fractured as it moves in. However, if the heavier stuff near NY state survives..then it's possible. I would think 1-2 for BOS right now tops.

I think areas out W&N will do better.  Better lift and forcing out there.  System looks to loose it's punch as it moves E.

[CoastalWx]

I think areas out W&N will do better.  Better lift and forcing out there.  System looks to loose it's punch as it moves E.

 

Yeah that's my reasoning too for now. Best dynamics further north and northwest. We'll see.

[weathafella]

Imo it has and I am against the idea that the climate will warm so that we totally lose winter in the future. I just think the back end of our winters will not be like they used to, hope I'm wrong.

Anyway lets enjoy today, get thru Wed and hope the last 3 weeks produce

Wouldn't march ssts have been warmer by a large margin if that was the case?

[Professional Lurker]

Obs thread time?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah that's my reasoning too for now. Best dynamics further north and northwest. We'll see.

 

03z SREFs clearly show the "dryslot"  Will have to see how this impacts precip type in those areas,

[Baroclinic Zone]

Obs thread time?

 

Nah, I think we can turn this one into the obs as well since there aren't that many replies.

[dendrite]

So that somehow means December is snowier and March is Spring? it simpyl doesn't work like that. The are better reasons like decadal cycles that explain snowy Decembers and Morches. We've had Morches more common prior to the mid 50s.

And we've gained October as a snowy month. Funny how that works.

[CoastalWx]

And we've gained October as a snowy month. Funny how that works.

 

LOL, that's right.

[ChrisM]

Hopefully UConn closes in time for my 2pm chem lecture to be canceled lol.  What a snoozer.  Doubt it though.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Nah, I think we can turn this one into the obs as well since there aren't that many replies.

Excitement is building.

Nice moon again last night. Cold here, not windy. Partly sunny.

[HM]

I don't think this year is a simple "Morch" but I understand why the warm forecasts are being made...and if I was in their position, I'd probably lean that way for now too. But I'm not so sure it lasts and I could see kind of a cool early spring...gulp.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Excitement is building.

Nice moon again last night. Cold here, not windy. Partly sunny.

 

Yeah, that moon was spectacular.  Chilly this AM, but not overly cold.  Pink sky.

Expecations out of this, 1" with some sleet and fzdz.

[Modfan]

Yeah, that moon was spectacular.  Chilly this AM, but not overly cold.  Pink sky.

Expecations out of this, 1" with some sleet and fzdz.

What is ice potential with this?  Does anyone see more .10 accretion?

[snowman21]

Flurries have begun here.

[moneypitmike]

Looks like I miss a minor event while I soak up the last of my upper 70's today. Enjoy it guys. Fortunately 2-4 isn't a big deal for an uncleared driveway.

Folks are headed to the beast tomorrow? Enjoy. I don't land until noon at bdl. Should be clear by then in any case.

[Baroclinic Zone]

I don't think this year is a simple "Morch" but I understand why the warm forecasts are being made...and if I was in their position, I'd probably lean that way for now too. But I'm not so sure it lasts and I could see kind of a cool early spring...gulp.

 

In this forum, warm equals no snow.  Guess they forgot December around these parts was a solid + departure month and most saw at or above climo for snowfall.

[Ginx snewx]

What is ice potential with this?  Does anyone see more .10 accretion?

.1 Seems about right, although the farther East and interior you are seems to be more snow.