Disco/Nowcast/Observations for SWFE on Monday/Tuesday Snow to ice

[ChrisM]

how bullish are you on the ice threat dude?  NWS saying a trace?  Seems pretty lame.

[Quincy]

Icing could be pretty solid along Route 6. (wouldn't say 84 since I think NE Conn. locks into ice too) More sleet to the north, but it could really be very icy for a good chunk of Conn. Monday afternoon.

[weatherMA]

GFS looks good. 2-4" all systems go.

[CT Rain]

how bullish are you on the ice threat dude?  NWS saying a trace?  Seems pretty lame.

 

Maybe a tenth of an inch of ice accretion? Meteorologically NBD but it will be icy. 

[ChrisM]

Maybe a tenth of an inch of ice accretion? Meteorologically NBD but it will be icy.

Yeah, that annoying amount where its enough to be a nuisance but not enough to be impressive at all.

[free_man]

NAM is icey here Tue night...will have to keep an eye on that. It's trying to keep a drizzly wedge in here midday Wednesday too.

2-3" of snow for us prior to icing?

[CT Rain]

Yeah, that annoying amount where its enough to be a nuisance but not enough to be impressive at all.

 

I don't think it ever looked impressive as an "ice event" but with the antecedent cold conditions the roads could get pretty sloppy. 

[Typhoon Tip]

SNE: 32.1 after some desperation 1.2" snows for the geese?  Hope not.   The tuck stuff has merit.. the boundary is belated, and cold air given an excuse at our latitude, and well..eh.  There is only weak high pressure north though, and when you are relying mostly on hygroscopic cooling with conduction going on, I have seen some pretty remarkable antecedent low DP and temps find a way to 33 with drain.  It'll be interesting. 

[MaineJayhawk]

GYX issuing WWAs this morning for this one.

 

[Mr Torchey]

22/11 precip being eaten alive by dry air.

[dendrite]

GYX issuing WWAs this morning for this one.

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

weatherMA is sleeping easier now.

[dendrite]

The euro is weakening this a bit quicker than it was previously. 4" may be tough to attain. I still like a general 2-3". Maybe someone toward LEB gets lucky with 4".

[HoarfrostHubb]

Going as planned. Give me 1.1"

[powderfreak]

GYX issuing WWAs this morning for this one.

 

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

 

No advisory in BTV's Vermont zones for the same snowfall, lol.  They did have to issue one for the Adirondacks as 4-6" is pushing it without an advisory.

 

I'm all for no advisory on this one... really don't think 2-3" with spot 4" amounts warrants one.  This is New England... every passing cloud should be dropping 2-4" in January anyway, haha. 

 

I was always a big fan of the 4-8 inch WWA (ALB/BTV like to do that one from time to time) and anything above that can go Warning.

 

[weathafella]

Latest for sne....

[powderfreak]

weatherMA is sleeping easier now.

 

lol... he's gotta get out of the mentality that a couple inches warrents a WAA. 

[dendrite]

I think it's the trace of ice at the end that triggers the advisory...not the snow amounts.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I was surprised at the WWA here, but I suppose it is for the ice.

9.1F/2

Fo shizzle

[CoastalWx]

I think this could be interesting for BOS. One of the few events where they look to be in a "good" spot relatively speaking.

[OceanStWx]

I think it's the trace of ice at the end that triggers the advisory...not the snow amounts.

 

That'll do it. I'm less confident on the FZDZ towards PWM, but put it in the forecast just so it's out there for travelers. Plus it's not the best time of day to put even 2-3" down on the roads with people getting out of work.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like we'll have to lean  snowier and less icier as some were thinking yesterday..Deep arctic air masses always overperform snow wise. I think BDl sees at least 2 and BOS probably has their biggest snowfall of the season around 3 inches.

 

Noone warms above freezing until tomorrow afternoon.

 

Early dismissals today and delays tomorrow

[powderfreak]

I think it's the trace of ice at the end that triggers the advisory...not the snow amounts.

 

Ahhh, yeah BTV has freezing drizzle in the forecast possibly making stuff slick, but has held off for now.  That's a tough call.  Personally I hate having it for that trace amount of ice, but I know they are on the line if there's like a 10 car pile up for FZDZ on I-89 and no advisory was issued.

 

I mean, even once it starts to rain we are going to get freezing rain at like 36F on dirt roads and back roads because everything is just so cold on the ground right now.  My snow/ice packed dirt road is going to be an absolute skating rink once it starts to rain regardless of temperature. 

 

 

LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BTWN 06Z AND 12Z...DRYING

WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN ALOFT WHILE LOW LEVELS RETAIN MOISTURE.

THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO BE TOO SHALLOW TO REACH THE SNOW

GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD LEAD TO SNOW MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING

DRIZZLE AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. NOT EXPECTING FZDZ TO

LAST LONG AS DRYING WILL BE OCCURRING AND PRECIP WILL QUICKLY BE

TAPERING OFF. SNOW AND ANY FZDZ WILL CAUSE ROADS TO BE SLIPPERY.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 INCHES TO ABOUT 5 INCHES WITH

THE HIGHER END BEING ACROSS THE SLV AND NORTHERN ADKS.

 

[powderfreak]

The most exciting 3-6 hours of January en route?

 

*Why don't the .gif's loop/animate anymore?

 

 

[powderfreak]

Looks like we'll have to lean  snowier and less icier as some were thinking yesterday..Deep arctic air masses always overperform snow wise. I think BDl sees at least 2 and BOS probably has their biggest snowfall of the season around 3 inches.

 

Noone warms above freezing until tomorrow afternoon.

 

Early dismissals today and delays tomorrow

 

You're right about the surface cold overperforming, but I doubt it makes much of a difference aloft.

 

I can already see the WAA aloft happening up here...

 

3,615ft...14F

2,635ft... 8F

1,500ft... 4F

   750ft...-4F

[OceanStWx]

Ahhh, yeah BTV has freezing drizzle in the forecast possibly making stuff slick, but has held off for now.  That's a tough call.  Personally I hate having it for that trace amount of ice, but I know they are on the line if there's like a 10 car pile up for FZDZ on I-89 and no advisory was issued.

 

I mean, even once it starts to rain we are going to get freezing rain at like 36F on dirt roads and back roads because everything is just so cold on the ground right now.  My snow/ice packed dirt road is going to be an absolute skating rink once it starts to rain regardless of temperature. 

 

I'm a little surprised at the lack of a headline. I mean they have the 4+ snow amounts forecast for the southern few counties, plus the FZDZ. The strange part is that all the WFOs agree to nearly the tenth of an inch at the four corners area of SW NH and SE VT.

[Allenson]

lol... he's gotta get out of the mentality that a couple inches warrents a WAA. 

High population impact? 

 

Edit:  nevermind, he's back in Plymouth...where there is a WAA

[CoastalWx]

Hmm..

 

TAF KBOS 281134Z 2812/2918 VRB03KT P6SM SCT070
     FM281800 21006KT P6SM OVC060
     FM282100 20007KT 3SM -SN OVC040
     FM290000 15007KT 1SM -SNPL OVC010
     FM290300 13005KT 3SM -FZDZSNRAPL BR OVC010
     FM290500 28004KT 3SM -FZDZ BR OVC010
     FM291000 34007KT P6SM OVC010=
 

[CoastalWx]

Temps aloft actually cool late tonight. Might mean near BOS and north stays snow..at the least NE MA.

[powderfreak]

I'm a little surprised at the lack of a headline. I mean they have the 4+ snow amounts forecast for the southern few counties, plus the FZDZ. The strange part is that all the WFOs agree to nearly the tenth of an inch at the four corners area of SW NH and SE VT.

 

Actually I didn't even realize that... they do have the two southern counties (Rutland/Windsor) in 4-6" snowfall with freezing drizzle after and no headline.  I could see that getting an advisory, but I still think NNE (and New England in general) should have higher trigger thresholds.  But that's another discussion in itself.  I know you guys need to follow the guidelines specified.

[Mr Torchey]

24/15

light northeast breeze

overcast