Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Jb said yesterday on twitter that he though Chicago might make 5 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sounds like we have two extremely different camps....Qvector/Ohweathers thoughts do not portray this....and the CFS weeklies couldnt be further from these thoughts as we head into March. Spring does not start in mid-February here. Never has, never will. Last years Morch was something else, but even that was nearly a month after Valentines Day. LC is full of BS end of story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Interesting, imby has had 5 straight months of 3.0+ temp departures in met. winter months. Ending up at 0.0 would be a victory!!! Usually warm winters are back to back.... Rarely have a seen cold winters sandwiching a single warm year. The ocean which drives the weather is slow to respond to changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I remember quite the discussion recently concerning snow ratios. Sam Lashley from IWX posted this on chat today. The link is a map with rollover popups with data for each CWA. "There has been a lot of discussion recently on liquid to snow ratios and what is "normal". While 10 to 1 is the old and easy rule, it is not quite accurate. On average for our entire CWA, the ratio is 14:1. Closer to the lake it is 15:1 and closer to Ohio it is 12:1. To see the entire country and individual NWS CWAs, visit this link...http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I remember quite the discussion recently concerning snow ratios. Sam Lashley from IWX posted this on chat today. The link is a map with rollover popups with data for each CWA. "There has been a lot of discussion recently on liquid to snow ratios and what is "normal". While 10 to 1 is the old and easy rule, it is not quite accurate. On average for our entire CWA, the ratio is 14:1. Closer to the lake it is 15:1 and closer to Ohio it is 12:1. To see the entire country and individual NWS CWAs, visit this link...http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm " That link was done by one of my professors at CMU when he was a grad student at SLU. It is a very accurate map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I remember quite the discussion recently concerning snow ratios. Sam Lashley from IWX posted this on chat today. The link is a map with rollover popups with data for each CWA. "There has been a lot of discussion recently on liquid to snow ratios and what is "normal". While 10 to 1 is the old and easy rule, it is not quite accurate. On average for our entire CWA, the ratio is 14:1. Closer to the lake it is 15:1 and closer to Ohio it is 12:1. To see the entire country and individual NWS CWAs, visit this link...http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/SLR/slrmap.htm " Awesome, thanks for posting that. I've seen IND refer to 12:1 as the typical "normal" for the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Usually warm winters are back to back.... Rarely have a seen cold winters sandwiching a single warm year. The ocean which drives the weather is slow to respond to changes. I agree. Take 1931-32 and 1932-33. Then look at 1948/49 and 1949/50. Now these two past winters. We had two good winters in a row (2007/08 and 2008/09) followed by two okay winters (2009/10 and 2010/11) which featured a lot of high latitude blocking and now two duds (or dead ratters as someone in the New England forum calls them) in a row. Look out next year. So many years with a four in them have featured cold: February 1934, January and March 1984, January and February 1994 and, finally, January 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Meh....I still think DTW/SeMI sneaks in a 6"+ snowstorm somewhere between the torches. Its almost foolish to think the region wont see some sort of decent system. At this point the Chicago thing is just plain nut. But with 1.5 months of favorable snow chances left, you can't turn a blind eye to the potential. Even in the face of overwhelming seasonal warmth trends, this particular season has proved to be much better than 97- 98 or last year. Yes I finally think so lol, especially after last Fri- Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z GFS came in a tad colder with lows...fresh snowcover, clear skies? calm winds? Could get pretty interesting here... I smell a -15F to -20F here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Jb said yesterday on twitter that he though Chicago might make 5 below. Depends what they eeked out tonight in terms of snow. In Chicago, the coldest temperature I remember without snow was -7 on February 18th, 2006 which was another blockbuster Chicago winter outside of the first three awesome weeks of Dec. 2005. It was a pretty impressive Artic blast given the lack of snowcover in the region and considering it was getting towards the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAEFS continues to show quite the torch in the east half of the country... Something to watch I guess... Looks like Feb starts cold, with some moderation this weekend (and snow chances)...probably get back into the 30Fs next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAEFS continues to show quite the torch in the east half of the country... Something to watch I guess... Looks like Feb starts cold, with some moderation this weekend (and snow chances)...probably get back into the 30Fs next week. Doesn't look like that bad a torch for the Western Lakes, might end up with a decent cutter at the end of that who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 EURO suggests maybe a day or two of 30s through 240. Other than that it looks like a persistent NW flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 NAEFS continues to show quite the torch in the east half of the country... Something to watch I guess... Looks like Feb starts cold, with some moderation this weekend (and snow chances)...probably get back into the 30Fs next week. with constant clippers coming down, I believe this is a bit to warm over MN, WI and possibly ORD as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I have a question for you all. I don't want to clutter up the guess the snowfall amounts going on for ORD, but would there be any interest in starting a thread something like this. Who will receive more snow for Feb MSP or ORD? Just throwing this out, I think the end of Feb is going to be interesting in this area. I may not be around to gauge the interest, so if there is enough someone could start said thread. I would suggest a deadline of 12am Feb 2nd due to the late nature of this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well LC has the euro weeklies on his side. Atleast for Feb anyways. Shows some decent torching in week 2 and week 4. All of the cold swings back over to Russia with the torch ( above normal temps ) taking over Canada from week 2 onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I have a question for you all. I don't want to clutter up the guess the snowfall amounts going on for ORD, but would there be any interest in starting a thread something like this. Who will receive more snow for Feb MSP or ORD? Just throwing this out, I think the end of Feb is going to be interesting in this area. I may not be around to gauge the interest, so if there is enough someone could start said thread. I would suggest a deadline of 12am Feb 2nd due to the late nature of this idea. MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Speaking of long range lets look at some things, I don't have nearly as good of understanding of things like QV, but let me take a shot. First of all lets look at the NAO as shown by the models towards the middle of Feb. It looks fairly neutral, both the East and West based look neutral as well (which I won't show.) And the PNA That looks to be on positive trend, until the middle of the month, when it tends to try and go negative, I don't believe the GFS is correct showing negative values from the 9th to the 16th. Now the EPO Now the EPO has a strong negative look to it, which should put the OH Valley into a nw flow, which would put a ridge out west. Since we have a weaker signal on the PNA going negative (a trough out west), I don't think the -Pna will materialize. So that leads me to this. Without a blocking force, systems will be rather quick to move through the pattern. Since I expect a ridge out west and a negative EPO bringing troughs into the upper Midwest and OH Valley, there will likely be a somewhat strong SE ridge developing. The question is where in the northern part of the country will we see the most snow? My best guess is that Madison and Chicago could be in the bulls eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 For this month you have to take into account the AO and what the remaining SSW event will do to it. The -EPO and positive QBO will hopefully keep this month largely wintry for our subforum. Starting off the month in low single digits with wind chills around -10°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 As far as the clipper systems go, they will likely have more moisture over ORD than MSP so if the mean low tracks through MSP to ORD I would expect more snow in Chicago than Minneapolis through the 1st 8 days of Feb. After that it may be a bit to cold to see a major storm here in MPS. So here goes.......Gulp!!! snowfall for MSP in Feb 7.9" for ORD 11.7". Confidence factor here in MSP is average. Confidence at ORD is below average, if I bust at ORD it will because I was to low, and if I am low there it will be big time low bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 EURO/EURO ensembles don't look quite as torchy with the D7+ storm as the GFS does. A lot more upstream blocking on the former models. Warm up after that is looking undeniable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 -9F to start Feb... Not too bad, expected colder. NWS showing 1 to 2 inches of snow tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 [sarcasm]Pennybags and Nickels FTW!!![/sarcasm] Seriously, it's a nice pattern if you simply want consistent snowcover. By the end of February, I give up on this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 [sarcasm]Pennybags and Nickels FTW!!![/sarcasm] Seriously, it's a nice pattern if you simply want consistent snowcover. By the end of February, I give up on this season. I gave up on this season about 3 weeks ago. Completely in salvage mode right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I gave up on this season about 3 weeks ago. Completely in salvage mode right now. I'm close to that point, yet I fear if I toss in the white flag now then we're going to have a rocking February. As far as March, with the ongoing drought, I have to assume the trend of the last two years continue, thinking it will be less than impressive snow-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm close to that point, yet I fear if I toss in the white flag now then we're going to have a rocking February. As far as March, with the ongoing drought, I have to assume the trend of the last two years continue, thinking it will be less than impressive snow-wise. Even a 20" February wouldn't be enough to redeem the winter as a whole. I'd enjoy it very much, but it would't change a bad winter into a good one. It would take something exceptional like a Feb 2008 here (I'm thinking Feb 2010(?) is a good example for you) to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Dropped down to -1°, second subzero low of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 As the last month of meteorological winter begins, it is becoming increasingly likely that we will have a milder than normal winter (barring some unforeseen frigid Feb), but how mild remains to be seen. However, from a snowfall perspective, this winter is seemingly turning into a very normal Detroit winter. Not good but not bad. Both snowfall and snowcover to-date is aligning itself up nearly with normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 NAEFS not nearly as torchy for what would be roughly the second week of Feb... -5F here... temp not going anywhere with the snowpack in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.