michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 There has been signs of warming on the models for days around day 10, it isn't exactly one run showing warmth. Alright, only time will tell. Im sorry but "massive torch" in Feb to me implies 60s. We shall see. When looping the ensemble means I do see the big ridge out west. Anyone have the euro weeklies? cfs weeklies show no torch at all over the Lakes (other than week 1 lol) through week 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Feels like the 1990's all over again... Seemed impossible to keep snow on the ground for more than a week back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Personally all I care about is seeing another 6+" ripping snowstorm or crippling thunder ladden ice storm. I dont care about snow cover or long lasting cold. Wouldn't mind a torchy Feb if it meant increased storm chances and generally wild temp spreads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Personally all I care about is seeing another 6+" ripping snowstorm or crippling thunder ladden ice storm. I dont care about snow cover or long lasting cold. Wouldn't mind a torchy Feb if it meant increased storm chances and generally wild temp spreads. The roller coaster weather pattern certainly would favor such things over a persistent deep trough. Look at this last week ALONE in SE MI...I will go Thurs-Thurs... We start off with brutal cold, temps some 10-20F below normal...then have an overperforming snowfall (Fri), another overperforming snow/ice storm (sun), near-record warmth (tue) and heavy rain (tue/wed) and then by thurs temps will be back to at least 10 degrees below normal. Definitely not the endless boring same stuff day after day like we had in November. Its not the pattern snowcover hounds like me want, but if you like exciting, changeable weather and are more into total snowfall than snowcover, this may be your winter the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 the 6z GFS was definately warm looking. Maybe not a torch, but certainly not cold either. It's amazing how, part from 2003,2007 and 2008, February has been lacking in any real winter excitement after the first week. Back in the late 80s/early 90s, February was often colder than January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 2007-08 was the best roller coaster winter ever. Ensembles definitely showing some warmth knocking on the door around day 10 and beyond, but it does look more active as well. I'd take my chances with the increased activity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 the 6z GFS was definately warm looking. Maybe not a torch, but certainly not cold either. It's amazing how, part from 2003,2007 and 2008, February has been lacking in any real winter excitement after the first week. Back in the late 80s/early 90s, February was often colder than January! Setting cold aside, February has on average been our snowiest month the last 10 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Personally all I care about is seeing another 6+" ripping snowstorm or crippling thunder ladden ice storm. I dont care about snow cover or long lasting cold. Wouldn't mind a torchy Feb if it meant increased storm chances and generally wild temp spreads. Terrible for recreation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 2007-08 was the best roller coaster winter ever. Ensembles definitely showing some warmth knocking on the door around day 10 and beyond, but it does look more active as well. I'd take my chances with the increased activity... no doubt...last nights training storms was the most exciting weather since the derecho period this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 the 6z GFS was definately warm looking. Maybe not a torch, but certainly not cold either. It's amazing how, part from 2003,2007 and 2008, February has been lacking in any real winter excitement after the first week. Back in the late 80s/early 90s, February was often colder than January! WOW...the difference between here and there is stunning. Februarys in the 1990s (outside 1993-94) SUCKED big time, and since 2003 have been AWESOME with only two stinkers (2004 & 2006). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Terrible for recreation. Not that they will get no thaws, but obviously up Paradise way a roller coaster could, if anything, help to deepen a snowpack. I will be up there Mar 1-3, almost positive thats where im going for my late-winter snow trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 WOW...the difference between here and there is stunning. Februarys in the 1990s (outside 1993-94) SUCKED big time, and since 2003 have been AWESOME with only two stinkers (2004 & 2006). February seems very cyclical. Snowfall at ORD since 2000. 2000: 11.6" 2001: 2.2" 2002: 1.8" 2003: 1.5" 2004: 6.5" 2005: 2.7" 2006: 2.5" 2007: 20.3" 2008: 21.8" 2009: 4.5" 2010: 22.5" 2011: 29.0" (snowiest on record) 2012: 5.6" If we go back further in time, the cycle continues. Matter of fact, from 1910 to 1932...no February had double digit snowfall totals for Chicago. Prior to that, from 1893 to 1909, 14 of the 17 had 10"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 February seems very cyclical. Snowfall at ORD since 2000. 2000: 11.6" 2001: 2.2" 2002: 1.8" 2003: 1.5" 2004: 6.5" 2005: 2.7" 2006: 2.5" 2007: 20.3" 2008: 21.8" 2009: 4.5" 2010: 22.5" 2011: 29.0" (snowiest on record) 2012: 5.6" If we go back further in time, the cycle continues. Matter of fact, from 1910 to 1932...no February had double digit snowfall totals for Chicago. Prior to that, from 1893 to 1909, 14 of the 17 had 10"+. Detroit Feb snowfall since 2000 2000- 8.1" 2001- 2.9" 2002- 6.7" 2003- 19.2" 2004- 0.9" 2005- 12.5" 2006- 3.8" 2007- 14.1" 2008- 24.2" 2009- 8.5" 2010- 27.0" 2011- 31.7" 2012- 10.2" Detroit average FEB snow by decade...1900s, 1920s, 1980s, 2000s the only decades to average double digits. The almighty 1970s were surprisingly low in Feb. Also, due to a few good Febs in the early 1990s and a few bad Febs in the early 2000s, the 1990s to 2000s comparison isnt nearly as extreme as, say, 1993-2002 and 2003-2012. 1880s- 9.2" 1890s- 9.4" 1900s- 14.6" 1910s- 7.9" 1920s- 11.2" 1930s- 7.5" 1940s- 6.7" 1950s- 7.5" 1960s- 8.3" 1970s- 7.5" 1980s- 11.4" 1990s- 7.7" 2000s- 10.1" Detroits longest streak without a double digit Feb snow total was 8 years (1913-20). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 WOW...the difference between here and there is stunning. Februarys in the 1990s (outside 1993-94) SUCKED big time, and since 2003 have been AWESOME with only two stinkers (2004 & 2006).It could just be psychological on my part though. I'd have to check snowfall, but temperature wise, February has trended warmer. Mind you, 2011 saw an impressive February. 1988 and 1989 both saw Februarys that were colder and snowier than January. A repeat of 1967 would be great.We'll see. It was just one model run and hopefully it (6z GFS) was wrong temperature wise. The clipper next Tuesday looks good though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Clipper in and around Feb 1-3, depending on timing, is on the majority of the guidance. Something to watch for later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It could just be psychological on my part though. I'd have to check snowfall, but temperature wise, February has trended warmer. Mind you, 2011 saw an impressive February. 1988 and 1989 both saw Februarys that were colder and snowier than January. A repeat of 1967 would be great. We'll see. It was just one model run and hopefully it (6z GFS) was wrong temperature wise. The clipper next Tuesday looks good though! EVen temp-wise...1990s Feb's were the warmest of any decade since the 1880s at Detroit FEB avg temp: 1980s- 26.2F 1990s- 29.1F 2000s- 27.7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Clipper in and around Feb 1-3, depending on timing, is on the majority of the guidance. Something to watch for later. I was saying the same thing yesterday. I think of how the clipper express during the arctic blast failed...but in years past, more often than not this was a GOOD sign that often times even lead to a somewhat more impressive clipper than early runs indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I was saying the same thing yesterday. I think of how the clipper express during the arctic blast failed...but in years past, more often than not this was a GOOD sign that often times even lead to a somewhat more impressive clipper than early runs indicated. I think this go around, the PV won't be as overwhelming. I think the best chances with this next clipper reside in MN, WI, MI, ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 D7 looks like the next chance for disappointment here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Eh, posted this in the wrong thread. 1-3" clipper on the 18z GFS for Saturday. Can't lose. Then down the road, Toronto gets buried on 2/5. I totally expect that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 D7 looks like the next chance for disappointment here. SNE guys and HM are kind of banging the drum for this one. Obviously it's about the end result for their neck of the woods, but it has to come from somewhere. I wouldn't completely dismiss the threat for YBY I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Eh, posted this in the wrong thread. 1-3" clipper on the 18z GFS for Saturday. Can't lose. Then down the road, Toronto gets buried on 2/5. I totally expect that to happen. Put your money on the messiah's second coming. Better odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 My guess the day 7 "potential" will flatten out like most other systems this winter, the GOA low will be hulking down the pike preparing a longer term pattern change disaster..........to the end of the month when a blizzard strikes like 1984 or 1965!!!! Ok, I just went Joe Bastardi with that one......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 GFS continues to show that clipper Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 9 straight months featuring below normal normal snowfall (excluding the months that don't average snow). I say this is the end of the line. 15.5" for Feb 2013 imby. what the hell. Negativity doesn't work. Let's try something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 pack it in folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 lol Signals showing up in the medium/long range, that the pattern turns/remains active. Might be white for some, might be wet for some. But something is better than boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Interesting..they both show a very similar jet stream structure, except the EURO does not flood us with warmth. I don't think the GFS looks THAT bad. If we could get the NAO to become just a little more negative or the ridge out west to become sharper, it wouldn't be that bad for us. Continuation of clipper express? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 pack it in folks Are you suggesting we might enter that zonal of fun period with a active Alaska, dry across the plains and great lakes, ridicoulous period above ave temps with Plenty of foggy mornings? Sounds fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Or actually, looking at the maps again, this may be a case where we want the NAO to be more positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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