February 2013 General Discussion

[blizzardof96]

I'll be in Central Ontario from the 20 through the 25th and I'm starting to worry. I can't handle high temps in the double digit below zero.

Where in ontario will you be? I was up in parry sound last weekend and it was very cold with lots of snow.

[Jonger]

I'll be in Central Ontario from the 20 through the 25th and I'm starting to worry. I can't handle high temps in the double digit below zero.

Where in ontario will you be? I was up in parry sound last weekend and it was very cold with lots of snow.

Wawa to Timmons to Heart and back to Wawa.

[michsnowfreak]

I've learned that Colorado lows are generally not good for Detroit and Toronto as they tend to cut to our west, giving us rain and sleet. Texas lows and Gulf lows are the best.

I think moisture source is a huge thing too. We always talk about gulf connection...and this region is NO stranger to a good old 8-12" snowstorm. But looking back at the most historic storms to hit this region: Apr 1886, Dec 1974, Jan 1978...all had a huge ATLANTIC moisture flung westward into the storm. Perhaps the moisture source is the difference for our area between an 8-12" storm with locally higher amounts and a widespread 15"+ snowstorm.

 

Heres an interesting twist to the severe/snowstorm discussion for the quality over quantity folks. Just like we get more in terms of quantity of snowstorms and severe weather than the east coast...in addition to the monster snowstorms when ingredients are right, they can also get hurricanes. If a destructive blizzard outtrumps several snowstorms, why does not a hurricane trump several severe thunderstorms? Its an honest question because truth be told not a huge severe weather person myself.

 

Regarding current weather...i was up in Bloomfiled Hills last night. They definitely have more snow and bigger snowbanks, and knowing that we had more than them all week long until Friday, its clearly a result of Fridays storm. I dont think they will even lose the full snowcover there tonight, we probably will be down to piles, patches, and snowbanks.

[michsnowfreak]

I'd probably say somewhere a bit further South like DC, although the snowstorm potential is a bit more muted, when they do get a good one it is usually huge and they are much more prone to severe weather than Albany along with affects of tropical systems.

Now you are talking a pure NIGHTMARE for me I dont think they have had a grass-covering snowfall since Feb 2010 snowmageddon. What would be REALLY nice for many snowlovers would be to have unlimited resources to pick up and fly to wherever a massive storm is going to hit. id love it. That way I would still get our frequent winter weather and then get to see a 2+ foot bomb, wherever it is. Ive seen whiteout conditions and 1-2 foot snowdepths in my own yard, 4 feet depth up north...but never at the same time with 80 mph winds to boot.

[SpartyOn]

I think moisture source is a huge thing too. We always talk about gulf connection...and this region is NO stranger to a good old 8-12" snowstorm. But looking back at the most historic storms to hit this region: Apr 1886, Dec 1974, Jan 1978...all had a huge ATLANTIC moisture flung westward into the storm. Perhaps the moisture source is the difference for our area between an 8-12" storm with locally higher amounts and a widespread 15"+ snowstorm.

Heres an interesting twist to the severe/snowstorm discussion for the quality over quantity folks. Just like we get more in terms of quantity of snowstorms and severe weather than the east coast...in addition to the monster snowstorms when ingredients are right, they can also get hurricanes. If a destructive blizzard outtrumps several snowstorms, why does not a hurricane trump several severe thunderstorms? Its an honest question because truth be told not a huge severe weather person myself.

Regarding current weather...i was up in Bloomfiled Hills last night. They definitely have more snow and bigger snowbanks, and knowing that we had more than them all week long until Friday, its clearly a result of Fridays storm. I dont think they will even lose the full snowcover there tonight, we probably will be down to piles, patches, and snowbanks.

Much of Oakland county was sporting a 3-4" snowpack prior to Fridays system. Even areas well north of M59 had over a 3" snowpack (adison and Ortonville) Ive been working in the ypsi arbor area for the last few weeks and commuting to Oakland Cnty as well. I dont see the major disparity in the snowpack and snowfall that you point out.

[michsnowfreak]

Much of Oakland county was sporting a 3-4" snowpack prior to Fridays system. Even areas well north of M59 had over a 3" snowpack (adison and Ortonville) Ive been working in the ypsi arbor area for the last few weeks and commuting to Oakland Cnty as well. I dont see the major disparity in the snowpack and snowfall that you point out.

I was talking specifically about the area I was in not all of OC. A good friend of mine lives in Bloomfield and goes to Chesterfield often, and they both had less snow than downriver last week (and Chesterfield had less than Bloomfield). Den in Livonia confirmed as well. It was quite evident in the I-94 bands as well. Didnt say it was a major disparity but there was a difference, and that was reversed on Friday.

 

Feb 5th snow depths south of town:

Ann Arbor: 6"

Detroit: 6"

MBY: 6"

Tecumseh: 5"

Dearborn: 4"

Saline: 4"

Newport: 4"

 

Feb 5th snow depths north of town:

W Bloomfield: 3"

Howell: 3"

Pontiac: 2"

Farmington: 2"

Whitmore Lk: 2"

White Lake: 2"

North of OC just T-2"

[Powerball]

Heres an interesting twist to the severe/snowstorm discussion for the quality over quantity folks. Just like we get more in terms of quantity of snowstorms and severe weather than the east coast...in addition to the monster snowstorms when ingredients are right, they can also get hurricanes. If a destructive blizzard outtrumps several snowstorms, why does not a hurricane trump several severe thunderstorms? Its an honest question because truth be told not a huge severe weather person myself.

 

Because hurricanes are so moisture-laden and warm, there's very little lightning and thunder associated with them, even despite the extreme rainfall rate.

 

On top of that, because there's so much speed shear, it's very difficult to get good vertical cloud development that's conducive for t'storms and significant tornadoes.

[Harry]

I think moisture source is a huge thing too. We always talk about gulf connection...and this region is NO stranger to a good old 8-12" snowstorm. But looking back at the most historic storms to hit this region: Apr 1886, Dec 1974, Jan 1978...all had a huge ATLANTIC moisture flung westward into the storm. Perhaps the moisture source is the difference for our area between an 8-12" storm with locally higher amounts and a widespread 15"+ snowstorm.

 

Heres an interesting twist to the severe/snowstorm discussion for the quality over quantity folks. Just like we get more in terms of quantity of snowstorms and severe weather than the east coast...in addition to the monster snowstorms when ingredients are right, they can also get hurricanes. If a destructive blizzard outtrumps several snowstorms, why does not a hurricane trump several severe thunderstorms? Its an honest question because truth be told not a huge severe weather person myself.

 

Regarding current weather...i was up in Bloomfiled Hills last night. They definitely have more snow and bigger snowbanks, and knowing that we had more than them all week long until Friday, its clearly a result of Fridays storm. I dont think they will even lose the full snowcover there tonight, we probably will be down to piles, patches, and snowbanks.

 

 

How frequent are hurricanes though along the NE coast?

 

 

Now you are talking a pure NIGHTMARE for me I dont think they have had a grass-covering snowfall since Feb 2010 snowmageddon. What would be REALLY nice for many snowlovers would be to have unlimited resources to pick up and fly to wherever a massive storm is going to hit. id love it. That way I would still get our frequent winter weather and then get to see a 2+ foot bomb, wherever it is. Ive seen whiteout conditions and 1-2 foot snowdepths in my own yard, 4 feet depth up north...but never at the same time with 80 mph winds to boot.

 

These kinds of posts speaks to WHY those like you are in desperate need of such a blizzard. Whats the point of having to travel to see it elsewhere? For something like this ( not a tornado ) there is NO comparison to having it in your own backyard. THAT is a HUGE part of the excitement. For me it is anyways.

[daddylonglegs]

Up to 38F... about .26" of precip...enough precip to make a big sloppy mess.   Shoveling some snow out on the northside of the house...just a big wet sloppy heavy slush snow...the type that when it falls it goes "plop".. When it refreezes, its going to be solid ice.

[cyclone77]

Finished with 0.28".  Temps starting to jump up pretty good as the dry slot approaches.  Still overcast, but should break out here soon.  Temps in southeast Iowa have jumped into the mid 50s, so we should crack 50 here as well in the next few hours.

[hawkeye_wx]

Temp has reached 48 here in CR, but that's probably as high as we'll go.  The front is almost here.  The wind will go from very light to 35 mph gusts as it passes.  The mild air has been able to melt some snow and ice in the backyard, but we'll need a few more days above freezing(maybe this week) to finish the job.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I'm hoping my 15" snowpack can absorb much of tomorrow's rain. It would be a shame to lose this winter wonderland so soon after getting it.

[A-L-E-K]

snowpack holding strong...was so dense and water laden it's going to be hard to melt

[cyclone77]

Dry slot has arrived and cleared the skies.  Nice to see after a dark and rainy day. 

[snowstormcanuck]

I'm hoping my 15" snowpack can absorb much of tomorrow's rain. It would be a shame to lose this winter wonderland so soon after getting it.

 

It ain't going to look as pretty but it'll survive. We're heading into the freezer later this week and even if no storms materialize we'll probably have a couple of opportunities for LES scraps to freshen up the crustiness. 

[frostfern]

It's black ice galore on a lot of the secondary roads on the NE side of town this afternoon.   Even though air temps are above freezing the rain has frozen some places and it's very deceptive. I tried to slow down to turn into my driveway and slid like 30 meters past.

[RCNYILWX]

Here's my experience with Nemozilla. I've been back home in northeastern Queens in NYC for the weekend. After an initial burst of 0.4" of snow Friday morning, too much warm air at 925 mb kept us battling a sleet and rain mix until the mid afternoon when we mixed back and then changed over to a gloppy wet snow. But then the megaband stretching from Long Island up into central Mass robbed us of higher rates for several hours, combined with the wetter snow making it tougher to accumulate.

Shortly before 11pm the backside deformation snows got going and the better cold air advection finally arrived so we went to a much higher ratio rapidly accumulating snow. Measured storm total as of 11pm was 4", 2 hours later up to 8", 9.3" by 2am, 10.5" by 3am, 11.1" by 5am with just 0.3" more before 12z for a total of 11.4". The grand finale was an insane 30-35 dBZ band that moved through my town in about 20 minutes prior to 3am, producing ~1" of snow in that time, with visibility 1/16 mile or less and 40 mph wind gusts. Some of the heaviest snowfall I've ever experienced, definitely reminiscent of GHD and it was more like a lake effect band. The band almost looked like a bowing out squall line on radar.

Although we didn't receive the extreme amounts in NYC, still an impressive storm for the amount of purely deformation axis snows since we missed out on most of the WAA snow. Made the 12/20 storm fizzling out for Chicagoland more disappointing. I'm guessing if that storm had waited just 3-4 more hours to enter occlusion/weakening phase, we would've been hammered with at least 3 hours of moderate to heavy snow and wind as we had forecast. On a side note, my former office, WFO-NY (OKX) 60 miles east of NYC on Long Island ended up with 30.9" of snow and 4.85" LE! Their storm total as of 7pm on Friday was 8". Just amazing what these East Coast bombs can do. Hundreds of cars were stranded on highways on Long Island similar to Lakeshore Drive and the major east west expressway finally reopened from central Long Island and east this afternoon. The roof of a bowling alley collapsed under the weight of the snow earlier today. I'll try to post some pics later of the finale band if anyone's interested. Hopefully this potentially more active period coming up can produce a big storm for those of us who have missed out on one so far this winter.

[IWXwx]

snowpack holding strong...was so dense and water laden it's going to be hard to melt

Just curious, what's you depth on the north side?

[frostfern]

Because hurricanes are so moisture-laden and warm, there's very little lightning and thunder associated with them, even despite the extreme rainfall rate.

 

On top of that, because there's so much speed shear, it's very difficult to get good vertical cloud development that's conducive for t'storms and significant tornadoes.

 

The second statement isn't true.  Hurricanes and even tropical storms are notorious for producing tornadoes when making landfall.  That there's often little lighting in the eyewall and inner rainbands of hurricanes is due to lack of CAPE.  Shear has nothing to do with it.  By the time the inflow reaches the inner core of the hurricane entire column is pretty much saturated and mixed such that a sounding will show constant theta-e.  This isn't always true as sometimes rapidly intensifying hurricanes out over water do have significant CAPE and t-storms embedded within the eyewall.  In that stage the storm is sucking heat content out of the water faster than it can convect so CAPE can build up for a time.  It just usually isn't the case when making landfall because the storm is usually weakening.

 

Outer rainbands OTOH can have quite a bit of lighting and in some cases they can even break up into discrete tornadic supercells.  Updraft speeds aren't comparable to what you get on the plains or anything but it's adequate enough to produce severe weather.

[Brewers]

Had a high of 39 with 0.25" of rain. Snow pack still looks good, MKE reporting a snow depth of 7"

[Ottawa Blizzard]

It ain't going to look as pretty but it'll survive. We're heading into the freezer later this week and even if no storms materialize we'll probably have a couple of opportunities for LES scraps to freshen up the crustiness. 

Good to hear. The period of the 18-23rd looks promising for a bigger storm. One thing's for sure, this February is making up for the lousy December.

 

Oh, love your new signature!

[Geos]

snowpack holding strong...was so dense and water laden it's going to be hard to melt

 

That's impressive after the rain and all!

 

Right now it's 42° and just cloudy. MKX mentioning fog could sweep in before the colder air arrives. I know the snowpack compressed a little, but just looking at it, it doesn't look much different after 0.26" of rain. Snow is mostly off the trees now.

[snowstormcanuck]

Good to hear. The period of the 18-23rd looks promising for a bigger storm. One thing's for sure, this February is making up for the lousy December.

 

Oh, love your new signature!

 

thanks. It's a placeholder while I think of something better I guess.

 

The whole winter leading up to the storm was lousy, including January. Don't let it off the hook.

[Geos]

Here's my experience with Nemozilla. I've been back home in northeastern Queens in NYC for the weekend. After an initial burst of 0.4" of snow Friday morning, too much warm air at 925 mb kept us battling a sleet and rain mix until the mid afternoon when we mixed back and then changed over to a gloppy wet snow. But then the megaband stretching from Long Island up into central Mass robbed us of higher rates for several hours, combined with the wetter snow making it tougher to accumulate.

Shortly before 11pm the backside deformation snows got going and the better cold air advection finally arrived so we went to a much higher ratio rapidly accumulating snow. Measured storm total as of 11pm was 4", 2 hours later up to 8", 9.3" by 2am, 10.5" by 3am, 11.1" by 5am with just 0.3" more before 12z for a total of 11.4". The grand finale was an insane 30-35 dBZ band that moved through my town in about 20 minutes prior to 3am, producing ~1" of snow in that time, with visibility 1/16 mile or less and 40 mph wind gusts. Some of the heaviest snowfall I've ever experienced, definitely reminiscent of GHD and it was more like a lake effect band. The band almost looked like a bowing out squall line on radar.

Although we didn't receive the extreme amounts in NYC, still an impressive storm for the amount of purely deformation axis snows since we missed out on most of the WAA snow. Made the 12/20 storm fizzling out for Chicagoland more disappointing. I'm guessing if that storm had waited just 3-4 more hours to enter occlusion/weakening phase, we would've been hammered with at least 3 hours of moderate to heavy snow and wind as we had forecast. On a side note, my former office, WFO-NY (OKX) 60 miles east of NYC on Long Island ended up with 30.9" of snow and 4.85" LE! Their storm total as of 7pm on Friday was 8". Just amazing what these East Coast bombs can do. Hundreds of cars were stranded on highways on Long Island similar to Lakeshore Drive and the major east west expressway finally reopened from central Long Island and east this afternoon. The roof of a bowling alley collapsed under the weight of the snow earlier today. I'll try to post some pics later of the finale band if anyone's interested. Hopefully this potentially more active period coming up can produce a big storm for those of us who have missed out on one so far this winter.

 

Nice story you brought back with you!

I can only imagine how cars and other vehicles got stuck out in the area. I'd definitely be interested in seeing some of your pictures.

[Powerball]

The second statement isn't true.  Hurricanes and even tropical storms are notorious for producing tornadoes when making landfall.  That there's often little lighting in the eyewall and inner rainbands of hurricanes is due to lack of CAPE.  Shear has nothing to do with it.  By the time the inflow reaches the inner core of the hurricane entire column is pretty much saturated and mixed such that a sounding will show constant theta-e.  This isn't always true as sometimes rapidly intensifying hurricanes out over water do have significant CAPE and t-storms embedded within the eyewall.  In that stage the storm is sucking heat content out of the water faster than it can convect so CAPE can build up for a time.  It just usually isn't the case when making landfall because the storm is usually weakening.

 

Outer rainbands OTOH can have quite a bit of lighting and in some cases they can even break up into discrete tornadic supercells.  Updraft speeds aren't comparable to what you get on the plains or anything but it's adequate enough to produce severe weather.

 

I was referring to the huricanes when they make landfall.

 

And you're correct about the outer rain bands. However, as I said before, they're not typically known for producing significant tornadoes or severe weather, namely due to the moist-adiabetic lapse rates and lack of vertical shear. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it's not typical. And I'm not referring to the weak rain-wrapped spin ups either. They can produce very heavy rainfall and gusty winds however.

 

But ultimately, I'd take severe weather over hurricanes.

[daddylonglegs]

Temp continues to rise...more rain has fallen..

[A-L-E-K]

Just curious, what's you depth on the north side?

 

 

sorry for the late reply...still holding at 2" or so after the rain/warmth

[dmc76]

First batch of precip in fact was Frz Rain have a solid glaze of ice on driveway...

[Spwild47]

That's impressive after the rain and all!

 

Right now it's 42° and just cloudy. MKX mentioning fog could sweep in before the colder air arrives. I know the snowpack compressed a little, but just looking at it, it doesn't look much different after 0.26" of rain. Snow is mostly off the trees now.

I thought the same thing, that it didnt look too different, until I rode my snowmobile in...the 10" of snow left when compressed squeezed down to 1" of snow/slush mix...i guess that doesnt matter to most of us, and if the water inthe snowpack freezes it will be more melt resistant during subsequent warmups, but what we see is nothing liike what was there 24 hrs ago

[frostfern]

I was referring to the huricanes when they make landfall.

 

And you're correct about the outer rain bands. However, as I said before, they're not typically known for producing significant tornadoes or severe weather, namely due to the moist-adiabetic lapse rates and lack of vertical shear. I'm not saying it can't happen, but it's not typical. And I'm not referring to the weak rain-wrapped spin ups either. They can produce very heavy rainfall and gusty winds however.

 

But ultimately, I'd take severe weather over hurricanes.

 

The outer bands are usually a bit more unstable than moist-adiabatic (it's the inner bands and eyewall itself that are moist-adiabatic) and they frequently do produce rotating thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes.  SPC almost always issues a Tor Watch for the right-front quadrant of a landfalling hurricane.  You're probably not going to get an F4-F5 or strong enough updrafts to support large hail, but then that's pretty rare in the Great Lakes too.

 

I know what you're getting at.  Hurricane rain band supercells aren't the most impressive on radar, don't offer much visually in terms of dramatic storm structure, and aren't generally anything chase worthy due to their being socked-in with low clouds and precip.  That doesn't mean they can't produce a lot of destruction though.  They are more comparable to very low-cape tornadic events with an ordinary synoptic system.  I'm with you that I'd take ordinary mid-west / plains style severe outbreaks over hurricane rainbands any day.  Storms are much more impressive when they explode suddenly and blacken the sky after a hot sunny day than when they are wrapped in mist and stratus. 

 

Just have to add my 2C.