snowlover2 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Last month of met winter is almost upon us. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The finnal stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The finnal stretch. Do you not get the red line under misspelled words? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Do you not get the red line under misspelled words? I am guessing no, or doesn't care or probably a mix of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I am guessing no, or doesn't care or probably a mix of both. Cut him some slack. Final is one of those tricky words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Cut him some slack. Final is one of those tricky words. I know right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Do you not get the red line under misspelled words? I turned "auto correct" off on the phone. Not a good idea for a cronic on the go phone poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I turned "auto correct" off on the phone. Not a good idea for a cronic on the go phone poster. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Indeed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 What will February bring us?? Based on the latest runs of the GEM and Euro ensemble means through Feb.10 the biggest feature on the maps appears to be a rather consistent western ridge which should keep the PNA in a + state. Which in my mind would leave us a neutral to slightly negative EPO. I happen to believe that the operational models are to bullish on developing a positive EPO, so therefore I believe we will be in a predominant NW flow. The ensemble means are showing 850mb temps in the source region to be near normal to slightly below normal. Looking at the MJO. The ECMWF from 01/25 thru 2/25 takes the signal through phase 8 all the way into phase 4, as a matter of fact, for this far out in a ensemble means forecast, that is quite a strong signal and may get stronger as time progresses: Temperature trends for each of the phases: For February I expect temps here at MSP to run about -3. That should be driven mostly by night time lows as the ave low temp here raises from 8° to 18° by the end of the month. Daytime highs may be just slightly below normal. For the rest of the sub forum I would expect that Central WI will see about the same as MSP. The Northern OH valley including southern WI should see temps about 1 to 2 below normal, the Central OH valley near normal to slightly below normal and the southern OH valley to be near normal. The UP and Lower MI around -3 to -2. As far as precipitation goes here is what the different MJO phases show: I would expect the first half of February to be rather benign as far as precipitation. However as we transition from phase 3 to phase 4 somewhere around the 20th of the month, based on temp and precip signals I expect the end of February to be rather active. At this time it's to early to say for certain if most of the sub forum will see a back loaded winter with snow, or a early start to the severe season, best guess though would be snow in the northern areas and possible severe in the far southern reaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'll take the risk of MJO going What will February bring us?? Based on the latest runs of the GEM and Euro ensemble means through Feb.10 the biggest feature on the maps appears to be a rather consistent western ridge which should keep the PNA in a + state. Which in my mind would leave us a neutral to slightly negative EPO. I happen to believe that the operational models are to bullish on developing a positive EPO, so therefore I believe we will be in a predominant NW flow. The ensemble means are showing 850mb temps in the source region to be near normal to slightly below normal. Looking at the MJO. The ECMWF from 01/25 thru 2/25 takes the signal through phase 8 all the way into phase 4, as a matter of fact, for this far out in a ensemble means forecast, that is quite a strong signal and may get stronger as time progresses: Temperature trends for each of the phases: For February I expect temps here at MSP to run about -3. That should be driven mostly by night time lows as the ave low temp here raises from 8° to 18° by the end of the month. Daytime highs may be just slightly below normal. For the rest of the sub forum I would expect that Central WI will see about the same as MSP. The Northern OH valley including southern WI should see temps about 1 to 2 below normal, the Central OH valley near normal to slightly below normal and the southern OH valley to be near normal. The UP and Lower MI around -3 to -2. As far as precipitation goes here is what the different MJO phases show: I would expect the first half of February to be rather benign as far as precipitation. However as we transition from phase 3 to phase 4 somewhere around the 20th of the month, based on temp and precip signals I expect the end of February to be rather active. At this time it's to early to say for certain if most of the sub forum will see a back loaded winter with snow, or a early start to the severe season, best guess though would be snow in the northern areas and possible severe in the far southern reaches. I'll take the risk of getting the MJO into phase 4 if it'll set up a gradient pattern and more opportunities for southern stream moisture to get advected into the Lakes. Might produce a number of slop storms but anything's better than the cold and dry the GFS has been painting in fantasy land for a number of runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Will we have another snowy February? Lets hope. If indeed we start the month in a NW flow pattern lets try this clipper thing again, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 February was our coldest month for much of the late 80/early 90s. February 1988 and 1989 were much colder than January in either of those years. Lately, apart from 2003, 2007 and 2008, this has not been the case. GFS shows a warming trend around 8th, but that's fantasy land for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Nice right up Meso... Interesting... I throw the NAEFS out there...for about the first 10 days of Feb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Nice right up Meso... Interesting... I throw the NAEFS out there...for about the first 10 days of Feb... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I would like the MJO to stay in the present zone longer..... Heading into 8 would develope into cold and dry correct.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Pretty decent cold shot showing up around the turn of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Next disappointing clipper, outside MI and OH of course, already on the 12z GEFS at 168 hours...in some form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'll take the risk of MJO going I'll take the risk of getting the MJO into phase 4 if it'll set up a gradient pattern and more opportunities for southern stream moisture to get advected into the Lakes. Might produce a number of slop storms but anything's better than the cold and dry the GFS has been painting in fantasy land for a number of runs now. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 punting until next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 February isn't looking very cold thus far, with the exception of next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 punting until next year why not just kickoff till the next decade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 why not just kickoff till the next decade? Gotta stick to the script, he can't be too over the top, nor can he show excitement if something does show up locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Gotta stick to the script, he can't be too over the top, nor can he show excitement if something does show up locally. Alek is the GLOV's colin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Alek is the GLOV's colin. Care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Care to elaborate? colin was a legendary negative weenie from the Philly area back on Eastern. I don't remember if he got banned before or after the switch to AMWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 colin was a legendary negative weenie from the Philly area back on Eastern. I don't remember if he got banned before or after the switch to AMWX. Ahh yeah sounds bout right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Alex sounds pessimistic at times, but he's been right a lot more than wrong. I'd rather read reality than weenie optimism, as much as it sometimes sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 I knew Colin, and Alek is no Colin. Not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Fine, so he's a watered-down colin. Still annoying as balls though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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