2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[Ellinwood]

hpc analyzed the front in central wv at 15z so that's probably still the front. don't see why it would slow down a lot.

 

I'm not saying it will or won't happen... I just wouldn't write off the solution yet. Heck, maybe we get two lines (to be disappointed in ). All I know is the latest hi-res models that I use regularly (HRRR, RAP, the NMM/ARW stuff on e-wall) have kept the idea of the later line coming through even after this initial push, so it's still on the table.

[Ian]

I'm not saying it will or won't happen... I just wouldn't write off the solution yet. Heck, maybe we get two lines (to be disappointed in ). All I know is the latest hi-res models that I use regularly (HRRR, RAP, the NMM/ARW stuff on e-wall) have kept the idea of the later line coming through even after this initial push, so it's still on the table.

 

i havent looked at anything really this morning. my guess is the first line will be here earlier than believed and that anything behind it will be lamer than it.

[Ian]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1154 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN PA...A LARGE PART OF

VA/MD...WASHINGTON DC...PORTIONS OF ERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20...

VALID 301754Z - 301930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT IS DIMINISHING ACROSS REMAINING VALID

PORTIONS OF WW20. THE SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE

AREA FROM THE SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DISCUSSION...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE

SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND THAT ACCOMPANIES A NE/SW-ORIENTED WIND-SHIFT

AXIS FROM S-CNTRL PA INTO SWRN VA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. REGIONAL

RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN

ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES TO OUTRUN STRONGER FORCING

FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT LOCATED WELL TO THE W. WHILE A

MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED BY

MODEST LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LEADING THE BAND...IT SHOULD NOT

BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED 35-45-KT WIND GUSTS IN THE

NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...BY THIS EVENING...ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE

CONVECTION CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS MAY EXTEND NEWD

INTO PARTS OF THE MCD AREA -- ESPECIALLY FROM S-CNTRL VA INTO SERN

PA -- WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..COHEN.. 01/30/2013

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 37138159 37848067 38567980 39467893 40577776 40717712

40577638 40087598 39017622 37397742 36807878 36607986

36648130 37138159

[Ian]

always love when hpc and spc dont seem to coordinate. the front is "well west".. why did hpc analyze one in central wv then?

[Ellinwood]

always love when hpc and spc dont seem to coordinate. the front is "well west".. why did hpc analyze one in central wv then?

 

"One man's cold front is another man's OFB" I guess

[Kmlwx]

"One man's cold front is another man's OFB" I guess

Yeah that was my guess - wind shift is being analyzed as a front I guess. 

[Ian]

meh.. ill go down with the ship at this pt.

 

if im wrong im wrong. i don't see this band totally dying before it gets into the area tho at current dc might get screwed (surprise).

[MDstorm]

^ bust

At least DC is consistent no matter what the threat. 

 

MDstorm

[Deck Pic]

meh.. ill go down with the ship at this pt.

 

if im wrong im wrong. i don't see this band totally dying before it gets into the area tho at current dc might get screwed (surprise).

 

Isn't there going to be a secondary band later this evening or is that the main band?

[Kmlwx]

Feels pretty soupy out there. 

[Ian]

Isn't there going to be a secondary band later this evening or is that the main band?

 

I dunno. I guess there could be but if this one makes it through the area it's going to ruin what little we have going for us. Still no sign of its demise and its coming out of the hills now. My guess is it's the main show locally and we get more rain after.

[MN Transplant]

Yeah that was my guess - wind shift is being analyzed as a front I guess. 

 

I'm confused.  The main surface front is in Indiana.

[Ian]

I'm confused.  The main surface front is in Indiana.

 

All the svr weather is along the first front tho.

[mappy]

Wind has picked up considerably here

[TUweathermanDD]

Wind has picked up considerably here

I can vouch for that, increased quite a bit.

[H2O]

sun!

[Ian]

Band is closing in on the point of no return. Given a 20 degree model bust yesterday I'm not sold they're correct today.

[Mrs.J]

It is looking like this line will be here close to or just after school dismissal. Will have to see what happens.

[Ian]

HGR with a 39 mph gust

 

TAKE COVER NOW!!1!!

[Mrs.J]

Weird it is sunnier out than it has been all day with this line pushing in.

[Ellinwood]

Stupid pre-squall squall... at least I'll be awake for this one.

[Ian]

Looks like the derecho

[yoda]

I thought LWX was doing a SPEC 18z sounding?  I dont see it on the SPC page

[Mrs.J]

Line to my NW. The wind is howling outside. Current temp is 69.

 

[TUweathermanDD]

Just got awfully bright over here in Dundalk, 67 degrees. 

[snowdude]

I still think the main event will be tonight. These initial storms aren't on any model. We aren't supposed to get any actual downpours until later this evening and after midnight. So either the models are way off or we are still going to get big storms with wind and rain tonight. I'm going with the latter.

[Ian]

I still think the main event will be tonight. These initial storms aren't on any model. We aren't supposed to get any actual downpours until later this evening and after midnight. So either the models are way off or we are still going to get big storms with wind and rain tonight. I'm going with the latter.

 

congrats on your bust

[MN Transplant]

All the svr weather is along the first front tho.

 

I guess what I'm confused about is people saying that it is moving faster than modeled.  It is not.  What looks to be happening is this initial sliver of a line has held on longer than was modeled.  Happens with some regularity, but doesn't really affect what's lined up for midnight, especially since that is not surface forced.

[wxmeddler]

43 kt gust at Camp David.

[Ian]

someone forgot to tell hgr no downpours till later

 

SPECI KHGR 301843Z 32022G28KT 1 3/4SM +RA SCT020 BKN039 OVC065 18/15 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 18030/1801 VIS 1V5 RAB36 PRESRR P0007