Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 hpc analyzed the front in central wv at 15z so that's probably still the front. don't see why it would slow down a lot. I'm not saying it will or won't happen... I just wouldn't write off the solution yet. Heck, maybe we get two lines (to be disappointed in ). All I know is the latest hi-res models that I use regularly (HRRR, RAP, the NMM/ARW stuff on e-wall) have kept the idea of the later line coming through even after this initial push, so it's still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm not saying it will or won't happen... I just wouldn't write off the solution yet. Heck, maybe we get two lines (to be disappointed in ). All I know is the latest hi-res models that I use regularly (HRRR, RAP, the NMM/ARW stuff on e-wall) have kept the idea of the later line coming through even after this initial push, so it's still on the table. i havent looked at anything really this morning. my guess is the first line will be here earlier than believed and that anything behind it will be lamer than it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CST WED JAN 30 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN PA...A LARGE PART OF VA/MD...WASHINGTON DC...PORTIONS OF ERN WV CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20... VALID 301754Z - 301930Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE SVR THREAT IS DIMINISHING ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW20. THE SVR THREAT MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA FROM THE SW LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DISCUSSION...THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BAND THAT ACCOMPANIES A NE/SW-ORIENTED WIND-SHIFT AXIS FROM S-CNTRL PA INTO SWRN VA CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES TO OUTRUN STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONT LOCATED WELL TO THE W. WHILE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINTAINED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION LEADING THE BAND...IT SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED 35-45-KT WIND GUSTS IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...BY THIS EVENING...ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SRN APPALACHIANS MAY EXTEND NEWD INTO PARTS OF THE MCD AREA -- ESPECIALLY FROM S-CNTRL VA INTO SERN PA -- WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..COHEN.. 01/30/2013 ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37138159 37848067 38567980 39467893 40577776 40717712 40577638 40087598 39017622 37397742 36807878 36607986 36648130 37138159 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 always love when hpc and spc dont seem to coordinate. the front is "well west".. why did hpc analyze one in central wv then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 always love when hpc and spc dont seem to coordinate. the front is "well west".. why did hpc analyze one in central wv then? "One man's cold front is another man's OFB" I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 "One man's cold front is another man's OFB" I guess Yeah that was my guess - wind shift is being analyzed as a front I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 meh.. ill go down with the ship at this pt. if im wrong im wrong. i don't see this band totally dying before it gets into the area tho at current dc might get screwed (surprise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ^ bust At least DC is consistent no matter what the threat. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 meh.. ill go down with the ship at this pt. if im wrong im wrong. i don't see this band totally dying before it gets into the area tho at current dc might get screwed (surprise). Isn't there going to be a secondary band later this evening or is that the main band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Feels pretty soupy out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Isn't there going to be a secondary band later this evening or is that the main band? I dunno. I guess there could be but if this one makes it through the area it's going to ruin what little we have going for us. Still no sign of its demise and its coming out of the hills now. My guess is it's the main show locally and we get more rain after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah that was my guess - wind shift is being analyzed as a front I guess. I'm confused. The main surface front is in Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm confused. The main surface front is in Indiana. All the svr weather is along the first front tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Wind has picked up considerably here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Wind has picked up considerably here I can vouch for that, increased quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Band is closing in on the point of no return. Given a 20 degree model bust yesterday I'm not sold they're correct today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 It is looking like this line will be here close to or just after school dismissal. Will have to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 HGR with a 39 mph gust TAKE COVER NOW!!1!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Weird it is sunnier out than it has been all day with this line pushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Stupid pre-squall squall... at least I'll be awake for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Looks like the derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I thought LWX was doing a SPEC 18z sounding? I dont see it on the SPC page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Line to my NW. The wind is howling outside. Current temp is 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Just got awfully bright over here in Dundalk, 67 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I still think the main event will be tonight. These initial storms aren't on any model. We aren't supposed to get any actual downpours until later this evening and after midnight. So either the models are way off or we are still going to get big storms with wind and rain tonight. I'm going with the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I still think the main event will be tonight. These initial storms aren't on any model. We aren't supposed to get any actual downpours until later this evening and after midnight. So either the models are way off or we are still going to get big storms with wind and rain tonight. I'm going with the latter. congrats on your bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 All the svr weather is along the first front tho. I guess what I'm confused about is people saying that it is moving faster than modeled. It is not. What looks to be happening is this initial sliver of a line has held on longer than was modeled. Happens with some regularity, but doesn't really affect what's lined up for midnight, especially since that is not surface forced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 43 kt gust at Camp David. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 someone forgot to tell hgr no downpours till later SPECI KHGR 301843Z 32022G28KT 1 3/4SM +RA SCT020 BKN039 OVC065 18/15 A2959 RMK AO2 PK WND 18030/1801 VIS 1V5 RAB36 PRESRR P0007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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