2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[yoda]

STW just went up in SW PA and Garrett MD till 4pm

[WinterWxLuvr]

LOL that a severe thread has more pages than the Feb long range disco.  What amazing times we live in.

[chris87]

lol what a crappy AFD from lwx

 

 

THE WARM FRONT AND A FEW MILES INTOTHE COLD SIDE ARE TEXTBOOK PRIME AREAS FOR TORNADOES. PROGRESSIONOF THIS WARM FRONT TODAY WILL BE KEY.

 

 

this is probably my favorite part....not even sure why I even bother sticking up for LWX....the only thing that could "spin up" today (however, unlikely) are in the qlcs...

[Ian]

Yeah that's mostly what I was referring to. I don't get why they even focused on that.

[Subtropics]

Looks to be arriving early? This thing is entering WV as we speak...

[clueless]

Looks to be arriving early? This thing is entering WV as we speak...

Just observation that wind is really kicking up here. This will be interesting.

[yoda]

Looks weird reading one of PBZ's warnings... severe showers

[Subtropics]

Feels very humid.

 

Even more crazy then the temp swing, the dew point was about 60 degrees lower just last week! I think this is why it is so noticeable.

[yoda]

64/58 at IAD at 9 am... but 57/53 at DCA.  Looks like there are peaks of sunshine as well around the area

[mappy]

64/58 at IAD at 9 am... but 57/53 at DCA.  Looks like there are peaks of sunshine as well around the area

Sun is trying to come out here

[Grothar of Herndon]

Just observation that wind is really kicking up here. This will be interesting.

Strong winds in Herndon as well. I hope the severe stuff holds off until after rush hour.

[SeminoleSullivan]

Sun is trying to come out here

 

If you love the severe stuff, then let the sun shine. I wouldn't be surprised to see criteria for a wind warning go up tonight. 40-50kt gusts seem reasonable with this system.

[North Balti Zen]

Sun is trying to come out here

 

Leesburg will be along to troll this at some point...

[mattie g]

Sun obs!!!

[Ellinwood]

Wheeling, WV gusted to 62 mph as the squall came through:

KHLG 301440Z 25027G54KT 1/2SM R03/2200VP6000FT +RA SQ SCT031 BKN055 OVC100 16/12 A2951 RMK AO2 PK WND 26054/1436 WSHFT 1426 RAB20 PRESRR P0010

 

Charlestown, WV gusted to 53 mph:

 

KCRW 301441Z 28024G46KT 4SM +RA FEW001 BKN020 OVC035 17/13 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 28046/1438 WSHFT 1426 RAB32 PRESRR CB DSNT SW-NW P0000

[yoda]

FFW issued for N VA, all of MD, and the I-81 corridor

[Ian]

Sun obs!!!

I don't think sun matters much if at all

[arlwx]

Severe thunderstorm watch to the west.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 17/20

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV

1013 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

WVC001-007-015-017-019-021-033-041-047-067-075-081-083-091-097-

101-109-302100-

/O.CON.KRLX.SV.A.0020.000000T0000Z-130130T2100Z/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS

AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 17 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA

BRAXTON CLAY GILMER

NICHOLAS WEBSTER

IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

BARBOUR DODDRIDGE HARRISON

LEWIS POCAHONTAS RANDOLPH

TAYLOR UPSHUR

IN SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

FAYETTE MCDOWELL RALEIGH

WYOMING

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...BECKLEY...BELINGTON...BRIDGEPORT...

BUCKHANNON...BURNSVILLE...CLARKSBURG...CLAY...COWEN...

CRAIGSVILLE...ELKINS...FAYETTEVILLE...FLATWOODS...GARY...

GASSAWAY...GLENVILLE...GRAFTON...MARLINTON...MONTGOMERY...

MULLENS...OAK HILL...OCEANA...PHILIPPI...PINEVILLE...RICHWOOD...

SUMMERSVILLE...SUTTON...WAR...WELCH...WEST UNION AND WESTON.

$$

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 20

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

1010 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013

MDC023-PAC003-005-007-019-051-059-063-125-129-WVC049-061-077-093-

302100-

/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.A.0020.000000T0000Z-130130T2100Z/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 20 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS

AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN MARYLAND THIS WATCH INCLUDES 1 COUNTY

IN WESTERN MARYLAND

GARRETT

IN PENNSYLVANIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 9 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA

ALLEGHENY BEAVER FAYETTE

GREENE WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND

IN WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

ARMSTRONG BUTLER INDIANA

IN WEST VIRGINIA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

MARION MONONGALIA PRESTON

TUCKER

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ALIQUIPPA...AMBRIDGE...APOLLO...

BEAVER...BEAVER FALLS...BUTLER...CALIFORNIA...CANONSBURG...

CHARLEROI...CONNELLSVILLE...DAVIS...DONORA...FAIRDALE...

FAIRMONT...FORD CITY...FREEPORT...GRANTSVILLE...GREENSBURG...

INDIANA...JEANNETTE...KINGWOOD...KITTANNING...LATROBE...

LEECHBURG...MCMURRAY...MONACA...MONESSEN...MONONGAHELA...

MORGANTOWN...NEW KENSINGTON...OAKLAND MD...OHIOPYLE...PARSONS...

PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...TERRA ALTA...THOMAS...UNIONTOWN...

WASHINGTON...WAYNESBURG AND ZELIENOPLE

[yoda]

watch fail

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0096.html

[Ian]

The axis of tornadoes will save us!

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks weird reading one of PBZ's warnings... severe showers

Limited lightning, but there have been several reports of wind damage in the Pittsburgh metro region with the line.

 

Sky is opening up a bit here, even saw a patch of blue, perhaps enough to re-energize things?

[Ian]

Pretty sure this isn't coming thru late eve

[yoda]

Pretty sure this isn't coming thru late eve

 

So not at 1 am like the 06z NAM said?

[Ian]

So not at 1 am like the 06z NAM said?

 

the 21z radar sim looks pretty much like current radar... so 6 hours faster?

[Ian]

LWG called the murk today

[weatherwiz]

The wind potential, at least into VA looks fairly impressive, very strong winds just above the surface and forecast soundings have no inversion in place.  What usually seems to happen though with QLCS', at least up this way is your strongest winds are just out ahead of the main line so I could see that being the case.  Once you get into the heavy rains that will rapidly stabilize the atmosphere and will lead to the development of an inversion just above the surface.  I could see some 55-65 mph gusts...maybe even an isolated 70 mph gusts if the line is able to maintain itself.  

 

While the potential for an isolated tornado is certainly there this threat continues to look rather low.  Even within the QLCS where embedded meso's are possible shear becomes rather unidirectional and the speed shear is so fast anything that tries to form could get dissolved rather quickly.  

[Ian]

If there is a 70mph wind gust around here ill never post in a severe thread again.

[ravensrule]

LWG called the murk today

 

What's their threat level for this storm?.

[weatherwiz]

If there is a 70mph wind gust around here ill never post in a severe thread again.

 

I doubt you see 70 mph

 

Talking further south of you

[ravensrule]

If there is a 70mph wind gust around here ill never post in a severe thread again.

 

Im holding you to that. So around here is Baltimore/DC/Northern VA?.