Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion


Kmlwx

Recommended Posts

They'll be elevated

Wait till spring

Even so, wouldn't that be a bigger threat to bring down the winds from the 850mb to 925mb level?  The storms in S IL/SW IN have no to lil CAPE, if any, and they are producing heavy heavy winds

 

 

 

[ian]I will root for injuries tho[/ian]

 

Already are injuries from the winds per 911 in Galatia IL

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Even so, wouldn't that be a bigger threat to bring down the winds from the 850mb to 925mb level?  The storms in S IL/SW IN have no to lil CAPE, if any, and they are producing heavy heavy winds

 

 

 

 

Already are injuries from the winds per 911 in Galatia IL

I'm not sure comparing that area to what we'll get is that useful. Not totally sold they'll be elevated either but I don't think winds will mix very efficiently if so.. even if not it's borderline probably. I would doubt they put us under 30% at this pt. In fact I might see them shrink it compared to earlier.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

IF we can warm up, that's going to be a awesome shelf cloud.

i doubt it... the best line might not even be right at the front edge. it's going to be a dark boring mess mostly. leesburg04 will be trolling us on thursday morning.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

i doubt it... the best line might not even be right at the front edge. it's going to be a dark boring mess mostly. leesburg04 will be trolling us on thursday morning.

 I'm personally thinking a NCFRB...

Much like this event: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2005/29Sep/

NARR: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0929.php

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SLGT risk...  5% hail DCA to MRB and off to the SW... 2% TOR same area... 15% wind for all (30% down by CHO)

 

..CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/MID-ATLANTIC  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY  
TODAY AS A POWERFUL 100 TO 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD INTO THE  
OH AND TN VALLEYS. A SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE ERN  
EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY EXTENDING SSWWD  
INTO CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN. THIS SQUALL-LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE  
VIRGINIA'S BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO  
REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND VIRGINIA'S...DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG.  
THIS SHOULD ENABLE THE SQUALL-LINE TO BE MAINTAINED THIS AFTERNOON  
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE.  
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH BOWING  
LINE-SEGMENTS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE GREATER THREAT  
SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL-LINE. THE  
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED NWD ACROSS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure how much of a tornado threat will exist today as the main storm mode will be linear.  Obviously, there could be some embedded supercells and you certainly will have to watch for the cells where any line segments are broken up.  Anyways, I think today could be quite a convective wind event.  Dcape values are already in the 500-800 J/KG range and these values should remain steady through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon/evening hours.  There is some elevated instability as well with 250 J/KG of MUcape in some areas.

 

Yesterday turned out to be quite the wind producing event and I would expect today to be fairly similar.  I wouldn't be shocked to see 30% hatching expanded northward, especially if convective trends continue to look more favorable later on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure how much of a tornado threat will exist today as the main storm mode will be linear.  Obviously, there could be some embedded supercells and you certainly will have to watch for the cells where any line segments are broken up.  Anyways, I think today could be quite a convective wind event.  Dcape values are already in the 500-800 J/KG range and these values should remain steady through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon/evening hours.  There is some elevated instability as well with 250 J/KG of MUcape in some areas.

 

Yesterday turned out to be quite the wind producing event and I would expect today to be fairly similar.  I wouldn't be shocked to see 30% hatching expanded northward, especially if convective trends continue to look more favorable later on.

What would be your northern limit guess to the 30%?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I should also add...have to watch that line as it may begin to further outrun the best forcing from the power MLJ and ULJ streaks...if that happens the wind potential could be limited as forcing would weaken.  Having lines in these high sheared environments do have a tendency to start outrunning the stronger dynamics as they move into the eastern US.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...