yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 They'll be elevated Wait till spring Even so, wouldn't that be a bigger threat to bring down the winds from the 850mb to 925mb level? The storms in S IL/SW IN have no to lil CAPE, if any, and they are producing heavy heavy winds [ian]I will root for injuries tho[/ian] Already are injuries from the winds per 911 in Galatia IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 00z GFS LCL at KIAD for 00z Thurs is 95m and at KDCA its 122m IF we can warm up, that's going to be a awesome shelf cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I will root for injuries tho wat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Even so, wouldn't that be a bigger threat to bring down the winds from the 850mb to 925mb level? The storms in S IL/SW IN have no to lil CAPE, if any, and they are producing heavy heavy winds Already are injuries from the winds per 911 in Galatia IL I'm not sure comparing that area to what we'll get is that useful. Not totally sold they'll be elevated either but I don't think winds will mix very efficiently if so.. even if not it's borderline probably. I would doubt they put us under 30% at this pt. In fact I might see them shrink it compared to earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 IF we can warm up, that's going to be a awesome shelf cloud.i doubt it... the best line might not even be right at the front edge. it's going to be a dark boring mess mostly. leesburg04 will be trolling us on thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 i doubt it... the best line might not even be right at the front edge. it's going to be a dark boring mess mostly. leesburg04 will be trolling us on thursday morning. Do I sense a meh coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Do I sense a meh coming? eh, it's january... hopefully we'll keep this active pattern going to our northwest.. we seem to be stuck in it lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 i doubt it... the best line might not even be right at the front edge. it's going to be a dark boring mess mostly. leesburg04 will be trolling us on thursday morning. I'm personally thinking a NCFRB... Much like this event: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2005/29Sep/ NARR: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0929.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'm personally thinking a NCFRB... Much like this event: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/features/2005/29Sep/ NARR: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2005/us0929.php Yeah.. Probably. I don't know specifics about that event but I'd still not expect many svr reports around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 For prosperity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 ^ 90 kts at 850mb... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SLGT risk... 5% hail DCA to MRB and off to the SW... 2% TOR same area... 15% wind for all (30% down by CHO) ..CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/MID-ATLANTIC AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AS A POWERFUL 100 TO 125 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. A SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY EXTENDING SSWWD INTO CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN. THIS SQUALL-LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE VIRGINIA'S BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS AND VIRGINIA'S...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG. THIS SHOULD ENABLE THE SQUALL-LINE TO BE MAINTAINED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION AS SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL-LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED NWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Right on the edge of the 5% tor risk. I wonder if they'll upgrade the risk for high winds further south.. Edit: Just read the discussion again. No mention of an upgrade at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Temps in the zone forecasts keep going up for tomorrow... this morning it was low 60s around DC - now its around 70 this evening. Now low 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 03z SREFs highlighting 21z as best chance for sup/tor threat.. if there is one around here. And 06z NAM says overnight storms for you... 1-2 am arrival of the QLCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 For prosperity: coldfront13113_95kts850mb.gif Sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 lol - I think it's coming early...already tornado watches into WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 LWX AFD mentions tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Anyone see the 00z NMM model? It peters the line out just to our west only to regenerate it into a bowing structure that surges through our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 LWX AFD mentions tornadoes. Saw that... what is a horizontal vorticy roll? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not sure how much of a tornado threat will exist today as the main storm mode will be linear. Obviously, there could be some embedded supercells and you certainly will have to watch for the cells where any line segments are broken up. Anyways, I think today could be quite a convective wind event. Dcape values are already in the 500-800 J/KG range and these values should remain steady through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon/evening hours. There is some elevated instability as well with 250 J/KG of MUcape in some areas. Yesterday turned out to be quite the wind producing event and I would expect today to be fairly similar. I wouldn't be shocked to see 30% hatching expanded northward, especially if convective trends continue to look more favorable later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Saw that... what is a horizontal vorticy roll? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horizontal_convective_rolls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not sure how much of a tornado threat will exist today as the main storm mode will be linear. Obviously, there could be some embedded supercells and you certainly will have to watch for the cells where any line segments are broken up. Anyways, I think today could be quite a convective wind event. Dcape values are already in the 500-800 J/KG range and these values should remain steady through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon/evening hours. There is some elevated instability as well with 250 J/KG of MUcape in some areas. Yesterday turned out to be quite the wind producing event and I would expect today to be fairly similar. I wouldn't be shocked to see 30% hatching expanded northward, especially if convective trends continue to look more favorable later on. What would be your northern limit guess to the 30%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I should also add...have to watch that line as it may begin to further outrun the best forcing from the power MLJ and ULJ streaks...if that happens the wind potential could be limited as forcing would weaken. Having lines in these high sheared environments do have a tendency to start outrunning the stronger dynamics as they move into the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 What would be your northern limit guess to the 30%? I could see the 30% area getting further north into northern VA or so but I could even see southern MD get into the northern extent of the 30% probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gocaps Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Saw that... what is a horizontal vorticy roll? Been dying to try that at my local sushi place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'll be starting class in about 10 minutes but I'll try to look more after class as well. I'm real interested in this setup, pretty anomalous for late January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 For prosperity: We're all getting paid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Wiz - I could see some embedded mesos in the QLCS due to the high SRH values and the low level jet... think that's where the spin-ups could come from... but as you said, should be few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 lol what a crappy AFD from lwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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