Subtropics Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 In all seriousness I do think temps and dews will be a bit higher than forecast. Odds we get a watch tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 12z GFS insists on nil CAPE for most of us... but 12z NAM insists on us having a weak CAPE environment (100-200 J/KG of MLCAPE and SBCAPE along with slightly negative LI) at DCA from 18z to 03z. NAM seems to be suggesting that a few of the storms could be surface based while the GFS says no. Interestingly, the GFS has the higher SRH numbers at both 1km and 3km than the NAM does on their 12z runs. SREF is *slightly* more bullish than yesterday but it disappears heading into the evening and now the line is progged fairly late. My guess is it won't end up being as late as the NAM but who knows. I'm expecting little to no CAPE of worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Just getting in from class - any thoughts on the wind threat? Those winds are really intense at 850...Not really thinking any tor risk. I could see a 30 if the 850 winds at DCA pan out -- 12z NAM is 80 kts and 12z GFS was 100 kts. How much that can get to the surface is the real question. SPC did state the warm sector would have a 65-75 kt southerly LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Just getting in from class - any thoughts on the wind threat? Those winds are really intense at 850...Not really thinking any tor risk. i dunno.. it's about as strong as you ever see that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 SREF is *slightly* more bullish than yesterday but it disappears heading into the evening and now the line is progged fairly late. My guess is it won't end up being as late as the NAM but who knows. I'm expecting little to no CAPE of worth. [pic snipped] Agree... I am just wondering if there gets to be even weak instability that is surface based if a storm would be able to tap into a conducive environment for a spin-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 ARW between 8 and 9pm, NMM between 10 and 11pm (closer to op NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 i dunno.. it's about as strong as you ever see that low. Yeah, agree. Pretty impressive. I still think your thin line idea will be just fine - probably have an isolated gust to severe. Lots of 40-50mph gusts I'd assume. Not sure the timing of the line will matter a ton given that there's pretty much no CAPE anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 One thing I always seem to notice (maybe I'm imagining it) - the models like to slow things down a lot of times and then when the actual event comes, the line ends up coming through pretty quick/early. Almost like the models over compensating. But in years past (more in the summer) I've always noticed a tendency for the models to keep slowing down and then they do it a bit too much compared to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 DPs are already around 50 in the area... and winds are expected to be strong from the south tomorrow per the latest zones... gusts to 40 mph possible outside of the showers/storms... I could see DPs approach 60 easily as moisture is advected in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Woo storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 ARW between 8 and 9pm, NMM between 10 and 11pm (closer to op NAM). 18z NAM even later, midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 Already been mentioned but I just got a look at BUFKIT on my computer. GFS has 66-74 knot winds like 2,000 feet up. Can't imagine it will be that hard to mix down winds that close to the surface. 40-50kts might be easily attainable under heavier showers. The 100 knot winds just over 4,000 feet are dang impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z NAM even later, midnight. LWX afternoon AFD says 10pm to 1am for east of BR for damaging wind threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 18z NAM continues to insist we get a very weakly unstable environment tomorrow evening into tomorrow night with MLCAPE/SBCAPE around 150 J/KG. 0-6 km shear is 60 to 70 kts and SRH goes to a ridiculous level around 03z at KIAD -- 1km is 565 and 3km is 815... SWEAT is ~465. LCL heights are extremely low -- 350-400m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Temps in the zone forecasts keep going up for tomorrow... this morning it was low 60s around DC - now its around 70 this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Temps in the zone forecasts keep going up for tomorrow... this morning it was low 60s around DC - now its around 70 this evening. Makes sense given today's temperature bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Makes sense given today's temperature bust. Agree... but clouds may halt the temp rise. I see a tor watch went up in KY/IL area... winds to 80 mph mentioned. Also, MD 79 sounds like a good prognosticator for our area tomorrow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I love this much more than snow. Just relaying my appreciation for this! Anyway I too have noticed that lines tend to come in earlier than forecast. I think it was in the fall the line was forecast to come in around 7pm and it rolled through around 2:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Agree... but clouds may halt the temp rise. I see a tor watch went up in KY/IL area... winds to 80 mph mentioned. Also, MD 79 sounds like a good prognosticator for our area tomorrow IMO I bet if anything though we get a STW. I wouldn't count out not even being included in a watch. We'll see I suppose. This early in the season it's hard for me to be optimistic on widespread severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I bet if anything though we get a STW. I wouldn't count out not even being included in a watch. We'll see I suppose. This early in the season it's hard for me to be optimistic on widespread severe. Agree on STW, more was mentioning MD 79 cause it states how weak instability is but the jet and shear gives them the svr threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Agree on STW, more was mentioning MD 79 cause it states how weak instability is but the jet and shear gives them the svr threat agree - I bet even given the models sliding the time back, we see some kind of line roll through here between 6 and 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 00z NAM at KIAD has a very weak unstable sounding... SRH again is very high - 760+ 3km SRH and 550 1km SRH... LCL height is 270m and 0-6km shear is a flying 80 kts. Looks to be 80 kts at the 850mb level. KDCA looks similar, with 3km SRH 700+ and 1km SRH 500+... 0-6 km shear is also 80kts with SWEAT 460 and a LCL 336m (all this between 00z and 03z or 8-11pm tomorrow night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 00z GFS LCL at KIAD for 00z Thurs is 95m and at KDCA its 122m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Storms in S IL really look nasty... KPAH issuing STWs left and right... line has winds in excess of 80 mph and injuries reported Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 Storms in S IL really look nasty... KPAH issuing STWs left and right... line has winds in excess of 80 mph and injuries reported Should I be cautiously excited about our odds for tomorrow? I mean those areas obviously got more unstable than we will - but it's coming at a similar time of night for them that it will be for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Should I be cautiously excited about our odds for tomorrow? I mean those areas obviously got more unstable than we will - but it's coming at a similar time of night for them that it will be for us. I will be up for the new Day 1 at 1 am SPC meso shows little to no instability out there at all right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 30, 2013 Author Share Posted January 30, 2013 I will be up for the new Day 1 at 1 am SPC meso shows little to no instability out there at all right now I'll probably fall asleep before it. I'll assume that if I see a row of posts from you in the morning that it was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 They'll be elevated Wait till spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I'll probably fall asleep before it. I'll assume that if I see a row of posts from you in the morning that it was good. I will guess 30 wind, 5 tor, and 0 hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I will root for injuries tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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