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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion


Kmlwx

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Not that its likely... but with the SRH through the roof, couldn't we see an isolated weak spinup somewhere? Or since there is basically nil CAPE (barring latest models showing 100 to 200 J/KG) the tor threat is zero?

I guess SPC could throw us a token 2% but hard to see why we'd get anything else than a squall line in this setup.
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It's tricky. If we actually get solidly into the warm sector we might have some potential.. Mainly wind. The inversion is less or even non existent on recent runs up into the DC area.. Which would at least allow some wids to mix down. I could see 30% wind as far north as DC if we max potential tho 15% should cut it. S Va and NC have a bit better odds probably.

I agree with this and with the other post about the 2% tornado risk that's not really a risk.

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I could see a 30 wind tomorrow for us... the winds are pretty strong right off the deck at 850 and 925... wouldn't be surprised to see a 2% tor risk because the SRH is pretty high.  Not expecting a tornado threat up here... but if a storm could get surface based, wouldn't be surprised to see a weak spin-up.

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lol. if this was april we'd be rockin'

i dunno.. this warm sector is pretty nasty.. still think we're not going to get anything out ahead of the main band

 

Just getting in from class - any thoughts on the wind threat? Those winds are really intense at 850...Not really thinking any tor risk. 

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lol. if this was april we'd be rockin'

i dunno.. this warm sector is pretty nasty.. still think we're not going to get anything out ahead of the main band

 

12z GFS insists on nil CAPE for most of us... but 12z NAM insists on us having a weak CAPE environment (100-200 J/KG of MLCAPE and SBCAPE along with slightly negative LI) at DCA from 18z to 03z.  NAM seems to be suggesting that a few of the storms could be surface based while the GFS says no.  Interestingly, the GFS has the higher SRH numbers at both 1km and 3km than the NAM does on their 12z runs. 

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