yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not that its likely... but with the SRH through the roof, couldn't we see an isolated weak spinup somewhere? Or since there is basically nil CAPE (barring latest models showing 100 to 200 J/KG) the tor threat is zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not that its likely... but with the SRH through the roof, couldn't we see an isolated weak spinup somewhere? Or since there is basically nil CAPE (barring latest models showing 100 to 200 J/KG) the tor threat is zero?I guess SPC could throw us a token 2% but hard to see why we'd get anything else than a squall line in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 I guess SPC could throw us a token 2% but hard to see why we'd get anything else than a squall line in this setup. We need to start the season off strong - 45% wind or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I better be picking up small twigs and sticks from this or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's tricky. If we actually get solidly into the warm sector we might have some potential.. Mainly wind. The inversion is less or even non existent on recent runs up into the DC area.. Which would at least allow some wids to mix down. I could see 30% wind as far north as DC if we max potential tho 15% should cut it. S Va and NC have a bit better odds probably. I agree with this and with the other post about the 2% tornado risk that's not really a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Hopefully early season severe isn't comparable to early season snow in terms of how the rest of the season will turn out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 dc split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 lol winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Its currently 38 in Chicago and there is a STW just to their SE (Gary IN area).... interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Meh... maybe 1730 we will get invited for our first SLGT risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 What a shame that our instability isn't good. Sounding from ROA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 In little rock under the 45/15 area for wind/tor. Should get interesting later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 In little rock under the 45/15 area for wind/tor. Should get interesting later this evening. Chasing? Good luck and stay safe if you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 models have pushed back the main line a bit.. not that it matters a ton given no cape etc but it probably matters at least a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Tomorrow is senior skip day, so I may as well go south and chase with my friend. Seems like SW VA would be the best place to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Tomorrow is senior skip day, so I may as well go south and chase with my friend. Seems like SW VA would be the best place to go. Meh. This is not good chase territory down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm just using it as a practice run for a 2 week trip I'm going to take over spring break to the Plains to check procedures and equipment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 What is fun (atleast I think so) is find a nice mountain overlook that looks to the west. I got some nice video and photos of approaching storms last year doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 You're not going to see anything tomorrow even in the best territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Yeah. I was wondering when he said he's going to chase. It's gonna be a fast moving line of rain and wind. Gas is too much to chase rain. Wait for a better event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It's practice.... Just a test run. We just want to get a feel of the driving, using the technology we have, and coordinating driving/navigation and taking video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 12Z GFS Bufkit for DCA tomorrow. 100kt 850mb winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 slight risk bumped north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I look good in red. 30% red that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I could see a 30 wind tomorrow for us... the winds are pretty strong right off the deck at 850 and 925... wouldn't be surprised to see a 2% tor risk because the SRH is pretty high. Not expecting a tornado threat up here... but if a storm could get surface based, wouldn't be surprised to see a weak spin-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Too bad no CAPE... it would be a fun day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 lol. if this was april we'd be rockin' i dunno.. this warm sector is pretty nasty.. still think we're not going to get anything out ahead of the main band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 lol. if this was april we'd be rockin' i dunno.. this warm sector is pretty nasty.. still think we're not going to get anything out ahead of the main band Just getting in from class - any thoughts on the wind threat? Those winds are really intense at 850...Not really thinking any tor risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 lol. if this was april we'd be rockin' i dunno.. this warm sector is pretty nasty.. still think we're not going to get anything out ahead of the main band 12z GFS insists on nil CAPE for most of us... but 12z NAM insists on us having a weak CAPE environment (100-200 J/KG of MLCAPE and SBCAPE along with slightly negative LI) at DCA from 18z to 03z. NAM seems to be suggesting that a few of the storms could be surface based while the GFS says no. Interestingly, the GFS has the higher SRH numbers at both 1km and 3km than the NAM does on their 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Don't worry guys models always underdue CAPE values the day before an event. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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