Ian Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 I kinda doubt we'll see much exciting.. even with lightning as a top end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 stuff up near the md/pa border becoming a bit more 'intense' .. got some 20k tops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 I'm just concerned with the amount of cloud cover that is in place... Strong post to username correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 So when is the next round of crippling severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I heard another delerecho or is it a delrecho, a land hurricane, etc. would be coming later this week. So when is the next round of crippling severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Pattern looked like it would stay active initially but seems to have backed down lately. There are a few smaller systems around maybe.. the Euro likes NW flow stuff by next weekend.. the main look seems to be getting hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 wtf is a delerecho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Ridge of Extreme Boredom starts on Thursday... 500mb winds will struggle to even get to 20 kts there on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 wtf is a delerecho? Some cheesy 90s dance music band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Pattern looked like it would stay active initially but seems to have backed down lately. There are a few smaller systems around maybe.. the Euro likes NW flow stuff by next weekend.. the main look seems to be getting hotter. Heat does look to be on the way after this week's nice airmass. To me it looks like the most stable and prolonged ridge of the season is on the way but I didn't look that close. Afternoon popcorn may be the the focus for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 17, 2013 Author Share Posted June 17, 2013 Ridge of Extreme Boredom starts on Thursday... 500mb winds will struggle to even get to 20 kts there on out. Greaaaaaat - meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I heard another delerecho or is it a delrecho, a land hurricane, etc. would be coming later this week. So when is the next round of crippling severe weather? I've seriously been asked the difference between a derecho and hurricane by some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 The GFS has been hinting at some potential about a week from now for a while. Haven't looked at the Euro much. 12z GFS parks a trough in the lakes for a bit.. few days of action possible. Mid-lvl winds are iffy at least to start.. plus it's way the heck out there, but there is some consistency at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 The GFS has been hinting at some potential about a week from now for a while. Haven't looked at the Euro much. 12z GFS parks a trough in the lakes for a bit.. few days of action possible. Mid-lvl winds are iffy at least to start.. plus it's way the heck out there, but there is some consistency at least. I would say the 00z ECMWF (haven't seen the new run) is definitely threatening for the end of next week in the MId Atlantic. Earlier in the week, the threats will be well NW unless some type of MCS drops in or something. Definitely like the trend in the 700mb temps and the possible trajectory of the remnant EML. The first EML pulse goes well north of us into Quebec / northern New England but the second looks to track into the Mid Atlantic ahead of the trough. No, it doesn't look quite like the Ekster EML graphics for SIG SVR but then again this isn't the New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 Stronger trough crushing the heat late next week on the 12z euro, we'll see what threats arise out ahead of it, if any, on Wed or Thu On a random side note, hell of a ridge retrograding and strengthening across the West later next week. With that drought going on, record heat is almost a certainty in the intermountain, and wouldnt be surprised if places like salt lake city challenge all time highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Thurs and Sat slight risks? Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 Thurs and Sat slight risks? Maybe. I hope...if it has to be this humid might as well be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Thurs and Sat slight risks? Maybe. Shear will be biggest player on whether or not we go Slight. Better stuff's to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I hope...if it has to be this humid might as well be exciting. seems a good shot we'll have some storms around later today but prob mainly or fully sub severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Shear will be biggest player on whether or not we go Slight. Better stuff's to the north. thurs borderline but prob just enough?.. both nam and gfs have vort max passing by afternoon/eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 thurs borderline but prob just enough?.. both nam and gfs have vort max passing by afternoon/eve. Maybe. 20-30 kts throughout the column... enough for some storm potential, though it's all unidirectional out of the SW. CAPE's plenty high (around 2000-2500 J/kg) to kick off storms... I just don't know how organized and how numerous they'll be. Clusters/bowing segments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 SLGT risk for NE MD per latest SPC update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Pity MD MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA / MD / NRN DE / SWRN NJ / SERN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 241748Z - 241845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/SHENANDOAH VALLEY. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET /-13 DEG C H5/ WILL ACT TO PROVIDE SOME LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE EWD MOVING STORMS...SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER THE I-95 CORRIDOR HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90 DEG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...YIELDING MODERATE BUOYANCY /1400 J/KG MLCAPE/ WHEN MODIFYING THE 12Z IAD AND APG RAOBS. ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS MODEST /20-30 KTS/...MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL /ESPECIALLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PA MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET/ AND A FEW POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CORES. IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL AND COLD POOL CONGLOMERATION OCCURS...PERHAPS THE LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT WOULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A LOOSE CONCENTRATION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND REPORTS AND PROMPT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..SMITH/KERR.. 06/24/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 LC going severe for DC on thursday. Claims could be a dangerous day in DC suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 LWX seems to like potential svr for thurs/fri - already in HWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 let's move all talk on this coming period to the other thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40575-june-24-30-storms/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 13, 2013 Author Share Posted July 13, 2013 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0357 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013VALID 161200Z - 211200Z...DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND GFSDETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENTINDICATING GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN WITH A BROADLONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATESDURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ISFORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST LAWRENCEVALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKESAND NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYS 7-8 /FRI JUL 19-SAT JUL20/. A WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACEAHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING UPPERRIDGE...SUGGESTING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVESTORMS TO DEVELOP.THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ANDSURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS. HOWEVER...INA GENERAL SENSE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE THREATWILL INCREASE OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON DAY 6 /THUJUL 18/ THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON D7/FRI JUL 19/ BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES/MIDATLANTIC REGION ON D8/. 00Z ECMWF WIND AND VERTICAL SHEARPARAMETERS ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS PREDICTS...AND ASEXPECTED THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TEND TO OVERLY SMOOTH THE SYNOPTICSCALE DETAILS. SINCE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BEIN THE SECOND HALF OF THE D4-8 PERIOD...PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONALMODEL AGREEMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORECASTS OVERMULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES BEFORE DELINEATING ANY 30% SEVERE PROBABILITYAREAS WITH THIS MUCH LEAD TIME. HOWEVER...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNSMAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SCENARIO WITH RELATIVELY SMALLVARIANCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THE POSSIBILITY OF A MULTI-DAY SEVEREEVENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WILL BECOME MORELIKELY...WEISS.. 07/13/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 13, 2013 Share Posted July 13, 2013 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0357 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013 VALID 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYS 7-8 /FRI JUL 19-SAT JUL 20/. A WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE...SUGGESTING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STORMS TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS. HOWEVER...IN A GENERAL SENSE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON DAY 6 /THU JUL 18/ THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON D7 /FRI JUL 19/ BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES/MID ATLANTIC REGION ON D8/. 00Z ECMWF WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS PREDICTS...AND AS EXPECTED THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TEND TO OVERLY SMOOTH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE DETAILS. SINCE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE D4-8 PERIOD...PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORECASTS OVER MULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES BEFORE DELINEATING ANY 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY AREAS WITH THIS MUCH LEAD TIME. HOWEVER...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SCENARIO WITH RELATIVELY SMALL VARIANCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THE POSSIBILITY OF A MULTI-DAY SEVERE EVENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY. ..WEISS.. 07/13/2013 12z EURO still shows a decent setup for the 19th and 20th.. I assume there's some MCS potential provided we break the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted July 14, 2013 Author Share Posted July 14, 2013 Very close to the day 7 risk area from SPC. Haven't seen a Day 4-8 Outlook like this in a while for this part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 14, 2013 Share Posted July 14, 2013 chasing next sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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