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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Pattern looked like it would stay active initially but seems to have backed down lately. There are a few smaller systems around maybe.. the Euro likes NW flow stuff by next weekend.. the main look seems to be getting hotter.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Pattern looked like it would stay active initially but seems to have backed down lately. There are a few smaller systems around maybe.. the Euro likes NW flow stuff by next weekend.. the main look seems to be getting hotter.

Heat does look to be on the way after this week's nice airmass. To me it looks like the most stable and prolonged ridge of the season is on the way but I didn't look that close. Afternoon popcorn may be the the focus for a bit.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted

I heard another delerecho or is it a delrecho, a land hurricane, etc. would be coming later this week.

So when is the next round of crippling severe weather?

I've seriously been asked the difference between a derecho and hurricane by some people.
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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

The GFS has been hinting at some potential about a week from now for a while. Haven't looked at the Euro much.  12z GFS parks a trough in the lakes for a bit.. few days of action possible. Mid-lvl winds are iffy at least to start.. plus it's way the heck out there, but there is some consistency at least. 

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

The GFS has been hinting at some potential about a week from now for a while. Haven't looked at the Euro much.  12z GFS parks a trough in the lakes for a bit.. few days of action possible. Mid-lvl winds are iffy at least to start.. plus it's way the heck out there, but there is some consistency at least. 

 

I would say the 00z ECMWF (haven't seen the new run) is definitely threatening for the end of next week in the MId Atlantic. Earlier in the week, the threats will be well NW unless some type of MCS drops in or something. Definitely like the trend in the 700mb temps and the possible trajectory of the remnant EML. The first EML pulse goes well north of us into Quebec / northern New England but the second looks to track into the Mid Atlantic ahead of the trough. No, it doesn't look quite like the Ekster EML graphics for SIG SVR but then again this isn't the New England forum. ;)

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

Stronger trough crushing the heat late next week on the 12z euro, we'll see what threats arise out ahead of it, if any, on Wed or Thu

 

On a random side note, hell of a ridge retrograding and strengthening across the West later next week. With that drought going on, record heat is almost a certainty in the intermountain, and wouldnt be surprised if places like salt lake city challenge all time highs. 

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I hope...if it has to be this humid might as well be exciting. 

seems a good shot we'll have some storms around later today but prob mainly or fully sub severe

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Shear will be biggest player on whether or not we go Slight. Better stuff's to the north.

 

thurs borderline but prob just enough?.. both nam and gfs have vort max passing by afternoon/eve.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

thurs borderline but prob just enough?.. both nam and gfs have vort max passing by afternoon/eve.

 

Maybe. 20-30 kts throughout the column... enough for some storm potential, though it's all unidirectional out of the SW. CAPE's plenty high (around 2000-2500 J/kg) to kick off storms... I just don't know how organized and how numerous they'll be. Clusters/bowing segments.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Pity MD

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1201  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  1248 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013    AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA / MD / NRN DE / SWRN NJ / SERN PA    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY     VALID 241748Z - 241845Z    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT    SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF POCKETS  OF WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL GRADUALLY MOVE  TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.    DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS  OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS/SHENANDOAH VALLEY.  A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE  AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET /-13 DEG C H5/ WILL ACT TO PROVIDE SOME  LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS  AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE EWD MOVING STORMS...SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER  THE I-95 CORRIDOR HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90 DEG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE  UPPER 60S...YIELDING MODERATE BUOYANCY /1400 J/KG MLCAPE/ WHEN  MODIFYING THE 12Z IAD AND APG RAOBS.  ALTHOUGH 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR  REMAINS MODEST /20-30 KTS/...MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE  HAIL /ESPECIALLY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE PA MID-LEVEL COLD  POCKET/ AND A FEW POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST  INTENSE CORES.    IF STORMS CAN CONGEAL AND COLD POOL CONGLOMERATION OCCURS...PERHAPS  THE LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT WOULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO A LOOSE  CONCENTRATION OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND REPORTS AND PROMPT A  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.    ..SMITH/KERR.. 06/24/2013  
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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

Posted
  • Author
Posted

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN WITH A BROAD
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYS 7-8 /FRI JUL 19-SAT JUL
20/. A WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER
RIDGE...SUGGESTING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STORMS TO DEVELOP.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS. HOWEVER...IN
A GENERAL SENSE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT
WILL INCREASE OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON DAY 6 /THU
JUL 18/ THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON D7
/FRI JUL 19/ BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES/MID
ATLANTIC REGION ON D8/. 00Z ECMWF WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR
PARAMETERS ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS PREDICTS...AND AS
EXPECTED THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TEND TO OVERLY SMOOTH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DETAILS. SINCE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE
IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE D4-8 PERIOD...PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONAL
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORECASTS OVER
MULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES BEFORE DELINEATING ANY 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY
AREAS WITH THIS MUCH LEAD TIME. HOWEVER...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SCENARIO WITH RELATIVELY SMALL
VARIANCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THE POSSIBILITY OF A MULTI-DAY SEVERE
EVENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY.

..WEISS.. 07/13/2013

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0357 AM CDT SAT JUL 13 2013

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS

DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT

INDICATING GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW PATTERN WITH A BROAD

LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN STATES

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS

FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST LAWRENCE

VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES

AND NERN STATES...ESPECIALLY DURING DAYS 7-8 /FRI JUL 19-SAT JUL

20/. A WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE

AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAKENING UPPER

RIDGE...SUGGESTING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE

STORMS TO DEVELOP.

THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND

SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS. HOWEVER...IN

A GENERAL SENSE THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE THREAT

WILL INCREASE OVER UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES ON DAY 6 /THU

JUL 18/ THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION ON D7

/FRI JUL 19/ BEFORE CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NERN STATES/MID

ATLANTIC REGION ON D8/. 00Z ECMWF WIND AND VERTICAL SHEAR

PARAMETERS ARE CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS PREDICTS...AND AS

EXPECTED THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS TEND TO OVERLY SMOOTH THE SYNOPTIC

SCALE DETAILS. SINCE THE PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TO BE

IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE D4-8 PERIOD...PREFER TO SEE ADDITIONAL

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORECASTS OVER

MULTIPLE MODEL CYCLES BEFORE DELINEATING ANY 30% SEVERE PROBABILITY

AREAS WITH THIS MUCH LEAD TIME. HOWEVER...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS

MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED SCENARIO WITH RELATIVELY SMALL

VARIANCE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...THE POSSIBILITY OF A MULTI-DAY SEVERE

EVENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES WILL BECOME MORE

LIKELY.

..WEISS.. 07/13/2013

 

 

12z EURO still shows a decent setup for the 19th and 20th..  I assume there's some MCS potential provided we break the cap.

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