2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[North Balti Zen]

I like when yoda pastes that stuff in here. One stop shopping.

[mappy]

I like when yoda pastes that stuff in here. One stop shopping.

 

well if he isn't doing that he is posting about how bright it is outside

[HM]

Pretty freakin' awesome placement by the SPC (again): 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_v_20130610_1200.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_v_20130610_1630.gif

 

The tornado outlines yesterday were also very good. We'll see how the assessments go today/this week.

[Subtropics]

Pattern looks to reload? 

[Kmlwx]

Any discussion of Tuesday or future events should go back in here. 

[clueless]

Yeah. I think this pattern is good for some interesting stuff. It may not be epic, but it will be better than 90's, high and dry.

[Ian]

woo storms

 

[Kmlwx]

woo storms

Severe or non severe? 

[Ian]

Severe or non severe?

In that solution prob severe tho that's a much better solution than other runs I've seen

[Kmlwx]

In that solution prob severe tho that's a much better solution than other runs I've seen

 

Only time will tell. 

[Amped]

woo storms

 

gfs_namer_102_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

Based on a one of the GFS's famous imaginary grid-scale feedback lows.

[Ian]

still there.

 

[Ian]

looks like a lower cape event on the gfs but it's arguably a better track (or more normal) for tornado activity etc. becomes another nor'easter.

 

of course the euro doesn't really agree.

[Kmlwx]

LWX this morning (from discussion)

 

 

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS PROGS A SHORTWAVE LOW TO EJECT FROM COLORADO
SUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND TRACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE TRACK
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY SHORTWAVE IN THE 00Z ECMWF (AS WELL AS THE
PREVIOUS 12Z RUN) IS TOO WEAK TO DEVELOP A SURFACE FEATURE.
FURTHERMORE...MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT FEATURE A LOW BELOW
1005MB IN THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THIS GREATLY LIMITS CONFIDENCE
IN THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROM
MENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO.

[Kmlwx]

06z GFS lost it fwiw.

[Kmlwx]

Comparing 0z GFS to 06z to 12z running now, it won't be like 0z but it may be better than 06z for severe weenies. 

[Kmlwx]

Well we get another inch of rain or so on the 12z GFS. 

[Ian]

The GFS and Euro starting to look more alike. Probably minimizes the svr risk tho there might be some particularly south of DC.

[Subtropics]

At least it is going to rain!

[Eskimo Joe]

Keep the rain coming!

[Ian]

storms!

 

[mappy]

Woooo

[Kmlwx]

Woo storms?

 

[wxmeddler]

Woo storms?

 

Derrr...Squall Line!

[Storm Clouds]

It's seems like everyday this year when we have a chance at thunderstorms, it's ruined by too much cloud cover and showers. Seems like the same issue today, but I hope I'm wrong! Where is the cold front located right now?

[wxmeddler]

It's seems like everyday this year when we have a chance at thunderstorms, it's ruined by too much cloud cover and showers. Seems like the same issue today, but I hope I'm wrong! Where is the cold front located right now?

 

There's really no surface front to speak of. The feature today is a mid-level shortwave that is currently over the eastern Ohio valley. This coupled with diurnal instability (sunshine) should provide the trigger for storms. From there storm mode should be isolated with developing cold pools to promote line segments.

[Ian]

I'm mostly looking for lightning today if the timing is right.

[Storm Clouds]

I'm just concerned with the amount of cloud cover that is in place...

[Kmlwx]

I'm just concerned with the amount of cloud cover that is in place...

were you expecting severe? we aren't even under a slight risk - remember we don't need a ton of sun (or any at all sometimes) just to see normal storms!

[Storm Clouds]

were you expecting severe? we aren't even under a slight risk - remember we don't need a ton of sun (or any at all sometimes) just to see normal storms!

No not severe really, I just want to see some good lightning!