North Balti Zen Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I like when yoda pastes that stuff in here. One stop shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I like when yoda pastes that stuff in here. One stop shopping. well if he isn't doing that he is posting about how bright it is outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Pretty freakin' awesome placement by the SPC (again): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_v_20130610_1200.gif http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2013/day1otlk_v_20130610_1630.gif The tornado outlines yesterday were also very good. We'll see how the assessments go today/this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Pattern looks to reload? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Any discussion of Tuesday or future events should go back in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 Yeah. I think this pattern is good for some interesting stuff. It may not be epic, but it will be better than 90's, high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 woo storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2013 Author Share Posted June 14, 2013 woo storms Severe or non severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 Severe or non severe?In that solution prob severe tho that's a much better solution than other runs I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 14, 2013 Author Share Posted June 14, 2013 In that solution prob severe tho that's a much better solution than other runs I've seen Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 woo storms gfs_namer_102_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Based on a one of the GFS's famous imaginary grid-scale feedback lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 looks like a lower cape event on the gfs but it's arguably a better track (or more normal) for tornado activity etc. becomes another nor'easter. of course the euro doesn't really agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 LWX this morning (from discussion) .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...00Z OPERATIONAL GFS PROGS A SHORTWAVE LOW TO EJECT FROM COLORADOSUNDAY NIGHT...RIDGE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND TRACK ACROSS THECENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE TRACKFOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOESAND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY SHORTWAVE IN THE 00Z ECMWF (AS WELL AS THEPREVIOUS 12Z RUN) IS TOO WEAK TO DEVELOP A SURFACE FEATURE.FURTHERMORE...MOST GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO NOT FEATURE A LOW BELOW1005MB IN THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. THIS GREATLY LIMITS CONFIDENCEIN THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO REFRAIN FROMMENTIONING THIS IN THE HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 06z GFS lost it fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 Comparing 0z GFS to 06z to 12z running now, it won't be like 0z but it may be better than 06z for severe weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 15, 2013 Author Share Posted June 15, 2013 Well we get another inch of rain or so on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 The GFS and Euro starting to look more alike. Probably minimizes the svr risk tho there might be some particularly south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 At least it is going to rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Keep the rain coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Woooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 Woo storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Woo storms? Derrr...Squall Line! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 It's seems like everyday this year when we have a chance at thunderstorms, it's ruined by too much cloud cover and showers. Seems like the same issue today, but I hope I'm wrong! Where is the cold front located right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 It's seems like everyday this year when we have a chance at thunderstorms, it's ruined by too much cloud cover and showers. Seems like the same issue today, but I hope I'm wrong! Where is the cold front located right now? There's really no surface front to speak of. The feature today is a mid-level shortwave that is currently over the eastern Ohio valley. This coupled with diurnal instability (sunshine) should provide the trigger for storms. From there storm mode should be isolated with developing cold pools to promote line segments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 I'm mostly looking for lightning today if the timing is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 I'm just concerned with the amount of cloud cover that is in place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 I'm just concerned with the amount of cloud cover that is in place... were you expecting severe? we aren't even under a slight risk - remember we don't need a ton of sun (or any at all sometimes) just to see normal storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 were you expecting severe? we aren't even under a slight risk - remember we don't need a ton of sun (or any at all sometimes) just to see normal storms! No not severe really, I just want to see some good lightning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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