2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[HM]

The 12z SPC WRF max UH caught my attention around 22z for E MD:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/mxuphl_f10.gif

 

That's a pretty notable signature!

[Ian]

Meh…Thursday looks to be a better day for the MA. Derecho potential.  

 

no d word allowed here.. see ya

[CheesyPoofs]

seriously -- i appreciate the condensing of information here -- most of us don't have time to refresh SPC every couple of minutes

Not sure how posting the stuff even bothers people that much. Even if you read it already on the SPC page, it's not like someone posting it here means you are forced to read it again.

While we may not need to post every single product/warning issued (say a random pop up storm out in WV that triggers a warning), posting AFD's/warnings/watches/MD's/SPS's/SPC outlooks/whatever can be useful for archive purposes.

For example, if one wants to go through the derecho thread from last June, they can better see how the day unfolded as most of the products issued through out the day were posted, from the afternoon when it looked like no big deal to after sunset when it was obvious how serious the situation was. Pooling such archived info together would be very difficult at best without it being posted in that thread.

[Avdave]

I think we all know where to look for most of this stuff

fortysouthwx.com?

[yoda]

The 12z SPC WRF max UH caught my attention around 22z for E MD:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/mxuphl_f10.gif

 

That's a pretty notable signature!

 

That looks right around La Plata... or just NE of there

[Novachris]

That looks right around La Plata... or just NE of there

 

 

More like Annapolis

[Ian]

That looks right around La Plata... or just NE of there

 

considering it's off already not sure how much location matters. plus it seems to be focusing in on the first line... i think (it's slower on the model) 

[SluggerWx]

Interesting 60/20 probs on that watch...

[HM]

considering it's off already not sure how much location matters. plus it seems to be focusing in on the first line... i think (it's slower on the model) 

 

Yes it is definitely focusing on the first line and it is a couple hours too slow.

[Ian]

Yes it is definitely focusing on the first line and it is a couple hours too slow.

Odds of a wedge on the National Mall?

[HM]

Odds of a wedge on the National Mall?

 

lol

 

I'm all wedged out man. We better not see any wedges today! I see some signs of rotation in the cells across DE. It is going to be interesting to see how this first line behaves.

[Kmlwx]

Odds of a wedge on the National Mall?

I'm not HM but I'll say 0.1421%

[Kmlwx]

Let's just get this first line out of here so we can soup up the air even more with some sunshine.

[wxmeddler]

77/73 with ESE winds off the river, just need some sunshine and it's GAME ON.

[Ian]

lol

I'm all wedged out man. We better not see any wedges today! I see some signs of rotation in the cells across DE. It is going to be interesting to see how this first line behaves.

Still not a huge fan of the timing on this first batch but oh well.

[Ian]

Cell SW of Dale City might be worth watching. Having trouble staying discrete but has some of the look. Few other potential wannabe if they hold.

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like a bit of clearing behind this line.  Warm front also is analyzed perpendicular to the National Capital Region.  Maybe an interesting storm or two this afternoon in NOVA or far southern MD.

[yoda]

Still not a huge fan of the timing on this first batch but oh well.

Could help to moisten the atmosphere more i.e. make it more soupy... but yeah... wish this line was bout 2 hrs ago coming through

[HM]

Still not a huge fan of the timing on this first batch but oh well.

 

 

Cell SW of Dale City might be worth watching. Having trouble staying discrete but has some of the look. Few other potential wannabe if they hold.

 

Yeah I agree that some cells are getting "the look" down there. The timing may just be the thing that keeps the immediate DC area okay but I'm not good enough to say yes or no. Certainly E MD/VA into DELMARVA looks best at the moment.

[Ian]

Yeah I agree that some cells are getting "the look" down there. The timing may just be the thing that keeps the immediate DC area okay but I'm not good enough to say yes or no. Certainly E MD/VA into DELMARVA looks best at the moment.

Yeah kinda been favoring east and southeast myself but maybe we'll be OK behind this first batch. Usually that doesn't seem to work out tho ill be optimistic.

[snowfan]

Odds of a wedge on the National Mall?

finish off the monument.

[SabreAce33]

Watching this carefully here in SBY.  Still fairly cool and overcast here, however.

[snowfan]

Nothing significant ever seems to fire on the eastern shore, which is a shame from a chasing perspective. The terrain is do damn flat and open with fields its about as good as you can get around here for chasing.

[AllWeather]

The CIA would like a word with you. Prism is listening.

 

finish off the monument.

 

 

Pretty solid environment building for you guys. These showers west of D.C might crap in your cornflakes, but the western shore of the Chesapeake into the Eastern Shore should do okay.

[wxmeddler]

Everyone over here so we don't clog the "General" severe wx thread.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40485-june-10-14-severe-wx-obs-radar-warnings-dmg-rpts/

[SabreAce33]

Nothing significant ever seems to fire on the eastern shore, which is a shame from a chasing perspective. The terrain is do damn flat and open with fields its about as good as you can get around here for chasing.

 

The bay tends to kill a lot of the momentum quite often.

[Eskimo Joe]

Tornado Watch:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0293.html

[NOVAForecaster]

Sun peeking through in Oakton post-showers, definitely feeling sticky out @ 79/75

[NOVAForecaster]

[Ian]

plz move current threat talk here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40485-june-10-14-severe-wx-obs-radar-warnings-dmg-rpts/