Bodhi Cove Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Re Today: Watch the first 10 miles of the western shore of the bay in AA and Balt counties. This is the kind of day that low level helicity can jump dramatically from the enhanced SE winds coming up the rivers. Kind of a theory of mine that started when the F1 went through the next street down in 2006. Noted.. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 The Main event is still back over western W-VA, with a good clearing in between. yup, and the first line has become more broken in time -- some places won't even see much with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 sun trying to break out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 30% wind added just SW of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 wasn't implying that band was the be all and end all but once you're into afternoon pretty much anything is game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 noon meso analysis has 2000 sbcape to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 noon meso analysis has 2000 sbcape to dc sbcp.gif rising DP's ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I can see some peeks of sunshine through the clouds here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Visible looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN NC INTO MUCH OF VA AND MD/DE TO FAR SOUTHERN PA/NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 101656Z - 101900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN NC INTO MUCH OF VA AND EVENTUALLY ADJACENT PARTS OF MD/DE AND FAR SOUTHERN PA/NJ. WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK BEING CONCERNS...PORTIONS OF THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO NEED A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN A BROAD/CONFLUENT WARM SECTOR ESPECIALLY FROM THE NC PIEDMONT INTO SOUTHEAST VA...WITH OTHER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER WEST NEAR/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS SPINE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER FRONT. CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY BEEN HINDERING THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION/UPDRAFT VIGOR THUS FAR. HOWEVER...SOME THINNING OF CLOUD COVER IS NOTED OUTSIDE ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS IS PROBABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS /LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...WITH AID OF THE UPSTREAM APPROACHING/EASTWARD-MOVING OPENING UPPER LOW. AS UPDRAFTS/STORMS MATURE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PROBABLE STRENGTHENING OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...A COMBINATION OF SEMI-DISCRETE/SMALLER SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A PROBABLE EVOLUTION OF RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES/LEWP DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK. ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 06/10/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 I wonder if it'll be a TOR or a STW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 must be severe "season"... all yoda does is copy and paste without providing much thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 must be severe "season"... all yoda does is copy and paste without providing much thought Only the important stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I wonder if it'll be a TOR or a STW I would bet TOR with the decent shear and SRH in place... low LCL's and good SBCAPE... and hodo's look to elongate and curve a bit more as the afternoon goes on coincident with the increase in the SW low level jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I wonder if it'll be a TOR or a STWProbably tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I think we all know where to look for most of this stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 must be severe "season"... all yoda does is copy and paste without providing much thought Sounds like what I do at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Will LWX do a 18z SPEC sounding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 I think we all know where to look for most of this stuff CONVENIENCE ANDY...CONVENIENCE! Some of us are far too lazy to go to the SPC website (like me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Sounds like what I do at work. it's a living Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Will LWX do a 18z SPEC sounding? have they released a statement saying they will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 have they released a statement saying they will? Not yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 CONVENIENCE ANDY...CONVENIENCE! Some of us are far too lazy to go to the SPC website (like me). seriously -- i appreciate the condensing of information here -- most of us don't have time to refresh SPC every couple of minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 it's a living Until they catch on* *I'm kidding, IT people...I'm kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 seriously -- i appreciate the condensing of information here -- most of us don't have time to refresh SPC every couple of minutes but you have time to refresh here every couple of minutes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 but you have time to refresh here every couple of minutes? +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Meh…Thursday looks to be a better day for the MA. Derecho potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Meh…Thursday looks to be a better day for the MA. Derecho potential. there are enough weenies as it is without you chiming in and causing more to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 but you have time to refresh here every couple of minutes? haha nice one -- the concept of efficiency is liking lost on feds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Meh…Thursday looks to be a better day for the MA. Derecho potential. What does TX know about derechos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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