Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 wed chase day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Sky starting to brighten up here in Centreville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 woostorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 woostorms NAM_218_2013061012_F81_39.0000N_77.0000W.png 39N 77W? That's almost right over DC. Pretty astounding if it comes to fruition, which it likely won't. #stupidNAM Re Today: Watch the first 10 miles of the western shore of the bay in AA and Balt counties. This is the kind of day that low level helicity can jump dramatically from the enhanced SE winds coming up the rivers. Kind of a theory of mine that started when the F1 went through the next street down in 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 wed chase day? THat is an improvement over last run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 39N 77W? That's almost right over DC. Pretty astounding if it comes to fruition, which it likely won't. #stupidNAM You have been jaded by the midwest. YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Severe wx in the mid atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 39N 77W? That's almost right over DC. Pretty astounding if it comes to fruition, which it likely won't. #stupidNAM Re Today: Watch the first 10 miles of the western shore of the bay in AA and Balt counties. This is the kind of day that low level helicity can jump dramatically from the enhanced SE winds coming up the rivers. Kind of a theory of mine that started when the F1 went through the next street down in 2006. nam pretty ideal for thurs.. maybe a smidge fast as the profile has westerly winds by 0z tho i guess most of our tornado events are mid afternoon around here. has a nice lee low etc. hard to trust tho i think that period (wed-thur) is our best shot this year if it holds as it looks on the models. wed might stay capped during the day but if you get something to go could be a structure day at the least. sfc winds need some work but there might be some local backing near the pseudo warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 woostorms NAM_218_2013061012_F81_39.0000N_77.0000W.png all i see are squiggly lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 all i see are squiggly lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 ^^ looks like a demented PacMan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Looks like a STW coming soon down in NC/SC... kinda same environment up here but we have more of a low level jet up here I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 nam pretty ideal for thurs.. maybe a smidge fast as the profile has westerly winds by 0z tho i guess most of our tornado events are mid afternoon around here. has a nice lee low etc. hard to trust tho i think that period (wed-thur) is our best shot this year if it holds as it looks on the models. wed might stay capped during the day but if you get something to go could be a structure day at the least. sfc winds need some work but there might be some local backing near the pseudo warm front. I am excited...about as much as we can hope for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 ^^ looks like a demented PacMan crab claw of severe is going to pinch us!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 those showers near cho need to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 those showers near cho need to slow down. I'll tell them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 12z GFS says I see your ~1000 SBCAPE 12z NAM... and I raise you to 2300 SBCAPE for KDCA 18z and 1400 at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 those showers near cho need to slow down. Or speed up. #WaitForTheBackLine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novachris Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 12z GFS says I see your ~1000 SBCAPE 12z NAM... and I raise you to 2300 SBCAPE for KDCA 18z and 1400 at 00z I'll take the GFS over NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Or speed up. #WaitForTheBackLine I agree with speed up -- they were never the main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I'll take the GFS over NAM. Does seem to match the SPC mesoanalysis better... for ever what that is worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I'll take the GFS over NAM. In setups like this NAM does tend to underestimate the CAPE with the clouds+rain hanging around (unless all-day clouds and rain verifies). In this case, GFS should definitely get the lean around DC and south. Perhaps more of a blend the further north you go where the more persistent rain is. A look at the SPC mesoanaylsis shows 2000-2500 SFC CAPE already in eastern VA, so the NAM's certainly off in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I agree with speed up -- they were never the main event The Main event is still back over western W-VA, with a good clearing in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 In setups like this NAM does tend to underestimate the CAPE with the clouds+rain hanging around (unless all-day clouds and rain verifies). In this case, GFS should definitely get the lean around DC and south. Perhaps more of a blend the further north you go where the more persistent rain is. A look at the SPC mesoanaylsis shows 2000-2500 SFC CAPE already in eastern VA, so the NAM's certainly off in that area. Seems that way... SPC meso has 1500 SBCAPE just east of I-81 corridor with 2000 SBCAPE nosing in to DC area... along with 1000 MLCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Re Today: Watch the first 10 miles of the western shore of the bay in AA and Balt counties. This is the kind of day that low level helicity can jump dramatically from the enhanced SE winds coming up the rivers. Kind of a theory of mine that started when the F1 went through the next street down in 2006. Noted.. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 The Main event is still back over western W-VA, with a good clearing in between. yup, and the first line has become more broken in time -- some places won't even see much with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 sun trying to break out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 30% wind added just SW of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 wasn't implying that band was the be all and end all but once you're into afternoon pretty much anything is game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 noon meso analysis has 2000 sbcape to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.