yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Updated HWO still hits on risk for some tornadoes later... but seems to lean toward damaging wind threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Remember guys, supercells generate their own omega to some extent. You don't need 2000 j/kg of CAPE. If you can get a little instability going at surface to touch things off (i.e. a little sun OR theta convection) you can get supercells.Given the clearing to the southwest and the fact that guidance has sufficient instability verbatim, it is far to early to be writing this one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Think generally 95 and east might be OK. See how much the rain shield south tries to work in. 55% chance of a tor watch for parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Think generally 95 and east might be OK. See how much the rain shield south tries to work in. 55% chance of a tor watch for parts of the area. Bullish numbers. I'll go with a 40% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Updated LWX AFD as of 11 AM (just posting svr wthr risk part)... seems like the modified sounding showed a bit more instability: DESPITE LIMITED DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WITH GENERALLY MINIMALBREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...12Z IAD MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS SBCAPEAROUND 1000 J/KG AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF THEBOUNDARY. GIVEN LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND LATEST VIS SATSHOWING SOME CLEARING NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER...SOME BREAKS IN THECLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OFCENTRAL VA AND SRN MD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HIGHERINSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG. EVEN IFINSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK...AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY LLVL JET WILLENHANCE SHEAR AND THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR A LIMITATION ININSTABILITY. THUS...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCINGDAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AND GIVEN FORECAST SHEAR/HODOGRAPHCONSIDERATIONS CAN NOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOESESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WIND UP HAVING HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SFCWINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED MORE OUT OF THE SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 If we are to accept them as correct, 12z NAM showing some nice curved hodo's from 18z on till around 03z at KIAD... 03z has a "loop de loop" hodo... SBCAPE is around 1100 J/KG with really low (and I mean REALLY LOW) LCL heights - as in below 185m at 18z and 21z About the same at DCA... 0-1 km shear is nice, SRH at both levels 200+... 0-6 km shear is decent around 30-35 kts FWIW, 00z GFS also looked decent for the area as well looking at soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 wed chase day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Sky starting to brighten up here in Centreville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 woostorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 woostorms NAM_218_2013061012_F81_39.0000N_77.0000W.png 39N 77W? That's almost right over DC. Pretty astounding if it comes to fruition, which it likely won't. #stupidNAM Re Today: Watch the first 10 miles of the western shore of the bay in AA and Balt counties. This is the kind of day that low level helicity can jump dramatically from the enhanced SE winds coming up the rivers. Kind of a theory of mine that started when the F1 went through the next street down in 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 wed chase day? THat is an improvement over last run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 39N 77W? That's almost right over DC. Pretty astounding if it comes to fruition, which it likely won't. #stupidNAM You have been jaded by the midwest. YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Severe wx in the mid atl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 39N 77W? That's almost right over DC. Pretty astounding if it comes to fruition, which it likely won't. #stupidNAM Re Today: Watch the first 10 miles of the western shore of the bay in AA and Balt counties. This is the kind of day that low level helicity can jump dramatically from the enhanced SE winds coming up the rivers. Kind of a theory of mine that started when the F1 went through the next street down in 2006. nam pretty ideal for thurs.. maybe a smidge fast as the profile has westerly winds by 0z tho i guess most of our tornado events are mid afternoon around here. has a nice lee low etc. hard to trust tho i think that period (wed-thur) is our best shot this year if it holds as it looks on the models. wed might stay capped during the day but if you get something to go could be a structure day at the least. sfc winds need some work but there might be some local backing near the pseudo warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 woostorms NAM_218_2013061012_F81_39.0000N_77.0000W.png all i see are squiggly lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 all i see are squiggly lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 ^^ looks like a demented PacMan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Looks like a STW coming soon down in NC/SC... kinda same environment up here but we have more of a low level jet up here I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 nam pretty ideal for thurs.. maybe a smidge fast as the profile has westerly winds by 0z tho i guess most of our tornado events are mid afternoon around here. has a nice lee low etc. hard to trust tho i think that period (wed-thur) is our best shot this year if it holds as it looks on the models. wed might stay capped during the day but if you get something to go could be a structure day at the least. sfc winds need some work but there might be some local backing near the pseudo warm front. I am excited...about as much as we can hope for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 ^^ looks like a demented PacMan crab claw of severe is going to pinch us!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 those showers near cho need to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 those showers near cho need to slow down. I'll tell them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 12z GFS says I see your ~1000 SBCAPE 12z NAM... and I raise you to 2300 SBCAPE for KDCA 18z and 1400 at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 those showers near cho need to slow down. Or speed up. #WaitForTheBackLine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novachris Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 12z GFS says I see your ~1000 SBCAPE 12z NAM... and I raise you to 2300 SBCAPE for KDCA 18z and 1400 at 00z I'll take the GFS over NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Or speed up. #WaitForTheBackLine I agree with speed up -- they were never the main event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I'll take the GFS over NAM. Does seem to match the SPC mesoanalysis better... for ever what that is worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I'll take the GFS over NAM. In setups like this NAM does tend to underestimate the CAPE with the clouds+rain hanging around (unless all-day clouds and rain verifies). In this case, GFS should definitely get the lean around DC and south. Perhaps more of a blend the further north you go where the more persistent rain is. A look at the SPC mesoanaylsis shows 2000-2500 SFC CAPE already in eastern VA, so the NAM's certainly off in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I agree with speed up -- they were never the main event The Main event is still back over western W-VA, with a good clearing in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 In setups like this NAM does tend to underestimate the CAPE with the clouds+rain hanging around (unless all-day clouds and rain verifies). In this case, GFS should definitely get the lean around DC and south. Perhaps more of a blend the further north you go where the more persistent rain is. A look at the SPC mesoanaylsis shows 2000-2500 SFC CAPE already in eastern VA, so the NAM's certainly off in that area. Seems that way... SPC meso has 1500 SBCAPE just east of I-81 corridor with 2000 SBCAPE nosing in to DC area... along with 1000 MLCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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