mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 supercells! yay?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 yay?! well, better to have the chance than no chance. pre "derecho" lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Big bag of nope for this week. Flooding seems to be the bigger threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 well, better to have the chance than no chance. pre "derecho" lunch. the derecho talk is pretty funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 the derecho talk is pretty funny Wxrisk.com *** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE DERECHO EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR OHIO VALLEY and MIDDLE ATLANTIC Wed afternoon ...evening ...into early Thursday morningHere is the 18z WRF /NAM ... at 72 hrs ( top 3 maps) and six hours later at 84 hrs . The LEFT maps are UPPER AIR ( 500mb) .. and shows a Powerful piece of energy in the Jet stream over Chicago ( CIRCLE IN YELLOW) ... 6 hours later that feature is over IND/ OH., The huge cluster of storms over southern WI and raced ESE .. classic DERECHO track-- into southeast MI and Northeast OH. IF .... IF .. this is correct the DERECHO would hit western and / or central PA western / central MD and DEL... It Might skim Northern VA early Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Look out for the...DERECHO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Digging a bunker now...... And I thought it was too dry for flooding to be a threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 LWX AFD sounds like even if we have 500 J/KG instability... low level jet will enhance our severe threat this afternoon ad bring out about our threat for tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 LWX AFD sounds like even if we have 500 J/KG instability... low level jet will enhance our severe threat this afternoon ad bring out about our threat for tornadoes So long as we have cloud cover, I don't see anything happening today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 So long as we have cloud cover, I don't see anything happening today. Thats what I thought.... but apparently LWX sees different GIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO START THE DAY...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ISSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MODELS FAVOR CLOSE TO 500 J/KG...BUT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IF THERE ANY BREAKS THIS COULD EASILY BOOST VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. EVEN IF INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK/MARGINAL...AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR A LIMITATION IN INSTABILITY. THUS...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AND GIVEN FORECAST SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CONSIDERATIONS CAN NOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WIND UP HAVING HIGHER INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 lol @ tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Scattered clearing starting in WV and SW VA. So long as we have cloud cover, I don't see anything happening today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Scattered clearing starting in WV and SW VA. We know how these things work - the clearing will just never make it to the bulk of us. There will be like one good storm later on in an isolated spot and the rest of us will fail and just get flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Shear is not prohibitively strong for low CAPE but we'll need some help. Would like to see widespread ~1000 surface based not just pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 We know how these things work - the clearing will just never make it to the bulk of us. There will be like one good storm later on in an isolated spot and the rest of us will fail and just get flooding. Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Solid overcast here in the 21030, doesn't really feel like it's in the cards for us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Sheesh that didn't take long for people to start running with the D-word. In all seriousness, I like the *potential* for some sort of long tracking MCS across the Midwest, possibly into the mid-atl late Wed. That is an impressive looking temp boundary with dews probably around 70 on the southern reaches there. I do not see an EML which was mentioned in a prev post, and I dont see 105/75 in DC (hottest ever June day) so yeah..but models are picking up a meaningful short wave that would spark and help sustain a system. If I'm not mistaken, last year's June 29th event had a very subtle trigger, and no shortwave providing/sustaining the lift..It was all driven by a cold pool from there, and that's all it needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Correct You have been very anti-excitement lately Probably will end up being right, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 You have been very anti-excitement lately Probably will end up being right, though. I've given up on seeing exciting weather in the MA...guess I'll have to move to the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 I've given up on seeing exciting weather in the MA...guess I'll have to move to the Midwest. I hope this year we get awesome severe followed by a hurricane followed by a blizzard in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 It's a pretty good mid lvl trough passage historically. Most of our svr events are kind of meh. Hard to be too down on it with the right expectations. If it wasn't going to try to rain all day might be more fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 woah....take it easy. I was nearly run off the board last year for suggesting our weather was boring. Remain calm and hope for a derecho, some F 0's and torrential downpours this week. I've given up on seeing exciting weather in the MA...guess I'll have to move to the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 There are breaks to the south, it's definitely not write-off time at 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 It's a pretty good mid lvl trough passage historically. Most of our svr events are kind of meh. Hard to be too down on it with the right expectations. If it wasn't going to try to rain all day might be more fun.. There are breaks to the south, it's definitely not write-off time at 10am. Yep. The morning thoughts on 4/19 were also pretty negative and wrong and then LWX ended up confirming a couple of TORs in the area: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130419 Overall, it is setups like these that usually bring the northern Mid Atlantic their tornado threat (probabilistically-speaking of course): deep moisture, low LCL, decent directional/speed shear with enough CAPE (storm-relatively balanced of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Updated HWO still hits on risk for some tornadoes later... but seems to lean toward damaging wind threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Remember guys, supercells generate their own omega to some extent. You don't need 2000 j/kg of CAPE. If you can get a little instability going at surface to touch things off (i.e. a little sun OR theta convection) you can get supercells.Given the clearing to the southwest and the fact that guidance has sufficient instability verbatim, it is far to early to be writing this one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Think generally 95 and east might be OK. See how much the rain shield south tries to work in. 55% chance of a tor watch for parts of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Think generally 95 and east might be OK. See how much the rain shield south tries to work in. 55% chance of a tor watch for parts of the area. Bullish numbers. I'll go with a 40% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Updated LWX AFD as of 11 AM (just posting svr wthr risk part)... seems like the modified sounding showed a bit more instability: DESPITE LIMITED DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION WITH GENERALLY MINIMALBREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...12Z IAD MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS SBCAPEAROUND 1000 J/KG AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE TO THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF THEBOUNDARY. GIVEN LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT AND LATEST VIS SATSHOWING SOME CLEARING NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER...SOME BREAKS IN THECLOUD COVER MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OFCENTRAL VA AND SRN MD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR POCKETS OF HIGHERINSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG. EVEN IFINSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK...AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY LLVL JET WILLENHANCE SHEAR AND THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR A LIMITATION ININSTABILITY. THUS...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCINGDAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AND GIVEN FORECAST SHEAR/HODOGRAPHCONSIDERATIONS CAN NOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOESESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WIND UP HAVING HIGHER INSTABILITY AND SFCWINDS CAN REMAIN BACKED MORE OUT OF THE SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 If we are to accept them as correct, 12z NAM showing some nice curved hodo's from 18z on till around 03z at KIAD... 03z has a "loop de loop" hodo... SBCAPE is around 1100 J/KG with really low (and I mean REALLY LOW) LCL heights - as in below 185m at 18z and 21z About the same at DCA... 0-1 km shear is nice, SRH at both levels 200+... 0-6 km shear is decent around 30-35 kts FWIW, 00z GFS also looked decent for the area as well looking at soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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