yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 I actually don't know what to call the thing models are depicting. It's a legit mini H5 troff that moves quickly across the country. It will probably have a bow echo associated with it. It needs to be quicker and less amplified to look like a derecho. 00z NAM def has that... but its moving east late in the period (66 in NW IA to 84 NE OH) on the h5 charts and it strengthens as it moves eastward... its trajectory would take it north of us into PA if it were correct... unless it suddenly decides to pull a SE turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 00z NAM def has that... but its moving east late in the period (66 in NW IA to 84 NE OH) on the h5 charts and it strengthens as it moves eastward... its trajectory would take it north of us into PA if it were correct... unless it suddenly decides to pull a SE turn Rest of the real models still track the low over us. GFS has a 996 low that tracks off the Del Marva and skims cape cod. Interesting H7 map, at 114 but it's probably a feedback error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 GFS says "bull's eye" for Thurs-Friday time period. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 SPC tornado probs map from this morning look a little bullish, but the discussion makes more sense compared to what I was thinking for today....CAROLINAS INTO VA...MD...PA...DE...SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDS AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WILL ADD UNCERTAINTYTO THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...A GENERAL INCREASE INCONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS AND POCKETS OFHEATING AND SWLY FLOW HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR. THEREWILL BE LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING...THUS SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS SUCHAS BOUNDARY LAYER CONFLUENCE WITHIN THE DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGHWILL BE ENOUGH TO FORCE STORMS.HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME LONGER DURING THE DAY...WITH SUPERCELLSLIKELY. LOW LEVEL VEERING WILL NOT BE STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ATORNADO OR TWO GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. THE MOSTCONCENTRATED AREA FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE FROM CNTRL/ERN VA INTO MDAND SRN PA.ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS LESS FARTHER N INTO PA...THIS AREAMAY RETAIN THE LARGEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS DUE TO PASSAGE OF EARLYPRECIPITATION AND WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION TO SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAYFORM EITHER ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR ACROSS THE WARMSECTOR...MODERATE DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS WILL FAVOR A FEW BOWS ORLINES WITH DAMAGING WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 FWIW SPC has no risk here on the Wednesday outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 supercells! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 supercells! yay?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 yay?! well, better to have the chance than no chance. pre "derecho" lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Big bag of nope for this week. Flooding seems to be the bigger threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 well, better to have the chance than no chance. pre "derecho" lunch. the derecho talk is pretty funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 the derecho talk is pretty funny Wxrisk.com *** ALERT ** 1ST POSSIBLE DERECHO EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR OHIO VALLEY and MIDDLE ATLANTIC Wed afternoon ...evening ...into early Thursday morningHere is the 18z WRF /NAM ... at 72 hrs ( top 3 maps) and six hours later at 84 hrs . The LEFT maps are UPPER AIR ( 500mb) .. and shows a Powerful piece of energy in the Jet stream over Chicago ( CIRCLE IN YELLOW) ... 6 hours later that feature is over IND/ OH., The huge cluster of storms over southern WI and raced ESE .. classic DERECHO track-- into southeast MI and Northeast OH. IF .... IF .. this is correct the DERECHO would hit western and / or central PA western / central MD and DEL... It Might skim Northern VA early Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Look out for the...DERECHO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Digging a bunker now...... And I thought it was too dry for flooding to be a threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 LWX AFD sounds like even if we have 500 J/KG instability... low level jet will enhance our severe threat this afternoon ad bring out about our threat for tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 LWX AFD sounds like even if we have 500 J/KG instability... low level jet will enhance our severe threat this afternoon ad bring out about our threat for tornadoes So long as we have cloud cover, I don't see anything happening today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 So long as we have cloud cover, I don't see anything happening today. Thats what I thought.... but apparently LWX sees different GIVEN CLOUDS/SHOWERS TO START THE DAY...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ISSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MODELS FAVOR CLOSE TO 500 J/KG...BUT SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IF THERE ANY BREAKS THIS COULD EASILY BOOST VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. EVEN IF INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK/MARGINAL...AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE SHEAR AND THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR A LIMITATION IN INSTABILITY. THUS...SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AND GIVEN FORECAST SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CONSIDERATIONS CAN NOT RULE OUT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT WIND UP HAVING HIGHER INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 lol @ tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Scattered clearing starting in WV and SW VA. So long as we have cloud cover, I don't see anything happening today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Scattered clearing starting in WV and SW VA. We know how these things work - the clearing will just never make it to the bulk of us. There will be like one good storm later on in an isolated spot and the rest of us will fail and just get flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Shear is not prohibitively strong for low CAPE but we'll need some help. Would like to see widespread ~1000 surface based not just pockets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 We know how these things work - the clearing will just never make it to the bulk of us. There will be like one good storm later on in an isolated spot and the rest of us will fail and just get flooding. Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Solid overcast here in the 21030, doesn't really feel like it's in the cards for us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Sheesh that didn't take long for people to start running with the D-word. In all seriousness, I like the *potential* for some sort of long tracking MCS across the Midwest, possibly into the mid-atl late Wed. That is an impressive looking temp boundary with dews probably around 70 on the southern reaches there. I do not see an EML which was mentioned in a prev post, and I dont see 105/75 in DC (hottest ever June day) so yeah..but models are picking up a meaningful short wave that would spark and help sustain a system. If I'm not mistaken, last year's June 29th event had a very subtle trigger, and no shortwave providing/sustaining the lift..It was all driven by a cold pool from there, and that's all it needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 Correct You have been very anti-excitement lately Probably will end up being right, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 You have been very anti-excitement lately Probably will end up being right, though. I've given up on seeing exciting weather in the MA...guess I'll have to move to the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 10, 2013 Author Share Posted June 10, 2013 I've given up on seeing exciting weather in the MA...guess I'll have to move to the Midwest. I hope this year we get awesome severe followed by a hurricane followed by a blizzard in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 It's a pretty good mid lvl trough passage historically. Most of our svr events are kind of meh. Hard to be too down on it with the right expectations. If it wasn't going to try to rain all day might be more fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 woah....take it easy. I was nearly run off the board last year for suggesting our weather was boring. Remain calm and hope for a derecho, some F 0's and torrential downpours this week. I've given up on seeing exciting weather in the MA...guess I'll have to move to the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 There are breaks to the south, it's definitely not write-off time at 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 It's a pretty good mid lvl trough passage historically. Most of our svr events are kind of meh. Hard to be too down on it with the right expectations. If it wasn't going to try to rain all day might be more fun.. There are breaks to the south, it's definitely not write-off time at 10am. Yep. The morning thoughts on 4/19 were also pretty negative and wrong and then LWX ended up confirming a couple of TORs in the area: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20130419 Overall, it is setups like these that usually bring the northern Mid Atlantic their tornado threat (probabilistically-speaking of course): deep moisture, low LCL, decent directional/speed shear with enough CAPE (storm-relatively balanced of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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