2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[Srain]

lol

[Dsnowx53]

lol

 

 

I'm bored already. 

[Ian]

Convective gusty showers

[Ian]

I'm bored already.

Don't worry another derecho will be along in a decade and it will suck because it moves so fast

[Amped]

GFS and Euro hit us with some severe in the MON-TUE time frame. Too lazy to look at soundings but the map would be favorable for a few tornadoes if the LLJ max corresponded to the right time of day.

[Dsnowx53]

Don't worry another derecho will be along in a decade and it will suck because it moves so fast

 

 

yay

 

though maybe some WNW flow fun later this month with lower heights entering Canada above a ridge sliding eastward? 

[Ian]

yay

 

though maybe some WNW flow fun later this month with lower heights entering Canada above a ridge sliding eastward? 

 

It does look like we might finally get some better storm potential coming up post Andrea. Monday/Tue worth watching .. Mon prob has the higher end potential but another vort rotating around Tue might mean more activity should it occur. The pattern trying to set up after might be supportive of longer-track MCS type events and/or some local brews depending on timing etc. 

[Kmlwx]

It does look like we might finally get some better storm potential coming up post Andrea. Monday/Tue worth watching .. Mon prob has the higher end potential but another vort rotating around Tue might mean more activity should it occur. The pattern trying to set up after might be supportive of longer-track MCS type events and/or some local brews depending on timing etc. 

It better get exciting around here. Maybe we should banish you to the plains if this upcoming period fails. 

[Ian]

Monday still looks interesting at mid levels at least. The GFS wind profile isn't that supportive for tornadoes but the NAM is closer.. tho the NAM has a bunch of junk during the day.  It's a prime spot for a 500 low to pass tho so worth watching as it closes.  Should have some severe risk either way. 

[Kmlwx]

Monday still looks interesting at mid levels at least. The GFS wind profile isn't that supportive for tornadoes but the NAM is closer.. tho the NAM has a bunch of junk during the day.  It's a prime spot for a 500 low to pass tho so worth watching as it closes.  Should have some severe risk either way.

How does later in the week look? Still MCS potential?

[Ian]

How does later in the week look? Still MCS potential?

 

Models still advertising that type of pattern -- or one which could have some home brews from lows near the Lakes... but maybe still about 7-10 off? 

[Kmlwx]

Models still advertising that type of pattern -- or one which could have some home brews from lows near the Lakes... but maybe still about 7-10 off?

Good to see it's still possible, though. Thanks!

[Ian]

Good to see it's still possible, though. Thanks!

 

I think we'll have some "good times" ahead. Most interested I've been this year tho maybe I missed something when we were gone.  Climo + pattern = win. 

[NJwinter23]

I think we'll have some "good times" ahead. Most interested I've been this year tho maybe I missed something when we were gone.  Climo + pattern = win. 

 

I agree, should have chances ahead for sure. Cant do anything if the timing is bad, but things are looking up. Ill start my greater intrigue with Wed if the euro is right, just looking at the upper levels. cold front dropping pretty sharply north to south

[Ian]

Tomorrow looks too full of crapvection at this point plus the trough is a little slow. Might end up with the wrong timing for both Mon and Tue with this one. Could still see an iso svr threat but probably spotty unless we can manage to stay dry most of the day. 

[Kmlwx]

Tomorrow looks too full of crapvection at this point plus the trough is a little slow. Might end up with the wrong timing for both Mon and Tue with this one. Could still see an iso svr threat but probably spotty unless we can manage to stay dry most of the day. 

 

Forbes posted this - for Wed

Wed June 12

Scattered severe thunderstorms along a stationary front, probably in storm clusters and possibly one or more derechos (widespread damaging thunderstorm windstorms associated with a large bow 

echo on radar) in east IA, north MO, IL, IN, extreme south WI, extreme south MI, OH, west-central and south PA, MD, DE, south NJ, north half VA, north and central WV, DC. TORCON - 2

to 3. Isolated severe thunderstorms in MT, central ID, norht WY. TORCON - 2 to 3.

[thunderman]

Forbes posted this - for Wed

Wed June 12

Scattered severe thunderstorms along a stationary front, probably in storm clusters and possibly one or more derechos (widespread damaging thunderstorm windstorms associated with a large bow 

echo on radar) in east IA, north MO, IL, IN, extreme south WI, extreme south MI, OH, west-central and south PA, MD, DE, south NJ, north half VA, north and central WV, DC. TORCON - 2

to 3. Isolated severe thunderstorms in MT, central ID, norht WY. TORCON - 2 to 3.

 

Way to early for him to be tossing out the "D" word (especially after last year in this area), but I do like the damaging wind potential ... assuming timing works out of course.

[Kmlwx]

Way to early for him to be tossing out the "D" word (especially after last year in this area), but I do like the damaging wind potential ... assuming timing works out of course.

 

There goes DT doing it too lol

[Ian]

Too bad no one called for one last year. Now every convective sys is a 'possible derecho'

[Kmlwx]

Too bad no one called for one last year. Now every convective sys is a 'possible derecho'

 

Probably a bit early to be throwing the word out - all I am reading with my eyes is that we have legit severe potential this week. Whether it will be realized is another question. 

[mattie g]

Woo derechoes.

[Kmlwx]

I hope this thread picks up massive steam this week. But in all likelyhood we'll falter and fail. Ian should consider starting a thread since his tend to produce storms. 

[Ian]

Probably a bit early to be throwing the word out - all I am reading with my eyes is that we have legit severe potential this week. Whether it will be realized is another question. 

 

some people are just dumb or willfully ignorant. some making comparisons to last yr.. not even close per models at this pt.  i mean, the models didn't even show anything happening at this range really. plus we sohuld be lacking about 3000+ CAPE.

[thunderman]

Some parts of the region could have some big time flooding issues.  Already some watches up down here around CHO.

[Kmlwx]

some people are just dumb or willfully ignorant. some making comparisons to last yr.. not even close per models at this pt.  i mean, the models didn't even show anything happening at this range really. plus we sohuld be lacking about 3000+ CAPE.

 

Big factor right there.

[thunderman]

some people are just dumb or willfully ignorant. some making comparisons to last yr.. not even close per models at this pt.  i mean, the models didn't even show anything happening at this range really. plus we sohuld be lacking about 3000+ CAPE.

 

Bingo, this right here is why this will not be a repeat of June around here.

[Kmlwx]

Bingo, this right here is why this will not be a repeat of June around here.

No EML right?

[Ian]

Bingo, this right here is why this will not be a repeat of June around here.

the gfs has plentiful CAPE both wed and thur for now tho.. enough for a bigger event at least. i think 08 was 'only' 2-3k cape. i wouldn't totally rule something higher end out but no reason to go there just yet especially east of the apps. highlighting a potential svr episode would suffice for the public.. everyone loves to run to the scary words.

[Kmlwx]

the gfs has plentiful CAPE both tue and wed for now tho.. enough for a bigger event at least. i think 08 was 'only' 2-3k cape. i wouldn't totally rule something higher end out but no reason to go there just yet especially east of the apps.  highlighting a potential svr episode would suffice for the public.. everyone loves to run to the scary words. 

 

It grabs more followers as you've said before. This is the sad side of social media/meteorology. 

Addition: 

'08 also was different timing (not that this is a sig factor) but it was pretty early.

[Amped]

Way to early for him to be tossing out the "D" word (especially after last year in this area), but I do like the damaging wind potential ... assuming timing works out of course.

 

 

I actually don't know what to call the thing models are depicting.  It's a legit mini H5 troff that moves quickly across the country. It will probably have a bow echo associated with it. It needs to be quicker and less amplified to look like a derecho.