2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

[yoda]

6 days away talking about a storm

 

if it was snow, you know we would be talking about it But, I am kind of bored with no real severe weather here so far besides that one day in April

[Avdave]

Confidence is relatively good. Consistent on the models.

 

 

So were many others that were consistent only to Fail lol

 

if it was snow, you know we would be talking about it But, I am kind of bored with no real severe weather here so far besides that one day in April

thats different if it was snow

[mappy]

lol

[Eskimo Joe]

Define "big weather event" Severe storms? Tornado? Tropical Storm? 

Just wondering

Any weather event that requires the activation of our Emergency Operations Center.  We usually do that for 100k+ power outages.

[H2O]

Who needs to go to the midwest to chase.  SLGT risk here!!  Bring on the meh.

[Eskimo Joe]

Pity meso:

 

Link:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0783.html

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA...MD...SRN PA...NRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231937Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCTD SVR TSTMS WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 23Z. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...SCTD STG/SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
MTNS THIS AFTN WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MLCAPE
VALUES AVERAGE AROUND 1000 J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST. MESOANALYSIS AND AREA VWP
DATA SHOW MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR AVERAGING 30 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED TSTMS. PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. AN
ISOLD LARGE HAIL REPORT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVER NRN VA WHERE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFT 23Z AS DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.

..BUNTING/KERR.. 05/23/2013


ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 39657821 40477767 40657689 40457591 40047559 39467575
38037661 36627785 36597860 36797934 37527955 39657821

 

[yoda]

I could see a TW soon in the NW VA cell... see some weak rotation

[yoda]

Decent sup with decent hail core and rotation... right turner?

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
436 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013  
  
VAC043-069-171-187-840-232130-  
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0046.000000T0000Z-130523T2130Z/  
SHENANDOAH VA-WARREN VA-CITY OF WINCHESTER VA-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE VA-  
436 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013  
  
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT  
FOR THE CITY OF WINCHESTER...AND CLARKE...FREDERICK...WARREN AND  
SHENANDOAH COUNTIES...  
  
AT 431 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR STRASBURG...  
AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.  
  
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG   
BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. DOPPLER RADAR HAS   
DETECTED LOW LEVEL ROTATION IN THIS STORM.   
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  STRASBURG...  
  FORT VALLEY...  
  MIDDLETOWN...  
  BUCKTON...  
  RELIANCE...  
  RIVERTON...  
  CEDARVILLE...  
  STEPHENS CITY...

[yoda]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

505 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHWESTERN CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...  

SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...  

WESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT  

 

* AT 502 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  

TORNADO WAS NEAR STEPHENS CITY...OR NEAR MILLWOOD PIKE...AND WAS  

MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

MILLWOOD PIKE...  

GREENWOOD...  

BERRYVILLE...  

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF WINCHESTER...  

ARMEL...  

STEPHENS CITY...  

BOYCE...  

[WinterWxLuvr]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  
505 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN CITY OF WINCHESTER IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...  
  WESTERN CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA...  
  
* UNTIL 530 PM EDT  
  
* AT 502 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS NEAR STEPHENS CITY...OR NEAR MILLWOOD PIKE...AND WAS  
  MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  MILLWOOD PIKE...  
  GREENWOOD...  
  BERRYVILLE...  
  SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF WINCHESTER...  
  ARMEL...  
  STEPHENS CITY...  
  BOYCE...  

LOL yoda, go look at the obs thread! I guess I was looking in the wrong place.

[yoda]

Pulse severe today?  Maybe a damaging wind gust or 2?

[Ian]

Meh

[yoda]

Meh

 

I hope you get 4" hail on your car

[Ian]

I hope you get 4" hail on your car

Me too.

[H2O]

I'm counting on Ian to bring the severe wx back with him

[mattie g]

I'm counting on Ian to bring the severe wx back with him

 

Screw meddler and Ellinwood.

[mappy]

I could use a thunderstorm in my life

[H2O]

I could use a thunderstorm in my life

Nothing up there yesterday?

[mappy]

I could use a thunderstorm in my life

Nothing up there yesterday?

Nope, stayed south

[Kmlwx]

Day 3 slight risk with 15%. 30% north of the area. 

[Ian]

We are bringing sexy back

[yoda]

We are bringing sexy back

MOD risk or bust

[mattie g]

I'm glad we don't have to deal with the sh*t they do in the Plains. As interesting as it is from a meteorological perspective, I'm not interested in the least in experiencing it first hand.

[Kmlwx]

LWX Re: tomorrow severe threat - 

 

 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE DAY EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY
FRONT AND 20-30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF
THE SFC WILL BEGIN MIXING DOWN. GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROPAGATE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MAY
STAY DRY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING CLOSE TO 90 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ONLY HELP WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THUNDERSTORMS
REACH THE AREA. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH FORMING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER
SOURCE OF LIFT WITH NO FORECASTED CAP SEEN IN FCST SOUNDINGS.
SLIGHT RISK BY SPC COVERS MOST OF THE LWX CWA SUNDAY. FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG AND 40-60 KTS OF SHEAR.
CURRENT THINKING OF THUNDERSTORM MODE WILL BE MORE DISCRETE CELLS
RATHER THAN LINEAR SEGMENTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WITH BULK SHEAR VECTOR OUT OF THE WEST.

 

[yoda]

Well... lets see how we do today....

 

0600z OTLK has N VA and NE in 15 hail/30 wind

[AmericanWxFreak]

New 1630 update pushes slight risk east and pulls 30% wind threat way north. Meh.

[Amped]

Tracking tstorms with the sterling radar down is fun

[mattie g]

Split.

[mappy]

Boring

[Ian]

lol