Ian Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 DC split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Severe discussion, folks. More general rain/non-severe storm obs should be in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Slight risk for panhandle of MD/WVa today. DC will see meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 SPC expands the slight risk a little more into our area - also LWX discussion hints at rough afternoon tomorrow. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 SPC expands the slight risk a little more into our area - also LWX discussion hints at rough afternoon tomorrow. We will see. Dramatic Tomorrow may be too widespread/messy. Setup is ok but lacking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 Dramatic Tomorrow may be too widespread/messy. Setup is ok but lacking too. I'm looking forward to two failure days. 90% chance of only garden variety showers and t'storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Maybe a flooding threat in some places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Next Monday (20th) or Tue looks kinda interesting. Maybe we'll miss one right off the bat this year... but this time while basking under an upper ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 1630 SLGT risk I-95 corridor and east for wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 there is some instability, shear, moisture, lift etc to be had today. if storms can get going there seems to be a legitimate chance at some severe reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 9 days ahead severe wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Still a pretty good signal for early next week. Yeah it's way out but a historically favorable look. Maybe we'll chase IA Sat, IN Sun and this area Mon before the next trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Tomorrow aftn looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Tomorrow aftn looks interesting. Looks like most of it will stay to our north tomorrow afternoon. We might be able to sneak a pop-up storm or two ahead of that main area, but it looks like central/southern PA will be the place to be tomorrow. Hopefully some of it holds together as it pushes south tomorrow night (see: GFS solution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Looks like most of it will stay to our north tomorrow afternoon. We might be able to sneak a pop-up storm or two ahead of that main area, but it looks like central/southern PA will be the place to be tomorrow. Hopefully some of it holds together as it pushes south tomorrow night (see: GFS solution). Yeah that's what I was thinking..just was looking around at things and shear/lapse rates were pretty good. Not really much in the way of upper level jet energy or support...but may have to watch a line push into the region early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Yeah that's what I was thinking..just was looking around at things and shear/lapse rates were pretty good. Not really much in the way of upper level jet energy or support...but may have to watch a line push into the region early evening. So long as we get some rain for the garden, I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 12z NAM is silly with regards to its soundings at 21z tomorrow at KIAD... fun to look at. Looks pretty much the same for KDCA and KBWI around 21z and into 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 No precip to go with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 No precip to go with it Damn it... it looked really nice though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Yesterday I bet MasterofDisaster that no big weather event will occur within the DC Metro region through this summer. Our bet ends September 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 16, 2013 Share Posted May 16, 2013 Yesterday I bet MasterofDisaster that no big weather event will occur within the DC Metro region through this summer. Our bet ends September 1st. He needs to post more, otherwise this bet is dumb cause we can't make fun of him if he loses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Perhaps Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Yesterday I bet MasterofDisaster that no big weather event will occur within the DC Metro region through this summer. Our bet ends September 1st. Define "big weather event" Severe storms? Tornado? Tropical Storm? Just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Perhaps Wednesday? You know with Ian and Mark gone, we will definitely have a tornado outbreak (remember last year?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Perhaps Wednesday? Plenty of CAPE, but shear will be veeeeeeeeeeeery weak. Quick glance of the 06z GFS forecast soundings for Wednesday has no more than 20-25 kt. speeds throughout the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Plenty of CAPE, but shear will be veeeeeeeeeeeery weak. Quick glance of the 06z GFS forecast soundings for Wednesday has no more than 20-25 kt. speeds throughout the atmosphere. Damn that blows... do you see any chance next week for any svr? Wed looked like the best day to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Damn that blows... do you see any chance next week for any svr? Wed looked like the best day to me There's definitely room for severe Wednesday and maybe Thursday, it's just the storms will probably be more pulse in nature, with spot coverage of hail and gusty winds. Don't really see any sort of organized threat forming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 6 days away talking about a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 6 days away talking about a storm Confidence is relatively good. Consistent on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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