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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Next Monday (20th) or Tue looks kinda interesting. Maybe we'll miss one right off the bat this year... but this time while basking under an upper ridge. :(

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Still a pretty good signal for early next week. Yeah it's way out but a historically favorable look.

Maybe we'll chase IA Sat, IN Sun and this area Mon before the next trough. :P

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow aftn looks interesting.

Looks like most of it will stay to our north tomorrow afternoon. We might be able to sneak a pop-up storm or two ahead of that main area, but it looks like central/southern PA will be the place to be tomorrow. Hopefully some of it holds together as it pushes south tomorrow night (see: GFS solution).

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Looks like most of it will stay to our north tomorrow afternoon. We might be able to sneak a pop-up storm or two ahead of that main area, but it looks like central/southern PA will be the place to be tomorrow. Hopefully some of it holds together as it pushes south tomorrow night (see: GFS solution).

 

Yeah that's what I was thinking..just was looking around at things and shear/lapse rates were pretty good. Not really much in the way of upper level jet energy or support...but may have to watch a line push into the region early evening.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Yeah that's what I was thinking..just was looking around at things and shear/lapse rates were pretty good. Not really much in the way of upper level jet energy or support...but may have to watch a line push into the region early evening.

So long as we get some rain for the garden, I'm happy.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

Yesterday I bet MasterofDisaster that no big weather event will occur within the DC Metro region through this summer.  Our bet ends September 1st.  

 

He needs to post more, otherwise this bet is dumb cause we can't make fun of him if he loses

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Plenty of CAPE, but shear will be veeeeeeeeeeeery weak. Quick glance of the 06z GFS forecast soundings for Wednesday has no more than 20-25 kt. speeds throughout the atmosphere.

 

Damn that blows... do you see any chance next week for any svr?  Wed looked like the best day to me

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Damn that blows... do you see any chance next week for any svr?  Wed looked like the best day to me

There's definitely room for severe Wednesday and maybe Thursday, it's just the storms will probably be more pulse in nature, with spot coverage of hail and gusty winds. Don't really see any sort of organized threat forming.

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Avdave

Avdave

Posted
Posted

Confidence is relatively good. Consistent on the models.

 

 

So were many others that were consistent only to Fail lol

 

if it was snow, you know we would be talking about it :lol: But, I am kind of bored with no real severe weather here so far besides that one day in April

thats different if it was snow :P

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Pity meso:

 

Link:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0783.html

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA...MD...SRN PA...NRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231937Z - 232030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCTD SVR TSTMS WITH AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 23Z. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...SCTD STG/SVR TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
MTNS THIS AFTN WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MLCAPE
VALUES AVERAGE AROUND 1000 J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE MORE
PERSISTENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXIST. MESOANALYSIS AND AREA VWP
DATA SHOW MODEST 0-6 KM SHEAR AVERAGING 30 KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED TSTMS. PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. AN
ISOLD LARGE HAIL REPORT IS ALSO POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVER NRN VA WHERE SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW.
THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFT 23Z AS DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.

..BUNTING/KERR.. 05/23/2013


ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 39657821 40477767 40657689 40457591 40047559 39467575
38037661 36627785 36597860 36797934 37527955 39657821

 

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