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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

SPC expands the slight risk a little more into our area - also LWX discussion hints at rough afternoon tomorrow. We will see.

Dramatic

Tomorrow may be too widespread/messy. Setup is ok but lacking too.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Next Monday (20th) or Tue looks kinda interesting. Maybe we'll miss one right off the bat this year... but this time while basking under an upper ridge. :(

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Still a pretty good signal for early next week. Yeah it's way out but a historically favorable look.

Maybe we'll chase IA Sat, IN Sun and this area Mon before the next trough. :P

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow aftn looks interesting.

Looks like most of it will stay to our north tomorrow afternoon. We might be able to sneak a pop-up storm or two ahead of that main area, but it looks like central/southern PA will be the place to be tomorrow. Hopefully some of it holds together as it pushes south tomorrow night (see: GFS solution).

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Looks like most of it will stay to our north tomorrow afternoon. We might be able to sneak a pop-up storm or two ahead of that main area, but it looks like central/southern PA will be the place to be tomorrow. Hopefully some of it holds together as it pushes south tomorrow night (see: GFS solution).

 

Yeah that's what I was thinking..just was looking around at things and shear/lapse rates were pretty good. Not really much in the way of upper level jet energy or support...but may have to watch a line push into the region early evening.

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted

Yeah that's what I was thinking..just was looking around at things and shear/lapse rates were pretty good. Not really much in the way of upper level jet energy or support...but may have to watch a line push into the region early evening.

So long as we get some rain for the garden, I'm happy.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

Yesterday I bet MasterofDisaster that no big weather event will occur within the DC Metro region through this summer.  Our bet ends September 1st.  

 

He needs to post more, otherwise this bet is dumb cause we can't make fun of him if he loses

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Plenty of CAPE, but shear will be veeeeeeeeeeeery weak. Quick glance of the 06z GFS forecast soundings for Wednesday has no more than 20-25 kt. speeds throughout the atmosphere.

 

Damn that blows... do you see any chance next week for any svr?  Wed looked like the best day to me

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Damn that blows... do you see any chance next week for any svr?  Wed looked like the best day to me

There's definitely room for severe Wednesday and maybe Thursday, it's just the storms will probably be more pulse in nature, with spot coverage of hail and gusty winds. Don't really see any sort of organized threat forming.

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