Ellinwood Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Please note that I am discussing STRONG TO SEVERE winds, not just widespread severe. I would think gusts to 40-50+ mph are a good bet with the frontal passage so long as there's no major timing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Please note that I am discussing STRONG TO SEVERE winds, not just widespread severe. I would think gusts to 40-50+ mph are a good bet with the frontal passage so long as there's no major timing issues.snow peeps are angry that we're living through our worst snow period in history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 snow peeps are angry that we're living through our worst snow period in history Paying out through the nose for 09-10 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Check out the sfc-925mb bulk shear really ramps up (50-55kts) over eastern VA as DP's in the 60's surge into the warm sector. 925mb winds are now 75+kts on the 12z GFS (over eastern VA/Delmarva region) and with the chance of any thunderstorm bringing some of those winds to the surface. Maybe we'll see our first tor. warning of the year perhaps? I'm going to remain pessimistic though; It is the Mid Atlantic we are talking about.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 im highly skeptical we'll get 60 degree dewpoints this far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 LWX did mention threat for damaging wind gusts in AFD and HWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 RNK afternoon AFD also mentions the possibility of damaging winds.. THE SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND WIND DRIVEN AND SPC HAS US IN ANOUTLOOK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY. ON THE SIDE FAVORINGSEVERE IS THE WIND ENERGY WITH 70+ KNOT LLJ MOVING FROM TN/OH VALLEYWED MORNING TO DELMARVA AT 18Z WED...WITH SECONDARY WIND MAX PUSHINGFROM UPSTATE SC TO ERN VA IN THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS TOP OF THECHARTS PER HODOGRAPHS. CONDITIONS INHIBITING SVR ARE WEAK LAPSERATES...LOTS OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPE.HOWEVER...CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A CASE WHERE SOME OF THESHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT BRING DOWN GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ORMORE...SIMILAR TO SOME OF THE EVENTS WE GET IN LATE FEB-MARCH...WHERE THUNDER IS LIMITED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 im highly skeptical we'll get 60 degree dewpoints this far north I would think dews of 55-60+ could/should work into DC. Not to give the models too much credit, but they've been consistent in bringing such dewpoints into the area. Winds are generally going to be out of the south/southwest from now up until then... plenty of time to advect those kind of numbers in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 This has a chance to be the best event of the winter. Parameters look absolutely anomalous. Welcome to severe season ladies and gentlemen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 If only we had better CAPE... 00z NAM looks threatening Wed evening wind-wise. SRH through the roof, but I dont think there will be a tor threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 If only we had better CAPE... 00z NAM looks threatening Wed evening wind-wise. SRH through the roof, but I dont think there will be a tor threatwe'll get one of those pencil thin lines without thunder probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'd be content with some sort of squall line event. It's been too long since my last boomer (it probably won't even thunder) and I'm itching for something other than cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Lol at some wind gusts and rain being severe. And people say snow weenies Are bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Lol at some wind gusts and rain being severe. And people say snow weenies Are bad After that, the debate will be between partly cloudy or mostly clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 ^ Yawn In other news.. They dropped the risk up here. Not that surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I want a winter derecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 And here I was thinking the GFS got a little bit better looking for wind transfer (still appreciable moisture advection with less of an inversion). Yesterday, the inversion was pretty strong, especially up my way of course and it still is to some extent this morning (the coastal areas are worse). But today, I could see surface parcels rising with a strong front like this one; however, I hate when the vort max pulls north quickly within the trough and brings in a bit of anticyclonic shear/subsidence. Too many mixed signals it seems (also a slight timing issue with various features) but some wind gusts to near severe limits in convective showers still seems possible for N VA-MD-PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Pwats 1.5 in late January. Sure, why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 I want a winter derecho I'm gunning for a snowrecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 LWX afternoon AFD THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ANDISOLATED T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE INVERSIONAPPEARS THAT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVEREWEATHER...BUT THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST A COUPLE THOUSANDFEET FROM THE SURFACE /50-60KT/. A HEAVIER SHOWER OR T-STORM WILLHAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DRAG THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 18z NAM shows some minimal SBCAPE and MLCAPE (~ 100 J/KG SBCAPE and ~ 200 MLCAPE)... as well as a slightly negative LI for 21z Wed to 00z Thursday... first time I have seen those show up. ML Lapse Rates get up to 6.0 C/KM. Could be a lil windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 free weatherbell models for storm: http://models.weatherbell.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 The color tables on sim reflectivity on the weatherbell site are HORRIBLE. Very overexaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The color tables on sim reflectivity on the weatherbell site are HORRIBLE. Very overexaggerated. lol i was thinking of mentioning that to him on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 lol i was thinking of mentioning that to him on twitter Before I looked at the table I was like omg.......death. It looks like a mega derecho with that table lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The color tables on sim reflectivity on the weatherbell site are HORRIBLE. Very overexaggerated. You're right. The reds are only 40-50 dbz. At my first glance I was thinking we were gonna be raked with a mess of storms that were 60+ dbz. Very deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 You're right. The reds are only 40-50 dbz. At my first glance I was thinking we were gonna be raked with a mess of storms that were 60+ dbz. Very deceiving. I think Ian's pencil thin line call is a good one. We'll probably have a 50mph gust reported somewhere in our area. Tornado probs aren't good at all. Squally weather but nothing too serious seems reasonable. Of course...now that I'v said that the NAM will come in with massive tornado potential and SPC will issue a 30% tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I can see a QLCS if we get lucky... but it will likely be showers with gusty winds... though there are some decent winds just off the deck - 60 kts between 850 and 925 mb - that could be brought down tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I think Ian's pencil thin line call is a good one. We'll probably have a 50mph gust reported somewhere in our area. Tornado probs aren't good at all. Squally weather but nothing too serious seems reasonable. Of course...now that I'v said that the NAM will come in with massive tornado potential and SPC will issue a 30% tomorrow It's tricky. If we actually get solidly into the warm sector we might have some potential.. Mainly wind. The inversion is less or even non existent on recent runs up into the DC area.. Which would at least allow some wids to mix down. I could see 30% wind as far north as DC if we max potential tho 15% should cut it. S Va and NC have a bit better odds probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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