Ellinwood Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 So close to the Slight... ...CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTN IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...SUPPORTED BY NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE WITH 50S TO SPOTTY 60S F SFC DEW POINTS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...FCST HODOGRAPHS DO SHOW ENOUGH CURVATURE S AND SE OF SFC LOW TO INDICATE SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR ANY RELATIVELY ISOLATED/DISCRETE/PERSISTENT TSTMS. MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS LOCALLY FOCUSING SVR RISK. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST DEEP SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE GENERALLY AOB 35 KT IN FCST SOUNDINGS. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 8, 2013 Author Share Posted May 8, 2013 So close to the Slight... ...CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTN IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...SUPPORTED BY NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE WITH 50S TO SPOTTY 60S F SFC DEW POINTS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...FCST HODOGRAPHS DO SHOW ENOUGH CURVATURE S AND SE OF SFC LOW TO INDICATE SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR ANY RELATIVELY ISOLATED/DISCRETE/PERSISTENT TSTMS. MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS LOCALLY FOCUSING SVR RISK. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST DEEP SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE GENERALLY AOB 35 KT IN FCST SOUNDINGS. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK. Maybe we can get it extended into our area for a token slight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Maybe we can get it extended into our area for a token slight Eh... parameters have never been terribly impressive in the region. Given the timing, I don't know if we will manage the Slight or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I wonder if ill ever hear thunder again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 An eyebrow was raised yesterday with the more southern SLP track, better wind fields and sufficient moisture return. But the 00z runs and 6z GFS have shifted north and lost their more interesting look. We'll see if we can get more amplification out of the lead s/w on today's 12z runs but I didn't like the way this morning's data went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 An eyebrow was raised yesterday with the more southern SLP track, better wind fields and sufficient moisture return. But the 00z runs and 6z GFS have shifted north and lost their more interesting look. We'll see if we can get more amplification out of the lead s/w on today's 12z runs but I didn't like the way this morning's data went. What about later next week along the periphery of that ridge ejecting out of the plains. Could we have a little MCS pattern for a day or 2 in the midwest and maybe to the mid-atl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 What about later next week along the periphery of that ridge ejecting out of the plains. Could we have a little MCS pattern for a day or 2 in the midwest and maybe to the mid-atl? That idea I think has merit. The GFS suite is quick to break the wave / bring a cutoff because the modeling is quickly propagating the MJO into phase 6-7. While possible, I think that is the more unlikely solution. Something like that would probably prevent the best thermodynamics from getting to us. The ECMWF on the other hand.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I wonder if ill ever hear thunder again I'm pretty sure I heard thunder last night. Or at least that's what I thought the dog was barking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I'm pretty sure I heard thunder last night. Or at least that's what I thought the dog was barking at.You prob did. The cell kinda just missed here but there was thunder in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 That idea I think has merit. The GFS suite is quick to break the wave / bring a cutoff because the modeling is quickly propagating the MJO into phase 6-7. While possible, I think that is the more unlikely solution. Something like that would probably prevent the best thermodynamics from getting to us. The ECMWF on the other hand.... Yeahhh ok I think I see what you are saying using Alan's/raleighwx's composites for 5-6-7 in May.. Before then though I do not see how the phase 4 composite lines up with the pattern over the next few days (ie the north pacific and +PNA around day 5), but i suppose we can turn to other forcing to explain that... I'm personally been having a little trouble lining up the modeled patterns with the projected MJO propogation of late. I have different looking composites from other sources which doesnt help, but I guess alan's 5-6-7 do look similar to the euro/gfs solutions of late for later next week.. Though in terms of the gfs being a quick propogation into 6-7, not sure I see that on the phase diagrams..looks like it just weakens it and gets it towards 6-7 in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I wonder if ill ever hear thunder again Nope, never. Especially while chasing in a few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 You prob did. The cell kinda just missed here but there was thunder in it. Good bit of thunder and lightning here last night, from cell 10 miles south in Manassas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I'm pretty sure I heard thunder last night. Or at least that's what I thought the dog was barking at. I heard a lot of it from about 10:15-10:45. Some cloud-to-cloud lightning pretty close by. The dog was *not* happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Nice to see the sun this morning. I'm going to transplant my second set of beets this evening so I'm hoping the soil dries out somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Humid feeling with the sun out in Balt. No idea if that is helpful in this instance for a few storms to pop this pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Of course didn't break through yesterday, but it felt like the air was a little heavy when it wasn't raining. Now that this morning has had some Sunshine, it feels a little humid outside. Very beautiful morning here all around with mostly sunny giving way to some cloudiness now as the day continues. Has one of those modest shear days where you wonder whether or not you break into sunshine and develop instability. But seems to me that widespread showers is the more likely scenario this afternoon. Some of the clouds look to be growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Severe discussion, folks. More general rain/non-severe storm obs should be in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Thunder! Woohoo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 It looks like it might severely rain here in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 STW in Balt City & Co... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... WESTERN BALTIMORE CITY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND... NORTHERN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... EASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 335 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR CANTON... AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BOLTON HILL... WOODLAWN... DRUID HILLS PARK... HOWARD PARK... GUILFORD... LOCHEARN... FALLSTAFF... ROLAND PARK... HOMELAND... PIKESVILLE... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 It looks like it might severely rain here in a bit I've got some severe clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 My radarscope suggests hail is falling with storm heading this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 This is going to make for a fun drive home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I <3 VCP 80 on enabled 1-min TDWR's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I've got some severe clouds Severe Cloud Warnings should be issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I <3 VCP 80 on enabled 1-min TDWR's So awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 2 mPing's of quarter inch hail in downtown and 1 spotter report of 1" hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 495 is a mess... dad reported nickel sized hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Hail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I called in hail in Balt city, only penny size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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