yoda Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Fredericksburg Time: 2013-04-19 22:36 UTC Event: 0 TORNADO Source: nws storm survey Remark: ef-1 tornado confirmed by nws storm survey. peak winds 90 mph. path length 0.75 mile. max path width 150 yards. apartment building unroofed. trees uprooted and topped. shopping plaza roof damaged. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 958 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA... LOCATION...CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA DATE...APRIL 19 2013 ESTIMATED TIME...6:36 PM TO 6:37 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARD PATH LENGTH...0.75 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...38.30N / 77.49W ENDING LAT/LON...38.31N / 77.49W * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ...SUMMARY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO STRUCK THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA ON APRIL 19 2013 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90 MPH. THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT 6:36 PM EDT ON THE WESTWOOD SHOPPING PLAZA...RIPPING OFF ROOFING MATERIALS AND VENTILATION UNITS. IT TRAVELED NORTHEAST THROUGH A RESIDENTIAL AREA UPROOTING AND TOPPING TREES AND CAUSING ROOFING DAMAGE. THE TORNADO PASSED JUST WEST OF THE MERCER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND ADJACENT POLICE BARRACKS...RIPPING THE ROOF OFF OF AN APARTMENT BUILDING ALONG COWAN BLVD AND THROWING IT ACROSS THE STREET. A LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICER SAW THE TORNADO CROSS COWAN BLVD AND THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHED MARY WASHINGTON HOSPITAL AT 6:37 PM. THE TOTAL PATH LENGTH WAS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EXTENDS ITS GRATITUDE TO CITY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FROM THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 Did a little looking into weak tor that have killed people. This one (F1) was intense: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/events/whippoorwill.php Guess you don't want to be boating during a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Got the TDWR files. Looks like the cirulation lasted about 2 minutes from the TDCA vantage point. The highest velocity was at 22:39:35z with 107 kts at 1818ft above radar elevation. The largest gate to gate was -104/-31.1 kts (72.9 kts) at 22:38:43 at 1972ft above radar elevation at the intersection of the Rappahannock river and US Rt. 1. Remember with the elevation the radar is looking at, the radar is looking downshear of the tornado. So given the location of the highest velocities, its right on track with the actual track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Largo, MD Time: 2013-04-19 23:26 UTCEvent: 0 TORNADOSource: nws storm surveyRemark: ef-0 tornado confirmed. path length 0.5 mile. max path width 75 yards. max winds 85 mph. several trees uprooted and snapped. several homes had roofing and siding damage. few windows blown out. 2 homes had garage doors blown out....1 resulting in side wall of garage being blown out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 000NOUS41 KLWX 222052PNSLWXDCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050>057-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-230900-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC452 PM EDT MON APR 22 2013...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR LARGO IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY MARYLAND...LOCATION...3 SSE OF LARGO IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY MARYLANDDATE...APRIL 19 2013ESTIMATED TIME...7:26 PM EDTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-0ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDSPATH LENGTH...0.5 MILESBEGINNING LAT/LON...38.837N / 76.813WENDING LAT/LON...38.843N / 76.807W* FATALITIES...0* INJURIES...0* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION INNWS STORM DATA....SUMMARY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC HASCONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR LARGO IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY MARYLANDON APRIL 19 2013.AT 7:26 PM A BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO WITH PEAK WINDS OF 85 MPH TOUCHEDDOWN IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN THE MARLBORO RIDGE SUBDIVISIONOFF RITCHIE MARLBORO ROAD. THE TORNADO UPROOTED AND SNAPPEDSEVERAL TREES. IT ALSO DAMAGED THREE HOMES...BLOWING OUT WINDOWSAND GARAGE DOORS. ONE HOME HAD A SIDE WALL OF THE GARAGE BLOWN OUTWHEN WIND ENTERED THE GARAGE THROUGH THE DAMAGED DOOR. SEVERALOTHER HOMES ON BOTH SIDES OF RITCHIE MARLBORO ROAD HAD MINORSIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. THE TORNADO TRAVELLED A HALF MILEBEFORE LIFTING AND LASTED LESS THAN A MINUTE.THANKS TO PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIRASSISTANCE.THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE ATWEATHER.GOV/WASHINGTON.FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOESINTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I went back and looked at NCDC radar. That cell tracked from near cho to west of Trenton mostly independent (as a line segment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 5% see text for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 5% see text for tomorrow. SPC discussion mentioned surface moisture was overdone on the 00z models (with the same if not slightly higher dewpoints on the 06z run). I agree to a point, but with the models going upper 50s to lower 60s and the SPC suggesting lower 50s at most, there's probably room for compromise between those two ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I went back and looked at NCDC radar. That cell tracked from near cho to west of Trenton mostly independent (as a line segment). I find it interesting that your area (LWX) saw 2 tornadoes confirmed (along with a few "high-end" severe wind reports) while the storm south of your area was classified non-tornadic. I thought for sure, given the radar signatures and initial damage reports of "structural damage" that the Clarksville storm would end up a tornado. But they determined that it was mainly trees falling into houses and the trees fell in the same direction throughout the area. What did get reported, that represented that beautiful supercell well, was ping pong-sized hail. So as it turns out, your area's tornado watch was a good move after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I find it interesting that your area (LWX) saw 2 tornadoes confirmed (along with a few "high-end" severe wind reports) while the storm south of your area was classified non-tornadic. I thought for sure, given the radar signatures and initial damage reports of "structural damage" that the Clarksville storm would end up a tornado. But they determined that it was mainly trees falling into houses and the trees fell in the same direction throughout the area. What did get reported, that represented that beautiful supercell well, was ping pong-sized hail. So as it turns out, your area's tornado watch was a good move after all. The Clarksville storm had everything going for it... isolated, pre-frontal, right mover. Very surprised no tornado was confirmed. Bill Hark was on the storm starting around South Hill (just northeast of Clarksville) and caught a wall cloud but never saw a tornado: https://twitter.com/WTHark/status/325418604063510528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 DCA TDWR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Radar files for these events are up on my website if you want to download them. http://www.wxmeddler.com/radardata/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 C MD/E WV may see a watch later this afternon per latest MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 SPC discussion mentioned surface moisture was overdone on the 00z models (with the same if not slightly higher dewpoints on the 06z run). I agree to a point, but with the models going upper 50s to lower 60s and the SPC suggesting lower 50s at most, there's probably room for compromise between those two ranges. Most stations in the area of interest reporting dews in the low 50s... kudos SPC. I'll be happy with some lightning flashes IMBY with this setup, though not getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 i'd yawn if it wasn't too much effort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 i'd yawn if it wasn't too much effort Perhaps a "meh" would suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 The Panhandle region loves giving storms a little orographic enhancement to create some spin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 i'd yawn if it wasn't too much effort Nothing really look intriguing for us for next 10 days svr wise... oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Nothing really look intriguing for us for next 10 days svr wise... oh wellSevere weather is a thing of the past. Hope you enjoyed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Ouch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Severe weather is a thing of the past. Hope you enjoyed it. So is snow. And i don't remember it well enough to know if I enjoyed it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Might not even get a shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Might not even get a shower I got a sprinkle and lots of wind, naturally. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Severe fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Severe fail This will be the theme for the next 5 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Ouch.. f228.gif If this sets us up for another '09 - '10 that's fine by me, otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Some boomer potential Thursday and Friday (mostly Friday). Decent CAPE in the 750-1500 J/kg range Friday via the GFS, but shear is kinda weak as the strongest winds between the surface and 500mb is only 25 kts. Still could be enough for some stronger storms... maybe isolated severe. Right now Friday looks like a 5%/See Text kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Some boomer potential Thursday and Friday (mostly Friday). Decent CAPE in the 750-1500 J/kg range Friday via the GFS, but shear is kinda weak as the strongest winds between the surface and 500mb is only 25 kts. Still could be enough for some stronger storms... maybe isolated severe. Right now Friday looks like a 5%/See Text kind of day. Central VA prob per LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 All I care about is getting 55 degree dew points into Wyoming in 13 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Low hail threat mostly for VA today. Similar setup to what was in NC yesterday: ...MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHERMOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S TO NEAR 60FSURFACE DEW POINTS/ ACROSS THE VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONTINTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THEMID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILLLAG TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MORE MOIST LOW-LEVELENVIRONMENT...COOLING ON ITS LEADING EDGE MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TOFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL INSCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTEDTO BE MARGINAL FOR APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...HAILOCCASIONALLY REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA MAY NOT BE OUT OF THEQUESTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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