Kmlwx Posted April 23, 2013 Author Share Posted April 23, 2013 5% see text for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 5% see text for tomorrow. SPC discussion mentioned surface moisture was overdone on the 00z models (with the same if not slightly higher dewpoints on the 06z run). I agree to a point, but with the models going upper 50s to lower 60s and the SPC suggesting lower 50s at most, there's probably room for compromise between those two ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I went back and looked at NCDC radar. That cell tracked from near cho to west of Trenton mostly independent (as a line segment). I find it interesting that your area (LWX) saw 2 tornadoes confirmed (along with a few "high-end" severe wind reports) while the storm south of your area was classified non-tornadic. I thought for sure, given the radar signatures and initial damage reports of "structural damage" that the Clarksville storm would end up a tornado. But they determined that it was mainly trees falling into houses and the trees fell in the same direction throughout the area. What did get reported, that represented that beautiful supercell well, was ping pong-sized hail. So as it turns out, your area's tornado watch was a good move after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 I find it interesting that your area (LWX) saw 2 tornadoes confirmed (along with a few "high-end" severe wind reports) while the storm south of your area was classified non-tornadic. I thought for sure, given the radar signatures and initial damage reports of "structural damage" that the Clarksville storm would end up a tornado. But they determined that it was mainly trees falling into houses and the trees fell in the same direction throughout the area. What did get reported, that represented that beautiful supercell well, was ping pong-sized hail. So as it turns out, your area's tornado watch was a good move after all. The Clarksville storm had everything going for it... isolated, pre-frontal, right mover. Very surprised no tornado was confirmed. Bill Hark was on the storm starting around South Hill (just northeast of Clarksville) and caught a wall cloud but never saw a tornado: https://twitter.com/WTHark/status/325418604063510528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 23, 2013 Share Posted April 23, 2013 DCA TDWR: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Radar files for these events are up on my website if you want to download them. http://www.wxmeddler.com/radardata/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 C MD/E WV may see a watch later this afternon per latest MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 SPC discussion mentioned surface moisture was overdone on the 00z models (with the same if not slightly higher dewpoints on the 06z run). I agree to a point, but with the models going upper 50s to lower 60s and the SPC suggesting lower 50s at most, there's probably room for compromise between those two ranges. Most stations in the area of interest reporting dews in the low 50s... kudos SPC. I'll be happy with some lightning flashes IMBY with this setup, though not getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 i'd yawn if it wasn't too much effort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 i'd yawn if it wasn't too much effort Perhaps a "meh" would suffice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 The Panhandle region loves giving storms a little orographic enhancement to create some spin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 i'd yawn if it wasn't too much effort Nothing really look intriguing for us for next 10 days svr wise... oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Nothing really look intriguing for us for next 10 days svr wise... oh wellSevere weather is a thing of the past. Hope you enjoyed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Ouch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 24, 2013 Share Posted April 24, 2013 Severe weather is a thing of the past. Hope you enjoyed it. So is snow. And i don't remember it well enough to know if I enjoyed it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Might not even get a shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Might not even get a shower I got a sprinkle and lots of wind, naturally. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Severe fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Severe fail This will be the theme for the next 5 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Ouch.. f228.gif If this sets us up for another '09 - '10 that's fine by me, otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Some boomer potential Thursday and Friday (mostly Friday). Decent CAPE in the 750-1500 J/kg range Friday via the GFS, but shear is kinda weak as the strongest winds between the surface and 500mb is only 25 kts. Still could be enough for some stronger storms... maybe isolated severe. Right now Friday looks like a 5%/See Text kind of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Some boomer potential Thursday and Friday (mostly Friday). Decent CAPE in the 750-1500 J/kg range Friday via the GFS, but shear is kinda weak as the strongest winds between the surface and 500mb is only 25 kts. Still could be enough for some stronger storms... maybe isolated severe. Right now Friday looks like a 5%/See Text kind of day. Central VA prob per LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 All I care about is getting 55 degree dew points into Wyoming in 13 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Low hail threat mostly for VA today. Similar setup to what was in NC yesterday: ...MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHERMOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S TO NEAR 60FSURFACE DEW POINTS/ ACROSS THE VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONTINTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THEMID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILLLAG TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MORE MOIST LOW-LEVELENVIRONMENT...COOLING ON ITS LEADING EDGE MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TOFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL INSCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTEDTO BE MARGINAL FOR APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...HAILOCCASIONALLY REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA MAY NOT BE OUT OF THEQUESTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 So close to the Slight... ...CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTN IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...SUPPORTED BY NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE WITH 50S TO SPOTTY 60S F SFC DEW POINTS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...FCST HODOGRAPHS DO SHOW ENOUGH CURVATURE S AND SE OF SFC LOW TO INDICATE SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR ANY RELATIVELY ISOLATED/DISCRETE/PERSISTENT TSTMS. MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS LOCALLY FOCUSING SVR RISK. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST DEEP SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE GENERALLY AOB 35 KT IN FCST SOUNDINGS. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 8, 2013 Author Share Posted May 8, 2013 So close to the Slight... ...CENTRAL/NRN APPALACHIANS REGION... SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING AFTN IN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC FRONT...SUPPORTED BY NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE WITH 50S TO SPOTTY 60S F SFC DEW POINTS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...FCST HODOGRAPHS DO SHOW ENOUGH CURVATURE S AND SE OF SFC LOW TO INDICATE SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL FOR ANY RELATIVELY ISOLATED/DISCRETE/PERSISTENT TSTMS. MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE...WITH BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS LOCALLY FOCUSING SVR RISK. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE LACK OF MORE ROBUST DEEP SHEAR...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE GENERALLY AOB 35 KT IN FCST SOUNDINGS. SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AFTER DARK. Maybe we can get it extended into our area for a token slight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Maybe we can get it extended into our area for a token slight Eh... parameters have never been terribly impressive in the region. Given the timing, I don't know if we will manage the Slight or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 I wonder if ill ever hear thunder again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 An eyebrow was raised yesterday with the more southern SLP track, better wind fields and sufficient moisture return. But the 00z runs and 6z GFS have shifted north and lost their more interesting look. We'll see if we can get more amplification out of the lead s/w on today's 12z runs but I didn't like the way this morning's data went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 An eyebrow was raised yesterday with the more southern SLP track, better wind fields and sufficient moisture return. But the 00z runs and 6z GFS have shifted north and lost their more interesting look. We'll see if we can get more amplification out of the lead s/w on today's 12z runs but I didn't like the way this morning's data went. What about later next week along the periphery of that ridge ejecting out of the plains. Could we have a little MCS pattern for a day or 2 in the midwest and maybe to the mid-atl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.