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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Fredericksburg

 

Time: 2013-04-19 22:36 UTC

Event: 0 TORNADO

Source: nws storm survey

Remark: ef-1 tornado confirmed by nws storm survey. peak winds 90 mph. path length 0.75 mile. max path width 150 yards. apartment building unroofed. trees uprooted and topped. shopping plaza roof damaged.

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

958 PM EDT SAT APR 20 2013

...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA...

LOCATION...CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA

DATE...APRIL 19 2013

ESTIMATED TIME...6:36 PM TO 6:37 PM EDT

MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-1

ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH

MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARD

PATH LENGTH...0.75 MILES

BEGINNING LAT/LON...38.30N / 77.49W

ENDING LAT/LON...38.31N / 77.49W

* FATALITIES...0

* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO

CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN

NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC HAS CONFIRMED

A TORNADO STRUCK THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG VIRGINIA ON APRIL 19

2013 WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90 MPH.

THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT 6:36 PM EDT ON THE WESTWOOD SHOPPING

PLAZA...RIPPING OFF ROOFING MATERIALS AND VENTILATION UNITS. IT

TRAVELED NORTHEAST THROUGH A RESIDENTIAL AREA UPROOTING AND

TOPPING TREES AND CAUSING ROOFING DAMAGE. THE TORNADO PASSED JUST

WEST OF THE MERCER ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND ADJACENT POLICE

BARRACKS...RIPPING THE ROOF OFF OF AN APARTMENT BUILDING ALONG

COWAN BLVD AND THROWING IT ACROSS THE STREET. A LAW ENFORCEMENT

OFFICER SAW THE TORNADO CROSS COWAN BLVD AND THEN DISSIPATE BEFORE

IT REACHED MARY WASHINGTON HOSPITAL AT 6:37 PM. THE TOTAL PATH

LENGTH WAS THREE QUARTERS OF A MILE.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EXTENDS ITS GRATITUDE TO CITY

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FROM THE CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG FOR THEIR

ASSISTANCE.

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wxmeddler

wxmeddler

Posted
Posted

Got the TDWR files. Looks like the cirulation lasted about 2 minutes from the TDCA vantage point. The highest velocity was at 22:39:35z with 107 kts at 1818ft above radar elevation. The largest gate to gate was -104/-31.1 kts (72.9 kts) at 22:38:43 at 1972ft above radar elevation at the intersection of the Rappahannock river and US Rt. 1. Remember with the elevation the radar is looking at, the radar is looking downshear of the tornado. So given the location of the highest velocities, its right on track with the actual track.

fredricksburgvatornado2.gif

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Largo, MD

 

Time: 2013-04-19 23:26 UTC
Event: 0 TORNADO
Source: nws storm survey
Remark: ef-0 tornado confirmed. path length 0.5 mile. max path width 75 yards. max winds 85 mph. several trees uprooted and snapped. several homes had roofing and siding damage. few windows blown out. 2 homes had garage doors blown out....1 resulting in side wall of garage being blown out.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

000
NOUS41 KLWX 222052
PNSLWX
DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ025>031-
036>040-042-050>057-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-230900-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
452 PM EDT MON APR 22 2013

...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR LARGO IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY MARYLAND...

LOCATION...3 SSE OF LARGO IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY MARYLAND
DATE...APRIL 19 2013
ESTIMATED TIME...7:26 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-0
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDS
PATH LENGTH...0.5 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...38.837N / 76.813W
ENDING LAT/LON...38.843N / 76.807W
* FATALITIES...0
* INJURIES...0

* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

...SUMMARY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC HAS
CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR LARGO IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY MARYLAND
ON APRIL 19 2013.

AT 7:26 PM A BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO WITH PEAK WINDS OF 85 MPH TOUCHED
DOWN IN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN THE MARLBORO RIDGE SUBDIVISION
OFF RITCHIE MARLBORO ROAD. THE TORNADO UPROOTED AND SNAPPED
SEVERAL TREES. IT ALSO DAMAGED THREE HOMES...BLOWING OUT WINDOWS
AND GARAGE DOORS. ONE HOME HAD A SIDE WALL OF THE GARAGE BLOWN OUT
WHEN WIND ENTERED THE GARAGE THROUGH THE DAMAGED DOOR. SEVERAL
OTHER HOMES ON BOTH SIDES OF RITCHIE MARLBORO ROAD HAD MINOR
SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. THE TORNADO TRAVELLED A HALF MILE
BEFORE LIFTING AND LASTED LESS THAN A MINUTE.

THANKS TO PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR
ASSISTANCE.

THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/WASHINGTON.

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.
EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.
EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.
EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.
EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.
EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

5% see text for tomorrow.

SPC discussion mentioned surface moisture was overdone on the 00z models (with the same if not slightly higher dewpoints on the 06z run). I agree to a point, but with the models going upper 50s to lower 60s and the SPC suggesting lower 50s at most, there's probably room for compromise between those two ranges.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

 

I went back and looked at NCDC radar. That cell tracked from near cho to west of Trenton mostly independent (as a line segment).

 

I find it interesting that your area (LWX) saw 2 tornadoes confirmed (along with a few "high-end" severe wind reports) while the storm south of your area was classified non-tornadic. I thought for sure, given the radar signatures and initial damage reports of "structural damage" that the Clarksville storm would end up a tornado. But they determined that it was mainly trees falling into houses and the trees fell in the same direction throughout the area. What did get reported, that represented that beautiful supercell well, was ping pong-sized hail.

So as it turns out, your area's tornado watch was a good move after all.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

I find it interesting that your area (LWX) saw 2 tornadoes confirmed (along with a few "high-end" severe wind reports) while the storm south of your area was classified non-tornadic. I thought for sure, given the radar signatures and initial damage reports of "structural damage" that the Clarksville storm would end up a tornado. But they determined that it was mainly trees falling into houses and the trees fell in the same direction throughout the area. What did get reported, that represented that beautiful supercell well, was ping pong-sized hail.

So as it turns out, your area's tornado watch was a good move after all.

The Clarksville storm had everything going for it... isolated, pre-frontal, right mover. Very surprised no tornado was confirmed.

Bill Hark was on the storm starting around South Hill (just northeast of Clarksville) and caught a wall cloud but never saw a tornado: https://twitter.com/WTHark/status/325418604063510528

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

SPC discussion mentioned surface moisture was overdone on the 00z models (with the same if not slightly higher dewpoints on the 06z run). I agree to a point, but with the models going upper 50s to lower 60s and the SPC suggesting lower 50s at most, there's probably room for compromise between those two ranges.

Most stations in the area of interest reporting dews in the low 50s... kudos SPC.

I'll be happy with some lightning flashes IMBY with this setup, though not getting my hopes up.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Some boomer potential Thursday and Friday (mostly Friday). Decent CAPE in the 750-1500 J/kg range Friday via the GFS, but shear is kinda weak as the strongest winds between the surface and 500mb is only 25 kts. Still could be enough for some stronger storms... maybe isolated severe. Right now Friday looks like a 5%/See Text kind of day.

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clueless

clueless

Posted
Posted

Some boomer potential Thursday and Friday (mostly Friday). Decent CAPE in the 750-1500 J/kg range Friday via the GFS, but shear is kinda weak as the strongest winds between the surface and 500mb is only 25 kts. Still could be enough for some stronger storms... maybe isolated severe. Right now Friday looks like a 5%/See Text kind of day.

Central VA prob per LWX.

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

Low hail threat mostly for VA today. Similar setup to what was in NC yesterday:

 

post-96-0-13444100-1367934747_thumb.gif

...MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHERMOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CURRENTLY CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S TO NEAR 60FSURFACE DEW POINTS/ ACROSS THE VIRGINIA COASTAL PLAIN AND PIEDMONTINTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.  ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THEMID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILLLAG TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MORE MOIST LOW-LEVELENVIRONMENT...COOLING ON ITS LEADING EDGE MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TOFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL INSCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTEDTO BE MARGINAL FOR APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...HAILOCCASIONALLY REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA MAY NOT BE OUT OF THEQUESTION.

post-96-0-07697100-1367934779_thumb.gif

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